October 12, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung – Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Albert Lai – Policy Committee Convenor, The Professional Commons
Jacob Yam – Vice Chairman, The Hong Kong Chamber of Education Centres
Edward Tai – Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Detailed Findings
POP releases popularity figures of CE along with five core social indicators
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,010 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early October. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 38.3 marks, with 28% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 35 percentage points. Both have increased significantly compared to half a month ago, registering record highs since early June 2019. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.48, 5.26, 5.12, 4.86 and 4.28 respectively. Compared with a month ago, the “stability” indicator has increased significantly, registering another new high since May 2019. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
Date of survey | : | 4-7/10/2021 |
Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
Sample size[1] | : | 1,010 (including 508 landline and 502 mobile samples) |
Effective response rate | : | 62.9% |
Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% conf. level |
Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
Date of survey | 19-22/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 4-7/10/21[3] | Latest change |
Sample size | 1,000 | 1,002 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,036 | 1,010 | — |
Response rate | 48.5% | 49.4% | 52.9% | 44.2% | 44.1% | 62.9% | — |
Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 34.7 | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 33.9 | 38.3+/-2.1 | +4.4[4] |
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 20% | 20% | 20% | 24%[4] | 20%[4] | 24+/-3% | +5%[4] |
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 68% | 66% | 68% | 65% | 66% | 59+/-3% | -6%[4] |
Net approval rate | -48% | -46% | -48% | -41% | -46% | -35+/-5% | +11%[4] |
[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 6/10/2021 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 30.5 marks, net approval rate at negative 48 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 16-23/9/2021.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 38.3 marks, with 28% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 24%, disapproval rate 59%, giving a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have increased significantly compared to half a month ago, registering record highs since early June 2019.
Core Social Indicators
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
Date of survey | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 4-7/10/21 | Latest change |
Sample size | 602-607 | 595-606 | 635-666 | 593-605 | 602-611 | — |
Response rate | 55.1% | 46.4% | 49.4% | 44.2% | 62.9% | — |
Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
Degree of stability | 4.80[5] | 4.76 | 4.99 | 5.07 | 5.48+/-0.23 | +0.41[5] |
Degree of prosperity | 4.83[5] | 4.94 | 5.52[5] | 5.02[5] | 5.26+/-0.20 | +0.24 |
Degree of freedom | 4.77 | 4.56 | 5.11[5] | 4.95 | 5.12+/-0.26 | +0.17 |
Compliance with the rule of law | 4.39[5] | 4.48 | 5.06[5] | 4.64[5] | 4.86+/-0.25 | +0.22 |
Degree of democracy | 3.82 | 4.04 | 4.02 | 4.28 | 4.28+/-0.26 | — |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.48, 5.26, 5.12, 4.86 and 4.28 respectively. Compared with a month ago, the “stability” indicator has increased significantly, registering another new high since May 2019.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 6 to 10 September, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 7 October, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
7/10/21 | The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”. |
6/10/21 | Carrie Lam delivers the last Policy Address during her term of office. |
1/10/21 | The government holds a flag-raising ceremony and a reception in celebration of the National Day. |
27/9/21 | The government releases the Report on Hong Kong’s Business Environment. |
27/9/21 | Senior police inspector Kary Lam falls into the sea and dies while pursuing smuggling speedboats. |
24/9/21 | China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes the “Fact Sheet: U.S. Interference in Hong Kong Affairs and Support for Anti-China, Destabilizing Forces”. |
20/9/21 | 364 members of the Election Committee are elected. |
20/9/21 | Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers. |
19/9/21 | Election Committee Subsector Elections are held today. |
7/9/21 | The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme. |
6/9/21 | The Central Government releases the development plan of Qianhai. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 38.3 marks, with 28% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 35 percentage points. Both have increased significantly compared to half a month ago, registering record highs since early June 2019.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.48, 5.26, 5.12, 4.86 and 4.28 respectively. Compared with a month ago, the “stability” indicator has increased significantly, registering another new high since May 2019.