The trust and confidence indicators as well as people’s most familiar political figures(2021-09-07)

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Detailed Findings

Sep 07, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was the Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late August. Our survey shows that regarding people’s trust in governments, 34% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 38% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 21% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 16, negative 4 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Taiwan Government has further decreased by 11 percentage points, registering a new low since September 2018. As for the confidence indicators, 60% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 27 percentage points. On the other hand, 46% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 1 and negative 6 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half a year ago. Regarding people’s most familiar political figures, survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Paul Chan, Donald Tsang, Regina Ip, John Lee, Martin Lee, Chris Tang and Starry Lee. Among them, the naming percentages for John Lee and Chris Tang have registered historical highs. Compared to half a year ago, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Teresa Cheng and Matthew Cheung have fallen out of the list as replaced by John Lee and Chris Tang. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam continued to occupy the highest rank on average, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa. These overall rankings remained the same as those registered half a year ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 52.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 20-26/8/2021
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,003 (including 505 landline and 498 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 52.9%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Trust and Confidence Indicators

Recent trust in SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:

Date of survey 19-22/4/21 17-21/5/21 21-25/6/21 19-22/7/21 20-26/8/21 Latest change
Sample size 548 646 583 564 662
Response rate 54.5% 52.5% 49.3% 48.5% 52.9%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Trust in HKSAR Government[3] 32% 31% 34% 38% 34+/-4% -4%
Distrust in HKSAR Government[3] 52% 54% 52% 50% 50+/-4% -1%
Net trust -20% -22% -18% -12% -16+/-7% -4%
Mean value[3] 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6+/-0.1 -0.1

 

Date of survey 15-20/8/19 17-19/2/20 17-20/8/20 24-26/2/21 20-26/8/21 Latest change
Sample size 603-633 575-612 597-644 575-620 666-674
Response rate 68.5% 64.6% 60.9% 57.2% 52.9%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Trust in Beijing Government[3] 23%[4] 20% 28%[4] 41%[4] 38+/-4% -3%
Distrust in Beijing Government[3] 63%[4] 63% 58% 43%[4] 42+/-4% -1%
Net trust -40%[4] -43% -29%[4] -2%[4] -4+/-7% -2%
Mean value[3] 2.2[4] 2.1 2.4[4] 2.9[4] 2.8+/-0.1
Trust in Taiwan Government[3] 25% 38%[4] 35% 30% 21+/-3% -9%[4]
Distrust in Taiwan Government[3] 37% 28%[4] 34%[4] 39% 41+/-4% +2%
Net trust -12% 10%[4] 2% -9%[4] -20+/-6% -11%[4]
Mean value[3] 2.7 3.1[4] 2.9[4] 2.7[4] 2.5+/-0.1 -0.2[4]
Confidence in HK’s future 40% 26%[4] 38%[4] 48%[4] 46+/-4% -2%
No-confidence in HK’s future 52% 70%[4] 57%[4] 46%[4] 48+/-4% +2%
Net confidence -12% -44%[4] -19%[4] 3%[4] -1+/-8% -4%
Confidence in China’s future 42%[4] 39% 43% 62%[4] 60+/-4% -2%
No-confidence in China’s future 50%[4] 52% 48% 28%[4] 33+/-4% +5%
Net confidence -8%[4] -13% -4% 34%[4] 27+/-7% -7%
Confidence in “one country,
two systems”
34%[4] 27%[4] 35%[4] 45%[4] 45+/-4%
No-confidence in “one country,
two systems”
62%[4] 68%[4] 61%[4] 50%[4] 51+/-4% +1%
Net confidence -28%[4] -41%[4] -26%[4] -5%[4] -6+/-8% -2%

[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Regarding people’s trust in governments, 34% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 38% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 21% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 16, negative 4 and negative 20 percentage points, while the mean scores are 2.6, 2.8 and 2.5 respectively, meaning trust in the HKSAR Government and Taiwan Government are between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general whilst trust in the Beijing Central Government is close to “half-half” in general. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Taiwan Government has further decreased by 11 percentage points, registering a new low since September 2018.

As for the confidence indicators, 60% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 27 percentage points. On the other hand, 46% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 1 and negative 6 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half a year ago.

People’s Most Familiar Political Figures

As for people’s most familiar political figures, in the survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 Hong Kong political figures currently alive whom they knew best. Results of the top 20 figures in the latest survey are summarized below[5]:

Date of survey 1-6/8/19 3-6/2/20 3-6/8/2020 24-26/2/21 20-26/8/21
Sample size 560 1,001 647 500 633
Response rate 62.8% 77.6% 64.4% 57.2% 52.9%
Latest findings % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank
Carrie Lam 31% 1 31% 1 61% 1 61% 1 59+/-4% 1
Tung Chee-hwa 27% 2 25% 3 18% 5 17% 5 24+/-3% 2
Leung Chun-ying 25% 3 21% 4 22% 3 23% 3 24+/-3% 3
Paul Chan 8% 19 9% 14 11% 11 32% 2 18+/-3% 4
Donald Tsang 21% 4 27% 2 13% 8 17% 6 18+/-3% 5
Regina Ip 16% 6 14% 5 17% 6 18% 4 17+/-3% 6
John Lee 3% 37 5% 26 6% 21 2% 14+/-3% 7
Martin Lee 15% 8 13% 6 12% 10 14% 9 12+/-3% 8
Chris Tang 3% 39 8% 17 5% 21 11+/-3% 9
Starry Lee 9% 16 9% 13 12% 9 11% 10 10+/-2% 10
Jasper Tsang 12% 12 12% 9 9% 14 8% 15 10+/-2% 11
Teresa Cheng 6% 23 6% 21 11% 12 16% 7 9+/-2% 12
Anson Chan 20% 5 12% 7 9% 15 6% 18 9+/-2% 13
Henry Tang 5% 25 8% 15 5% 31 6% 19 7+/-2% 14
Leung Kwok-hung 8% 17 10% 10 8% 16 8% 14 7+/-2% 15
Matthew Cheung 9% 15 8% 17 23% 2 14% 8 7+/-2% 16
Joshua Wong 7% 21 8% 18 19% 4 10% 11 6+/-2% 17
John Tsang 11% 13 12% 8 5% 29 7% 17 6+/-2% 18
Tam Yiu-chung 2% 1% 10% 13 9% 13 6+/-2% 19
Michael Tien 6% 22 6% 22 4% 37 3% 32 5+/-2% 20

[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered. For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th would be considered not on the list.

Survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Paul Chan, Donald Tsang, Regina Ip, John Lee, Martin Lee, Chris Tang and Starry Lee, followed by Jasper Tsang, Teresa Cheng, Anson Chan, Henry Tang, Leung Kwok-hung, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, John Tsang, Tam Yiu-chung and Michael Tien who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for John Lee and Chris Tang have registered historical highs, whereas the naming percentage for Leung Kwok-hung has registered a new low.

The purpose of the “people’s most familiar political figures” survey is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Teresa Cheng and Matthew Cheung have fallen out of the list as replaced by John Lee and Chris Tang.

It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.

Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

Overall rank 24-27/10/16──24-26/2/21 15-18/5/17──20-26/8/21
Political figures Average rank
for 10 surveys[6]
Political figures Average rank
for 10 surveys
[6]
1 Carrie Lam 1.6 Carrie Lam 1.1
2 Leung Chun-ying 2.7 Leung Chun-ying 2.9
3 Donald Tsang 4.0 Donald Tsang 3.7
4 Tung Chee-hwa 4.6 Tung Chee-hwa 3.8
5 Regina Ip 6.0 Regina Ip 6.1
6 Martin Lee 8.7[7] Martin Lee 8.0
7 Leung Kwok-hung 8.7[7] Leung Kwok-hung 9.9
8 Jasper Tsang 9.8 Jasper Tsang 10.5
9 John Tsang 10.4 Paul Chan 10.8
10 Anson Chan 12.1 Anson Chan 12.0[7]
11 Starry Lee 12.5 John Tsang 12.0[7]
12 Paul Chan 15.4 Starry Lee 12.6
13 Alvin Yeung 18.2 Matthew Cheung 15.5
14 Henry Tang 18.4 Henry Tang 17.9
15 Matthew Cheung 18.9 Joshua Wong 18.2
16 Joshua Wong 21.3 Alvin Yeung 18.7
17 Michael Tien 21.7 Michael Tien 22.0
18 Raymond Wong 22.4 Raymond Wong 25.3
19 Tanya Chan 25.2 Tanya Chan 27.3
20 Rita Fan 26.7[7] Lee Cheuk-yan 27.8
20 James Tien 26.7[7]

[6] For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.

[7] The average ranks for 10 surveys are identical.

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam continued to occupy the highest rank on average, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa. These overall rankings remained the same as those registered half a year ago. Meanwhile, Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang and Paul Chan occupied the 5th to 9th ranks overall, while Anson Chan and John Tsang shared the 10th rank.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 24 to 26 February, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 26 August, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/8/21 The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security.
23/8/21 Officials from the Central Government explain the 14th five-year plan to Hong Kong government officials.
18/8/21 Police arrests four members of the HKU Students’ Union who allegedly advocated terrorism.
15/8/21 Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment.
10/8/21 The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved.
8/8/21 Sarah Lee wins bronze in the women’s cycling sprint in the Olympics, meaning one gold, two silver and three bronze medals for Hong Kong.
6/8/21 The nomination period for the Election Committee Subsector Elections begins.
4/8/21 The government tightens requirements for the Return2hk scheme to prevent spread of the Delta variant from Macau.
2/8/21 The government requires four targeted groups to undergo regular testing at their own expense if they do not get vaccinated.
1/8/21 The government delivers the first batch of electronic consumption vouchers worth $2,000.
31/7/21 The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union.
30/7/21 Tong Ying-kit is jailed for 9 years for inciting secession and terrorism.
16/7/21 Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess.
11/7/21 Hong Kong confirms a case of coronavirus disease, leading to compulsory testing for tens of thousands of airport staff.
8/7/21 Two towers of The Pavilia Farm III will be demolished and rebuilt for failing to meet concrete strength requirement.
6/7/21 Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks.
5/7/21 Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law.
4/7/21 Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online.
3/7/21 The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”.
2/7/21 A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay.
30/6/21 Chinese Communist Party celebrates its 100th anniversary.
25/6/21 John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively.
23/6/21 Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue.
19/6/21 Two Next Digital senior executives are denied bail and remanded in custody.
17/6/21 Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law.
14/6/21 G7 summit ends and issues communique that mentions China multiple times.
12/6/21 Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong.
11/6/21 The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security.
10/6/21 NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”.
4/6/21 Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil.
31/5/21 The government plans to restrict unvaccinated persons from entering various premises.
30/5/21 The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.
28/5/21 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly.
27/5/21 The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system.
25/5/21 The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees.
21/5/21 Some universities and corporations launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.
19/5/21 The government releases data on adverse events after vaccination.
15/5/21 Taiwan confirms 180 local infections with coronavirus disease.
14/5/21 The government freezes Jimmy Lai’s personal assets under the national security law.
11/5/21 The government purchases the broadcasting rights of the Tokyo Olympics for five television stations.
7/5/21 The government announces that vaccinated person can have shorter quarantine period.
30/4/21 The government imposes mandatory testing for all foreign domestic helpers in Hong Kong.
27/4/21 The government relaxes some anti-epidemic measures with “vaccine bubble” as the basis.
23/4/21 Former member of Hong Kong National Front is jailed for 12 years for possessing explosives.
16/4/21 9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly.
15/4/21 The government holds “National Security Education Day”.
13/4/21 The government will make law to ban public call to not vote or cast blank or spoilt votes.
10/4/21 Alibaba is fined RMB 18.2 billion for violating anti-monopoly law.
30/3/21 NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system.
25/3/21 Chinese consumers start a boycott campaign against international brands refusing to use Xinjiang cottons.
24/3/21 The government halts BioNTech vaccination because of packaging defects.
19/3/21 China and US officials meet in Alaska.
17/3/21 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office hold seminars on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system.
15/3/21 The government expands COVID-19 vaccination priority groups’ coverage.
11/3/21 The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system.
5/3/21 The fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress begins, Li Keqiang delivers the government work report.
3/3/21 Expert committee finds no link between Sinovac vaccine and the death of the male aged 63.
2/3/21 A male of age 63 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine.
28/2/21 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that regarding people’s trust in governments, 34% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 38% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 21% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 16, negative 4 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Taiwan Government has further decreased by 11 percentage points, registering a new low since September 2018. As for the confidence indicators, 60% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 27 percentage points. On the other hand, 46% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 1 and negative 6 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half a year ago.

Regarding people’s most familiar political figures, survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Paul Chan, Donald Tsang, Regina Ip, John Lee, Martin Lee, Chris Tang and Starry Lee, followed by Jasper Tsang, Teresa Cheng, Anson Chan, Henry Tang, Leung Kwok-hung, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, John Tsang, Tam Yiu-chung and Michael Tien who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for John Lee and Chris Tang have registered historical highs, whereas the naming percentage for Leung Kwok-hung has registered a new low. Compared to half a year ago, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Teresa Cheng and Matthew Cheung have fallen out of the list as replaced by John Lee and Chris Tang. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam continued to occupy the highest rank on average, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa. These overall rankings remained the same as those registered half a year ago.

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