HKPORI kickstarts “One Country Two Systems 25-year Mid-term Review” and starts with the latest popularity of officials and its wrap up (2022-06-07)

June 7, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Speakers:
Johnny Lau – Current affairs commentator
Leung Po Lam – President, Hong Kong Social Security Society

Special Announcements

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (PORI) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “PORI” in this release can refer to Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute or its predecessor HKUPOP.

PORI reviews and adjusts its work once every six months. Some changes have already been started after May 4 (i.e., PORI’s 3rd Anniversary), including reducing the frequency of press conferences and developing online civic education. Today, we officially kickstart the “One Country Two Systems 25-year Mid-term Review”. The first phase of the review will take two months, in different forms of releases each week. We will start with the popularity of officials this week, then June Fourth wrap-up, followed by ethnic identity and then handover anniversaries. Details to be announced. Starting from July, we plan to reduce the frequency of our tracking surveys from twice a month to once a month, in order to conserve resources for civic education and mid-term review. Meanwhile, PORI would also like to stress the separation of comments from figures, so that the responsibility of all personal comments arising from our scientific research lies entirely on the commentators concerned, not PORI.

Abstract

PORI successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late May to early June. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 36.0 marks, with 27% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net approval rate is negative 60 percentage points. Both her rating and net approval rate have not changed much from a month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui has left the post and 5 out of the remaining 12 Directors have got positive net approval rates. They are Chris Tang, Wong Kam-sing, Edward Yau, Christopher Hui and Erick Tsang. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of 8 Directors have gone up, 2 have gone down, while 2 remain unchanged. Among them, the net approval rates of Chris Tang and Sophia Chan have increased significantly by 11 and 23 percentage points respectively. Meanwhile, the net approval rate of Erick Tsang has registered a new high since he took office in May 2020 and that of Kevin Yeung has registered a new high since August 2019. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-1.9 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 31/5-5/6/2022
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,000 (including 500 landline and 500 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : TBC
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-1.9 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2021”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2021 Edition)”.
  • This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
  • All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 3-6/1/22 7-10/2/22 7-11/3/22 4-7/4/22 30-4-6/5/22 31/5-5/6/22 Latest change
Sample size 1,021 1,012 1,000 1,014 1,000 1,000
Response rate 52.7% 58.1% 51.5% 49.8% 41.5% TBC
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 33.8 31.9 26.6[3] 33.4[3] 34.7 36.0+/-1.9 +1.4
Vote of confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
19% 18% 12%[3] 13% 14% 17+/-2% +3%
Vote of no confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
67% 70% 78%[3] 78% 78% 77+/-3%
Net approval rate -48% -53% -67%[3] -65% -64% -60+/-5% +3%
  • The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux sorted by net approval rates[4] are summarized below:

Date of survey 6-10/9/21 29/11-3/12/21 7-11/3/22 31/5-5/6/22 Latest change
Sample size 604-631 601-636 575-596 569-599
Response rate 44.2% 44.9% 51.5% TBC
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding and error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang 43% 40% 38% 44+/-4% +6%[5]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang 40% 39% 39% 34+/-4% -5%
Net approval rate 2% 1% -1% 10+/-8% +11%[5]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 33% 27%[5] 28% 29+/-4% +1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 18% 26%[5] 21% 22+/-3% +1%
Net approval rate 14% 1%[5] 7% 7+/-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 33% 27%[5] 25% 30+/-4% +5%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 27% 31% 25%[5] 24+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate 6% -3%[5] <1% 6+/-6% +6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 22% 17%[5] 17% 21+/-3% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 16% 22%[5] 15%[5] 15+/-3%
Net approval rate 7% -5%[5] 2%[5] 5+/-5% +3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 25% 27% 23% 25+/-4% +2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 27% 34%[5] 27%[5] 24+/-4% -3%
Net approval rate -2% -7% -4% 1+/-6% +5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 30% 31% 27% 25+/-4% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 27% 29% 26% 26+/-4%
Net approval rate 3% 2% 1% -1+/-6% -2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 22% 19% 18% 19+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 17% 23%[5] 22% 22+/-3% -1%
Net approval rate 5% -4%[5] -4% -3+/-5% +1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 27% 23% 20% 18+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 20% 23% 24% 25+/-4% +1%
Net approval rate 7% -<1% -5% -8+/-5% -3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 32% 25%[5] 23% 27+/-4% +5%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 24%[7] 37%[5] 38% 35+/-4% -2%
Net approval rate 8% -12%[5] -15% -8+/-7% +7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 29% 22%[5] 22% 22+/-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 23%[7] 31%[5] 32% 32+/-4%
Net approval rate 5%[7] -9%[5] -10% -10+/-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 25% 24% 16%[5] 25+/-4% +9%[5]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 38% 40% 58%[5] 43+/-4% -14%[5]
Net approval rate -13% -16% -42%[5] -19+/-7% +23%[5]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 21% 17%[5] 17% 22+/-3% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 48% 48% 47% 46+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -27% -31% -29% -24+/-7% +5%
  • If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
  • The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 36.0 marks, with 27% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 77%, giving a net popularity of negative 60 percentage points. Both her rating and net approval rate have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui has left the post and 5 out of the remaining 12 Directors have got positive net approval rates, ranked from high to low are Secretary for Security Chris Tang, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang. The 6th to 12th positions who have got negative net approval rates go to Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of 8 Directors have gone up, 2 have gone down, while 2 remain unchanged. Among them, the net approval rates of Chris Tang and Sophia Chan have increased significantly by 11 and 23 percentage points respectively. Meanwhile, the net approval rate of Erick Tsang has registered a new high since he took office in May 2020 and that of Kevin Yeung has registered a new high since August 2019.

According to PORI’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Chris Tang, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Patrick Nip, Sophia Chan, Frank Chan and Kevin Yeung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Erick Tsang, Christopher Hui, Michael Wong and Alfred Sit can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and Directors of Bureaux:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[6]
Nil
 
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[6]
Nil
 
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[6]
Secretary for Security Chris Tang (44%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (30%)

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (29%)

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (27%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (25%)

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (25%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (22%)

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (22%)

 
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[6]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate
Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (25%, 49%)

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (21%, 36%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong (19%, 40%)

Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (18%, 43%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[6]
Nil
 
“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[6]
CE Carrie Lam (77%)
  • If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, PORI started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to PORI a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by PORI. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by PORI.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 11 March, 2022 while this survey was conducted from 31 May to 6 June, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

31/5/22 Carrie Lam says Hong Kong will unlikely relax epidemic control measures in June.
21/5/22 The government announces that eligible people can receive the fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine and the Vaccine Pass coverage will be expanded starting June 13.
18/5/22 The government releases the 2022 Pay Trend Survey Report.
9/5/22 John Lee meets Carrie Lam to discuss transitional arrangements and the preparatory works of re-organising government structure.
3/5/22 Hong Kong further relaxes social distancing measures on May 19.
22/4/22 The government announces the relaxation of some inbound control measures starting May.
14/4/22 The government begins to relax social distancing measures from April 21.
7/4/22 The government announces the amendment of the new round of Employment Support Scheme.
4/4/22 Carrie Lam announces that she will not contest the election for the new-term Chief Executive.
3/4/22 The first batch of the new round of electronic consumption vouchers will be distributed on April 7.
2/4/22 The government announces universal voluntary testing for three days in a row starting from April 8.
31/3/22 The government will start distributing anti-epidemic service bags to all Hong Kong households from April 2.
30/3/22 Carrie Lam concedes anti-pandemic measures contributed to brain drain, but vows to defend Hong Kong’s international status.
23/3/22 Carrie Lam stresses that the compulsory universal testing scheme has not been given up, and will strive for border reopening with mainland China.
21/3/22 The government announces the suspension of the compulsory universal testing scheme.
20/3/22 The government will advance the implementation of stage three Vaccine Pass.
18/3/22 The government announces a new round of Employment Support Scheme.
17/3/22 Carrie Lam says the government will adjust anti-epidemic measures soon.
9/3/22 Carrie Lam announces new measures to fight the epidemic.
7/3/22 The government launches the “Declaration System for individuals tested positive for COVID-19 using Rapid Antigen Test”.

Additional Information

“One Country Two Systems 25-year Mid-term Review”: Popularity of the Last Governor and All Chief Executives

Upcoming Press Releases / Press Conference (Tentative)

  • [Press Release] June 10 (Friday) at 14:30
    Latest Group Gathering Prohibition Index
  • [Press Release] June 14 (Tuesday) at 14:30
    Wrap Up on June Fourth Incident Sentiment
  • [Press Conference] June 17 (Friday) at 14:30
    We Hongkongers: Youth matters survey
    Guest commentator: Benson Wong
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