POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials (2019-10-08)

Oct 8, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

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POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late September to early October. Results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 22.3 marks. Her net popularity is negative 65 percentage points. Both figures have registered record lows since she became CE. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.8 marks and net popularity is negative 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 26.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 42 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 69 percentage points. Apart from the net popularity of Paul Chan, the support rating and net popularity of all Secretaries of Departments have registered record lows since they took office. As for the Directors of Bureaux, apart from Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, all other 11 Directors have registered negative popularities. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone down and only 1 has gone up. Those of Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Development Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped 18, 12, 10, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Apart from Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, the net approval rates of all other Directors of Bureaux have registered record lows since they took office. The effective response rate of the survey is 64.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 30/9-3/10/2019
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,004 (including 504 landline and 500 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 64.5%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level
Weighting method[4] : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]     The landline and mobile sample ratio was revised to 2 to 1 in April 2018 and further revised to 1 to 1 in July 2019.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4]     In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 17-19/7/19 1-6/8/19 15-20/8/19 2-4/9/19 16-19/9/19 30/9-3/10/19 Latest change
Sample size 1,002 1,015 1,023 1,046 1,061 1,004
Response rate 59.8% 62.8% 68.5% 69.5% 69.5% 64.5%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 30.1[5] 27.9 24.6[5] 25.4 24.9 22.3+/-1.9 -2.6
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 21%[5] 20% 17% 19% 18% 15+/-2% -3%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 70%[5] 72% 76%[5] 75% 74% 80+/-3% +6%[5]
Net approval rate -49%[5] -51% -59%[5] -55% -57% -65+/-5% -8%[5]

[5]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 6-9/5/19 3-6/6/19 2-8/7/19 1-6/8/19 2-4/9/19 30/9-3/10/19 Latest change
Sample size 592-642 553-616 583-641 574-580 640-679 584-649
Response rate 63.2% 60.4% 67.4% 62.8% 69.5% 64.5%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 43.5 43.2 38.0[6] 40.1 32.1[6] 31.8+/-2.1 -0.3
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
23% 29%[6] 26% 28% 18%[6] 18+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
29% 32% 38%[6] 27%[6] 41%[6] 42+/-4% +1%
Net approval rate -6% -2% -12%[6] 1%[6] -23%[6] -24+/-6% -1%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 34.2[6] 36.1 29.5[6] 32.9[6] 28.0[6] 26.9+/-2.3 -1.1
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 16% 19% 17% 19% 19% 17+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 51% 47% 57%[6] 49%[6] 55% 59+/-4% +5%
Net approval rate -35% -28% -40%[6] -30%[6] -35% -42+/-6% -7%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 29.5[6] 29.5 21.6[6] 20.3 17.7 14.7+/-1.9 -3.0[6]
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 11%[6] 16%[6] 10%[6] 11% 10% 7+/-2% -3%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 52%[6] 56% 68%[6] 63% 68% 75+/-3% +7%[6]
Net approval rate -41%[6] -40% -58%[6] -53% -59% -69+/-5% -10%[6]

[6]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[7]:

Date of survey 2-8/7/19 1-6/8/19 2-4/9/19 30/9-3/10/19 Latest change
Sample size 601-643 572-624 609-689 583-633
Response rate 67.4% 62.8% 69.5% 64.5%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 45% 42% 38% 33+/-4% -5%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 14% 13% 20%[8] 24+/-3% +4%
Net approval rate 32% 30% 18%[8] 9+/-6% -8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 38% 34% 31% 26+/-4% -5%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 20% 20% 22% 24+/-3% +2%
Net approval rate 18% 14% 10% 2+/-6% -7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 42% 40% 33%[8] 31+/-4% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 13% 13% 23%[8] 32+/-4% +8%[8]
Net approval rate 29% 27% 10%[8] -1+/-6% -10%[8]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau 22% 23% 19% 19+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau 14%[8] 13% 17%[8] 22+/-3% +5%[8]
Net approval rate 8%[8] 11% 2%[8] -3+/-5% -5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 38% 32%[8] 30% 25+/-4% -5%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 21% 26% 28% 30+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate 17% 6%[8] 2% -5+/-6% -7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 23% 26% 20%[8] 17+/-3% -4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 18%[8] 19% 21% 25+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate 5%[8] 6% -1% -9+/-5% -8%[8]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law 35% 25%[8] 21% 21+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law 19% 25%[8] 31%[8] 32+/-4%
Net approval rate 16% 0%[8] -10%[8] -11+/-6% -1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang 25% 23% 17%[8] 18+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang 27% 26% 33%[8] 34+/-4% +1%
Net approval rate -2% -2% -16%[8] -16+/-6% +1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip 19% 21% 17% 17+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip 30%[8] 26% 34%[8] 43+/-4% +9%[8]
Net approval rate -11%[8] -5% -17%[8] -26+/-6% -9%[8]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 24% 23% 21% 16+/-3% -5%[8]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 38% 35% 43%[8] 50+/-4% +7%[8]
Net approval rate -14% -11% -22%[8] -34+/-6% -12%[8]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah 21% 18% 15% 14+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah 49%[8] 49% 57%[8] 58+/-4% +1%
Net approval rate -28%[8] -31% -42%[8] -43+/-6% -2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 20% 20% 19% 11+/-3% -8%[8]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 46%[8] 39%[8] 51%[8] 60+/-4% +10%[8]
Net approval rate -26%[8] -19% -32%[8] -50+/-6% -18%[8]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 21%[8] 20% 17% 14+/-3% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 59%[8] 59% 63% 67+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -38%[8] -39% -46% -53+/-6% -7%

[7]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[8]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey conducted before the government officially announced the enactment of anti-mask law by invoking emergency law shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has dropped by 2.6 marks to 22.3, but the change has not gone beyond sampling error. Her approval rate is 15%, disapproval rate 80%, giving a net popularity of negative 65 percentage points, a significant drop of 8 percentage points. All popularity figures have registered record lows since she became CE.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.8 marks, approval rate 18%, disapproval rate 42%, giving a net popularity of negative 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 26.9 marks, approval rate 17%, disapproval rate 59%, thus a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has dropped significantly by 3.0 marks to 14.7, approval rate 7%, disapproval rate 75%, giving a net popularity of negative 69 percentage points, a significant drop of 10 percentage points. Apart from the net popularity of Paul Chan, the support rating and net popularity of all Secretaries of Departments have registered record lows since they took office.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, followed by Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing. Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Security John Lee register negative popularities.

Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 among 13 Directors have gone down and only 1 has gone up. Those of Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Development Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped 18, 12, 10, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Apart from Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, the net approval rates of all other Directors of Bureaux have registered record lows since they took office.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Joshua Law, Nicholas Yang, Matthew Cheung, Patrick Nip and Frank Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of James Lau and Michael Wong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Kevin Yeung, Paul Chan and Lau Kong-wah fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam, Teresa Cheng and John Lee fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9]
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9]
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9]
Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (33%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (31%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (26%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (25%); Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (21%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (18%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (18%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (17%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (16%)
 
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[9]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (19%, 41%); Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (17%, 42%)
 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[9]
Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (60%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (59%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (58%)
“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[9]
CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (80%); SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (75%); Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (67%)

[9]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 2 to 4 September, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 30 September to 3 October, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

3/10/19 The government plans to enact anti-mask law by invoking emergency law.
1/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong, the police shoots a protester with a live bullet in Tsuen Wan.
29/9/19 Anti-totalitarianism rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
28/9/19 The Civil Human Rights Front organizes a rally at Tamar Park to commemorate 5th anniversary of Umbrella Movement.
26/9/19 Carrie Lam attends the first Community Dialogue session.
22/9/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Shatin and multiple districts in Hong Kong.
21/9/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Tuen Mun and Yuen Long.
18/9/19 The Jockey Club cancels night race due to safety concerns.
15/9/19 Protest on Hong Kong Island turns into conflicts between protestors and the police.
14/9/19 Conflicts occur between people with the national flag and those against the extradition bill.
10/9/19 MTR releases screenshots of 8.31 CCTV footage.
8/9/19 Rally in support of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act turns into conflicts between protestors and the police.
7/9/19 Anti-extradition bill protesters call for blocking the airport and nearby roads.
6/9/19 Fitch Ratings downgrades Hong Kong’s credit rating.
4/9/19 Carrie Lam announces the formal withdrawal of the extradition bill.
3/9/19 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office holds a press conference regarding the anti-extradition bill movement.
2/9/19 Secondary and tertiary students boycott class on first day of school.

Data Analysis

Our latest survey conducted before the government officially announces the enactment of anti-mask law by invoking emergency law shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 22.3 marks. Her net popularity is negative 65 percentage points. Both figures have registered record lows since she became CE.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.8 marks and net popularity is negative 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 26.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 42 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 69 percentage points. Apart from the net popularity of Paul Chan, the support rating and net popularity of all Secretaries of Departments have registered record lows since they took office.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, apart from Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, all other 11 Directors have registered negative popularities. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone down and only 1 has gone up. Those of Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Development Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped 18, 12, 10, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Apart from Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, the net approval rates of all other Directors of Bureaux have registered record lows since they took office.

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