POP releases popularity of CE and SAR Government, trust and confidence indicators and Public Sentiment Index (2020-02-25)

Feb 25, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Detailed Findings

Press Release on February 25, 2020

POP releases popularity of CE and SAR Government,
trust and confidence indicators and Public Sentiment Index

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. Part of the POP survey on trust and confidence indicators is its last before July 1, 2020, whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,008 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-February. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 18.2 marks. Her net popularity is negative 74 percentage points, registering a significant drop of 6 percentage points compared to two weeks ago. All popularity figures are again at their worst since she became CE. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government also stands at negative 74 percentage points while the net trust value is negative 62 percentage points. Both figures have worsened dramatically compared to last month and are at their worst since records began in 1997 and 1992 respectively. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are negative 64, negative 69 and negative 83 percentage points respectively. People’s net satisfaction with the current economic condition has registered a new record low since 2003, while that of the current livelihood condition has registered an all-time low since records began in 1992. Both figures have worsened dramatically over the month past. Regarding people’s trust in governments, the net trust in the HKSAR Government, the Beijing Central Government and the Taiwan Government are negative 62, negative 43 and positive 10 percentage points respectively. The former two have registered new lows since records began in 1992, while net trust in the Taiwan Government has increased significantly compared to half a year ago and registered new high since 1996. As for the confidence indicators, net confidence in the future of China stands at negative 13 percentage points, registering a new low since records began in 1997. On the other hand, net confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” have both dropped dramatically compared to half a year ago to negative 44 and negative 41 percentage points, registering new lows since records began in 1994 and 1993 respectively. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 38.5, significantly down by 13.4 points from early February, also a new low since records began in 1992. The effective response rate of the survey is 64.6%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 17-19/2/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,008 (including 504 landline and 504 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 64.6%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and SAR Government

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 28/11-3/12/19 13-18/12/19 3-8/1/20 16-21/1/20 3-6/2/20 17-19/2/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,014 1,046 1,011 1,004 1,001 1,008
Response rate 63.2% 61.6% 72.0% 69.7% 77.6% 64.6%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 19.7 19.6 21.5 20.8 20.3 18.2+/-1.8 -2.0
Vote of confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
10% 12% 14% 14% 13% 9+/-2% -4%[4]
Vote of no confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
82% 81% 80% 80% 81% 83+/-2% +2%
Net approval rate -72% -68% -66% -66% -68% -74+/-4% -6%[4]

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 16-19/9/19 17-23/10/19 15-21/11/19 13-18/12/19 16-21/1/20 17-19/2/20 Latest change
Sample size 688 668 591 646 597 620
Response rate 69.5% 63.2% 74.1% 61.6% 69.7% 64.6%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] 12% 10% 11% 14% 15% 9+/-2% -6%[6]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] 76% 79% 77% 76% 75% 83+/-3% +7%[6]
Net satisfaction rate -63% -69% -66% -62% -60% -74+/-5% -14%[6]
Mean value[5] 1.8 1.7[6] 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6+/-0.1 -0.2[6]

[5] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent figures regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 15-20/8/19 17-23/10/19 15-21/11/19 13-18/12/19 16-21/1/20 17-19/2/20 Latest change
Sample size 632 623 607 618 641 616
Response rate 68.5% 63.2% 74.1% 61.6% 69.7% 64.6%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Trust in HKSAR Government[7] 27% 23% 23% 25% 19%[8] 14+/-3% -5%[8]
Distrust in HKSAR Government[7] 64% 68% 64% 63% 69%[8] 76+/-3% +7%[8]
Net trust -37% -44% -41% -39% -50%[8] -62+/-6% -12%[8]
Mean value[7] 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0[8] 1.8+/-0.1 -0.2[8]

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 16-19/9/19 17-23/10/19 15-21/11/19 13-18/12/19 16-21/1/20 17-19/2/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,061 1,038 1,008 1,046 866 1,008
Response rate 69.5% 63.2% 74.1% 61.6% 69.7% 64.6%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[9]
19%[10] 19% 20% 17% 16% 9+/-2% -7%[10]
Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[9]
55% 61%[10] 57%[10] 57% 63%[10] 73+/-3% +10%[10]
Net satisfaction rate -35% -42%[10] -37% -40% -47%[10] -64+/-4% -17%[10]
Mean value[9] 2.4[10] 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2[10] 1.9+/-0.1 -0.3[10]
Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[9]
13% 14% 17% 14% 17% 9+/-2% -7%[10]
Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[9]
70% 71% 69% 68% 68% 79+/-3% +11%[10]
Net satisfaction rate -57% -57% -52% -53% -52% -69+/-4% -18%[10]
Mean value[9] 2.0 2.0 2.1[10] 2.1 2.1 1.8+/-0.1 -0.3[10]
Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[9]
3%[10] 3% 4% 3% 6%[10] 3+/-1% -3%[10]
Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[9]
85% 88% 83%[10] 88%[10] 85% 86+/-2% +1%
Net satisfaction rate -82% -85% -79%[10] -84%[10] -79%[10] -83+/-3% -4%
Mean value[9] 1.4 1.4 1.5[10] 1.4 1.5 1.4+/-0.1

[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 18.2 marks. Her approval rate is 9%, disapproval rate 83%, giving a net popularity of negative 74 percentage points, registering a significant drop of 6 percentage points compared to two weeks ago. All popularity figures are again at their worst since she became CE.

Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 9%, whereas 83% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 74 percentage points. The mean score is 1.6, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 14% of the respondents expressed trust, 76% expressed distrust. The net trust value is negative 62 percentage points. The mean score is 1.8, meaning close to “quite distrust” in general. All of these figures have worsened dramatically compared to last month and are at their worst since records began in 1997 and 1992 respectively.

As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 9%, 9% and 3% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 64, negative 69 and negative 83 percentage points respectively. The mean scores of economic condition and livelihood condition are 1.9 and 1.8 respectively, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general; that of political condition is 1.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. People’s net satisfaction with the current economic condition has registered a new record low since 2003, while that of the current livelihood condition has registered a new low since records began in 1992. People’s feelings toward both of them have worsened dramatically compared to last month.

Trust and Confidence Indicators

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:

Date of survey 17-23/10/19 15-21/11/19 13-18/12/19 16-21/1/20 17-19/2/20 Latest change
Sample size 623 607 618 641 616
Response rate 63.2% 74.1% 61.6% 69.7% 64.6%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
(Repeated listing)    
Trust in HKSAR Government[11] 23% 23% 25% 19%[12] 14+/-3% -5%[12]
Distrust in HKSAR Government[11] 68% 64% 63% 69%[12] 76+/-3% +7%[12]
Net trust -44% -41% -39% -50%[12] -62+/-6% -12%[12]
Mean value[11] 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0[12] 1.8+/-0.1 -0.2[12]
Date of survey 21-25/5/18 3-6/9/18 28/2-5/3/19 15-20/8/19 17-19/2/20 Latest change
Sample size 513-555 515-538 613-674 603-633 575-612
Response rate 55.9% 50.4% 72.2% 68.5% 64.6%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Trust in Beijing Government[11] 34% 40%[12] [13] 33%[12] 23%[12] 20+/-3% -3%
Distrust in Beijing Government[11] 48% 40%[12] 48%[12] 63%[12] 63+/-4%
Net trust -14% 0%[12] -15%[12] -40%[12] -43+/-7% -3%
Mean value[11] 2.7 2.9[12] 2.7[12] 2.2[12] 2.1+/-0.1 -0.1
Trust in Taiwan Government[11] 17% 22% 23% 25% 38+/-4% +13%[12]
Distrust in Taiwan Government[11] 50%[12] 45% 40% 37% 28+/-4% -10%[12]
Net trust -33%[12] -23%[12] [13] -17% -12% 10+/-7% +23%[12]
Mean value[11] 2.4 2.5[12] [13] 2.6 2.7 3.1+/-0.1 +0.4[12]
Confidence in HK’s future 46%[12] 46% 39%[12] 40% 26+/-4% -14%[12]
No-confidence in HK’s future 48%[12] 47% 55%[12] 52% 70+/-4% +18%[12]
Net confidence -2%[12] -1% -16%[12] -12% -44+/-7% -32%[12]
Confidence in China’s future 61%[12] 62% 62% 42%[12] 39+/-4% -3%
No-confidence in China’s future 31%[12] 31% 32% 50%[12] 52+/-4% +2%
Net confidence 30%[12] 30% 30% -8%[12] -13+/-8% -5%
Confidence in “one country,
two systems”
40%[12] 45% 41% 34%[12] 27+/-4% -7%[12]
No-confidence in “one country,
two systems”
54%[12] 49% 55%[12] 62%[12] 68+/-4% +6%[12]
Net confidence -14%[12] -4% -14% -28%[12] -41+/-7% -13%[12]

[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[12] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[13] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.

Regarding people’s trust in governments, 14% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 20% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 38% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 62, negative 43 and positive 10 percentage points, while the mean scores are 1.8, 2.1 and 3.1 respectively, with the former two meaning close to “quite distrust” in general and the latter meaning close to “half-half” in general. Net trust in the HKSAR Government and the Beijing Central Government have registered new lows since records began in 1992, while net trust in the Taiwan Government has increased dramatically compared to half a year ago and registered new high since 1996.

As for the confidence indicators, 39% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at negative 13 percentage points, registering a new low since records began in 1997. On the other hand, 26% and 27% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence dropped dramatically compared to half a year ago to negative 44 and negative 41 percentage points, registering new lows since records began in 1994 and 1993 respectively.

Public Sentiment Index

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.

The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

Latest figure Public Sentiment Index
(PSI): 38.5 (-13.4)
Government Appraisal
(GA): 42.1 (-8.5)
Society Appraisal
(SA): 40.5 (-15.6)

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

Cut-off date 3/12/19 18/12/19 8/1/20 21/1/20 6/2/20 19/2/20 Latest change
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) 54.2 54.3 55.0 52.2 51.9 38.5 -13.4
Government Appraisal (GA) 51.0 52.3 53.5 51.0 50.6 42.1 -8.5
Rating of CE 19.7 19.6 21.5 20.8 20.3 18.2 -2.0
Net approval rate of CE -72% -68% -66% -66% -68% -74% -6%
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG 1.7[14] 1.8 1.8[14] 1.8 1.8[14] 1.6 -0.2
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG 2.2[14] 2.2 2.2[14] 2.0 2.0[14] 1.8 -0.2
Society Appraisal (SA) 59.7[14] 58.6 58.6[14] 56.1 56.1[14] 40.5 -15.6
People’s satisfaction with political condition 1.5[14] 1.4 1.4[14] 1.5 1.5[14] 1.4
Weighting index of political condition 0.32[14] 0.34 0.34[14] 0.34[14] 0.34[14] 0.34[14]
People’s satisfaction with economic condition 2.3[14] 2.4 2.4[14] 2.2 2.2[14] 1.9 -0.3
Weighting index of economic condition 0.34[14] 0.32 0.32[14] 0.32[14] 0.32[14] 0.32[14]
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition 2.1[14] 2.1 2.1[14] 2.1 2.1[14] 1.8 -0.3
Weighting index of livelihood condition 0.35[14] 0.34 0.34[14] 0.34[14] 0.34[14] 0.34[14]

[14] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

Score value Percentile Score value Percentile
140-200 Highest 1% 0-60 Lowest 1%
125 Highest 5% 75 Lowest 5%
120 Highest 10% 80 Lowest 10%
110 Highest 25% 90 Lowest 25%
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below

The latest PSI stands at 38.5, down by 13.4 points from early February. It can be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance plunges by 8.5 points to 42.1, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment also plunges by 15.6 points to 40.5. They can both be considered as among the worst 1%. The PSI, GA and SA have all registered new lows since records began in 1992.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 15 to 20 August, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 19 February, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

19/2/20 The first batch of Hong Kong people on the cruise Diamond Princess return to Hong Kong by a charter flight.
14/2/20 The government announces the setting up of the Anti-epidemic Fund.
13/2/20 Xia Baolong is appointed the Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office.
11/2/20 Residents of Hong Mei House, Cheung Hong Estate in Tsing Yi evacuate due to Wuhan pneumonia cases.
9/2/20 First case of Wuhan pneumonia infection within family is reported in Hong Kong.
7/2/20 The policy of putting people entering Hong Kong from mainland China in a 14-day quarantine takes effect.
6/2/20 People rush to purchase daily necessities.
4/2/20 First death from Wuhan pneumonia is reported in Hong Kong.
3/2/20 The government announces further closure of borders.
2/2/20 Hospital Authority Employees Alliance members will go on strike starting tomorrow.
31/1/20 The government refuses full border closure.
29/1/20 People rush to purchase masks, which are in short supply.
28/1/20 The government announces partial border closure.
27/1/20 The government imposes immigration restrictions on Hubei residents and people who visited Hubei.
23/1/20 A lockdown of Wuhan is announced.
22/1/20 Two “highly suspected” Wuhan pneumonia cases are found in Hong Kong.
19/1/20 Rally at Central turns into a conflict between protestors and the police.
16/1/20 China and the US sign phase one of the trade deal.
14/1/20 The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people.
13/1/20 The government plans to provide over $10 billion to Ocean Park as a subsidy.
11/1/20 Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election.
4/1/20 Luo Huining is appointed the Director of the Liaison Office.
1/1/20 The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally.
28/11/19 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 18.2 marks. Her net popularity is negative 74 percentage points, registering a significant drop of 6 percentage points compared to two weeks ago. All popularity figures are again at their worst since she became CE. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government also stands at negative 74 percentage points while the net trust value is negative 62 percentage points. Both figures have worsened dramatically compared to last month and are at their worst since records began in 1997 and 1992 respectively.

People’s net satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are negative 64, negative 69 and negative 83 percentage points respectively. People’s net satisfaction with the current economic condition has registered a new record low since 2003, while that of the current livelihood condition has registered an all-time low since records began in 1992. Both figures have worsened dramatically over the month past.

Regarding people’s trust in governments, the net trust in the HKSAR Government, the Beijing Central Government and the Taiwan Government are negative 62, negative 43 and positive 10 percentage points respectively. The former two have registered new lows since records began in 1992, while net trust in the Taiwan Government has increased significantly compared to half a year ago and registered new high since 1996.

As for the confidence indicators, net confidence in the future of China stands at negative 13 percentage points, registering a new low since records began in 1997. On the other hand, net confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” have both dropped dramatically compared to half a year ago to negative 44 and negative 41 percentage points, registering new lows since records began in 1994 and 1993 respectively.

As for the PSI, the latest figure is 38.5, significantly down by 13.4 points from early February, also a new low since records began in 1992.

Click to access the login or register cheese
Google Translate »