POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials (2020-05-13)

May 13, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Detailed Findings

Popularity of Chief Executive

Popularity of Directors of Bureaux

Popularity of Secretaries of Departments

 Press Release on May 13, 2020

POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early May. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 56 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.1 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.3 marks and his net popularity is negative 24 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.2 marks and her net popularity is negative 61 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago. As for the 13 Directors of Bureaux, all but Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing register negative net approval rates, including the 5 newly appointed Directors. Compared to one month ago, among 8 Directors who held the same positions, the net approval rates of 3 have gone up, 4 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing and Edward Yau have changed beyond sampling error, up by 16, up by 12 and down by 10 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Edward Yau has registered historical low since he took office. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

[5] The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[6] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates^[8]:

[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.9 marks. Her approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 73%, giving a net popularity of negative 56 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.1 marks. His approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.3 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 49%, thus a net popularity of negative 24 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.2 marks, approval rate 8%, disapproval rate 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 61 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing out of 13 Directors registers a positive net approval rate. The second position goes to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, followed by Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Security John Lee.

Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 3 Directors have gone up, 4 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing and Edward Yau have changed beyond sampling error, up by 16, up by 12 and down by 10 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Edward Yau has registered historical low since he took office.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Patrick Nip, Paul Chan, Edward Yau, Frank Chan, Erick Tsang and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong, Caspar Tsui and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. John Lee and Kevin Yeung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

[11] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 30 March to 2 April, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 6 May, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 56 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.1 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.3 marks and his net popularity is negative 24 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.2 marks and her net popularity is negative 61 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the 13 Directors of Bureaux, all but Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing register negative net approval rates, including the 5 newly appointed Directors. Compared to one month ago, among 8 Directors who held the same positions, the net approval rates of 3 have gone up, 4 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing and Edward Yau have changed beyond sampling error, up by 16, up by 12 and down by 10 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Edward Yau has registered historical low since he took office.