POP releases popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison (2019-12-06)

Dec 6, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

POP releases popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces
and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison

Special Announcemens

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  1. POP’s usual practice is to issue releases before the middle and also the end of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. The popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison released today belong to the last of this survey series in 2019.
  1. Tentative release dates of remaining survey topics in 2019 are as follows:
  • December 10 (Tuesday) Popularity of CE and Principal Officials
  • December 17 (Tuesday) Ethnic identity
  • December 20 (Friday) Popularity of CE and SAR Government
  • December 23 (Monday) Society’s current conditions and Public Sentiment Index
  • December 30 (Monday) Year-end review

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,062 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late November. Results show that the 1st and 2nd places regarding people’s satisfaction with disciplinary forces go to the Fire Services Department and the Auxiliary Medical Service, with rating of 80.5 and 80.2 marks respectively. The 3rd to 8th ranks go to the Government Flying Service, the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Correctional Services Department and the Independent Commission Against Corruption. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 35.3 marks, with 40% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate stands at negative 38 percentage points. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 44.2 marks. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 3 percentage points. Other than the Auxiliary Medical Service, the popularity figures of all disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison have dropped significantly. Except the Fire Services Department, the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Immigration Department, the ratings of all disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are at record lows since the relevant questions were first asked in 2012 or 2013, while the net satisfaction rates of the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are at record lows since the relevant questions were first asked in 1997. The effective response rate of the survey is 67.7%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.2 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 21-26/11/2019
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size : 1,062 (including 531 landline and 531 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[1] : 67.7%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.2 at 95% confidence level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Latest satisfaction ratings of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 21-25/5/18 15-19/11/18 3-6/6/19 1-6/8/19 21-26/11/19 Latest change
Sample size 508-576 538-579 528-656 1,015 584650
Response rate 55.9% 67.9% 60.4% 62.8% 67.7%
Latest findings[5] Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recog %
Fire Services Department 84.1{1} 82.9{1} 83.1{1} 80.5+/-1.5{1} 99.2% -2.7[4]
Auxiliary Medical Service 79.8{3} 79.3{2} 77.4{3} 80.2+/-1.5{2} 96.1% +2.8[4]
Government Flying Service 79.9{2} 78.8{3} 77.9{2} 69.4+/-2.1{3} 89.7% -8.5[4]
Customs and Excise Department 75.6{4}[4] 74.1{4} 73.4{4} 68.7+/-1.6{4} 95.1% -4.7[4]
Immigration Department 73.7{5} 71.5{6}[4] [5] 70.2{5} 66.2+/-1.9{5} 94.1% -4.0[4]
Civil Aid Service 72.3{6}[4] 73.3{5} 69.9{6}[4] 63.9+/-2.1{6} 84.6% -6.1[4]
Correctional Services Department 68.8{8} 67.9{8} 66.2{8} 58.3+/-2.1{7} 84.6% -7.9[4]
Independent Commission Against Corruption 68.9{7}[4] 68.9{7} 67.7{7} 57.9+/-2.3{8} 92.8% -9.8[4]
Police Force 63.7{9}[4] 62.5{9} 61.0{9} 39.4[4] 35.3+/-3.1{9} 99.2% -4.1[4]
PLA Hong Kong Garrison 61.0[4] 57.8 56.8 44.2+/-3.2 82.9% -12.5[4]

[3] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the change would not have gone beyond the sampling error.

Latest satisfaction rates of the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison using the 5-point scale are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 14-16/11/17 21-25/5/18 15-19/11/18 3-6/6/19 21-26/11/19 Latest change
Sample size 590-741 542-566 557-576 594-638 598602
Response rate 62.8% 55.9% 67.9% 60.4% 67.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Satisfaction rate of the
Police Force[6]
59% 54%[7] 51% 50% 27+/-4% -23%[7]
Dissatisfaction rate of the
Police Force[6]
22% 28%[7] 28% 28% 65+/-4% +37%[7]
Net satisfaction rate 37% 26%[7] 23% 22% -38+/-7% -60%[7]
Mean value[6] 3.5 3.3[7] 3.3 3.2 2.2+/-0.1 -1.1[7]
Satisfaction rate of the
PLA Hong Kong Garrison[6]
52%[7] 50% 46% 49% 37+/-4% -12%[7]
Dissatisfaction rate of the
PLA Hong Kong Garrison[6]
8%[7] 10% 16%[7] 14% 33+/-4% +19%[7]
Net satisfaction rate 44%[7] 41% 30%[7] 35% 3+/-7% -32%[7]
Mean value[6] 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.0+/-0.1 -0.6[7]

[6] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.

[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Survey shows that the 1st and 2nd places regarding people’s satisfaction with disciplinary forces go to the Fire Services Department and the Auxiliary Medical Service, with rating of 80.5 and 80.2 marks respectively. The 3rd to 8th ranks go to the Government Flying Service, the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Correctional Services Department and the Independent Commission Against Corruption, with ratings at 69.4, 68.7, 66.2, 63.9, 58.3 and 57.9 marks respectively. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 35.3 marks, with 40% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among nine disciplinary forces. Its satisfaction rate is 27%, dissatisfaction rate 65%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 38 percentage points and a mean score of 2.2, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 44.2 marks. Its satisfaction rate is 37%, dissatisfaction rate 33%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 3 percentage points and a mean score of 3.0, meaning close to “half-half” in general. Other than the Auxiliary Medical Service, the popularity figures of all disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison have dropped significantly. Except the Fire Services Department, the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Immigration Department, the ratings of all disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are at record lows since the relevant questions were first asked in 2012 or 2013, while the net satisfaction rates of the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are at record lows since the relevant questions were first asked in 1997.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the earliest previous survey was conducted from 3 to 6 June, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 26 November, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures:

25/11/19 The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils.
20/11/19 The US Senate passes the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
19/11/19 The police continue to surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
19/11/19 The anti-mask law is ruled to be unconstitutional.
18/11/19 The police continue to surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
17/11/19 The police surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and clash violently with protesters.
16/11/19 The People’s Liberation Army clears roadblocks.
15/11/19 Protesters stay in the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
12/11/19 Violent conflicts between protestors and the police occur in the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
11/11/19 A traffic policeman fires three live rounds at a protester.
10/11/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
8/11/19 HKUST student who fell from height in Tseung Kwan O passes away.
6/11/19 Junius Ho is attacked with a knife.
2/11/19 Protests and conflicts break out on Hong Kong Island.
28/10/19 Journalists protest against police violence targeting journalists during police press conference.
25/10/19 The High Court grants an interim injunction to restrain unlawful publishing of the personal data of police officers and their family members.
23/10/19 Chan Tong-kai is released from prison.
4/10/19 The government officially enacts anti-mask law by invoking emergency law.
1/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong, the police shoots a protester with a live bullet in Tsuen Wan.

Data Analysis

Results of our survey shows that the 1st and 2nd places regarding people’s satisfaction with disciplinary forces go to the Fire Services Department and the Auxiliary Medical Service, with rating of 80.5 and 80.2 marks respectively. The 3rd to 8th ranks go to the Government Flying Service, the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Correctional Services Department and the Independent Commission Against Corruption. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 35.3 marks, with 40% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate stands at negative 38 percentage points. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 44.2 marks. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 3 percentage points. Other than the Auxiliary Medical Service, the popularity figures of all disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison have dropped significantly. Except the Fire Services Department, the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Immigration Department, the ratings of all disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are at record lows since the relevant questions were first asked in 2012 or 2013, while the net satisfaction rates of the Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are at record lows since the relevant questions were first asked in 1997.

 

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