HKPOP releases the first round of LegCo Election Survey results, the latest popularities of CE and SAR Government along with PSI and GGPI(2021-11-23)

Nov 23, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Detailed Findings

 

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-November. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 37.4 marks, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 36 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not registered any significant change compared to half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 30 percentage points, while the net trust value stands at negative 2 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2019. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 23, negative 24 and negative 28 percentage points respectively, of which the net satisfaction rate of political condition has registered a record high since December 2011. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 88.4, up by 2.3 points from early November. The effective response rate of the survey is 53.7% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 15-18/11/2021
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,004 (including 504 landline and 500 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 53.7%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and SAR Government

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 6-10/9/21 16-23/9/21 4-7/10/21[3] 18-22/10/21 29/10-3/11/21 15-18/11/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,000 1,036 1,010 1,000 1,004 1,004
Response rate 44.2% 44.1% 62.9% 52.2% 50.1% 53.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 35.6 33.9 38.3[4] 37.0 35.7 37.4+/-2.2 +1.7
Vote of confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
24%[4] 20%[4] 24%[4] 22% 23% 24+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
65% 66% 59%[4] 64%[4] 66% 60+/-3% -5%[4]
Net approval rate -41% -46% -35%[4] -42% -42% -36+/-5% +6%

[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 6/10/2021 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 30.5 marks, net approval rate at negative 48 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 16-23/9/2021.

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 21-25/6/21 19-22/7/21 20-26/8/21 16-23/9/21 18-22/10/21 15-18/11/21 Latest change
Sample size 544-583 564-624 651-662 666-703 598-622 655-677
Response rate 49.3% 48.5% 52.9% 44.1% 52.2% 53.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] 24%[6] 24% 21% 25% 26% 26+/-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] 60% 58% 59% 54% 55% 56+/-4% +1%
Net satisfaction rate -36%[6] -34% -38% -30% -29% -30+/-7% -1%
Mean value[5] 2.3[6] 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4+/-0.1
Trust in HKSAR Government[5] 34% 38% 34% 35% 38% 42+/-4% +4%
Distrust in HKSAR Government[5] 52% 50% 50% 48% 44% 44+/-4%
Net trust -18% -12% -16% -13% -6% -2+/-7% +4%
Mean value[5] 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8+/-0.1 +0.1

[5] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 21-25/6/21 19-22/7/21 20-26/8/21 16-23/9/21 18-22/10/21 15-18/11/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,014 1,000 1,003 1,036 1,000 1,004
Response rate 49.3% 48.5% 52.9% 44.1% 52.2% 53.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]
20% 26%[8] 24% 28%[8] 25% 29+/-3% +4%
Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]
61% 57%[8] 58% 54% 53% 52+/-3% -1%
Net satisfaction rate -41% -30%[8] -34% -25%[8] -28% -23+/-5% +5%
Mean value[7] 2.1 2.3[8] 2.3 2.4[8] 2.4 2.4+/-0.1
Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]
18% 20% 23% 21% 25%[8] 27+/-3% +2%
Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]
56%[8] 54% 51% 53% 51% 51+/-3%
Net satisfaction rate -38% -33% -28% -32% -26% -24+/-5% +3%
Mean value[7] 2.4[8] 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6+/-0.1
Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[7]
19% 21% 20% 23% 25% 27+/-3% +3%
Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[7]
56%[8] 57% 54% 52% 52% 55+/-3% +3%
Net satisfaction rate -36%[8] -36% -34% -29% -27% -28+/-5%
Mean value[7] 2.4[8] 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5+/-0.1

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 37.4 marks, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 24%, disapproval rate 60%, giving a net popularity of negative 36 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not registered any significant change compared to half a month ago.

Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 26%, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 56%, thus the net satisfaction is negative 30 percentage points. The mean score is 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 42% of the respondents expressed trust, 44% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 2 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2019. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to “half-half” in general. All these figures have not changed much from a month ago.

As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 29%, 27% and 27% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 23, negative 24 and negative 28 percentage points respectively. The mean scores fall within 2.4 and 2.6, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. All three net satisfaction rates have not changed significantly compared to a month ago, but that of political condition has registered a record high since December 2011.

Public Sentiment Index

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.

The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

Latest figure Public Sentiment Index
(PSI): 88.4 (+2.3)
Government Appraisal
(GA): 81.8 (+2.0)
Society Appraisal
(SA): 90.2 (+2.1)

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

Cut-off date 10/9/21 23/9/21 7/10/21 22/10/21 3/11/21 18/11/21 Latest change
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) 81.6 83.5 85.4 86.5 86.1 88.4 +2.3
Government Appraisal (GA) 75.4 76.3 79.6 80.5 79.8 81.8 +2.0
Rating of CE 35.6 33.9 38.3 37.0 35.7 37.4 +1.7
Net approval rate of CE -41% -46% -35% -42% -42% -36% +6%
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG 2.3[9] 2.4 2.4[9] 2.4 2.4[9] 2.4
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG 2.6[9] 2.6 2.6[9] 2.7 2.7[9] 2.8 +0.1
Society Appraisal (SA) 84.5[9] 87.0 87.0[9] 88.1 88.1[9] 90.2 +2.1
People’s satisfaction with political condition 2.3[9] 2.4 2.4[9] 2.4 2.4[9] 2.4
Weighting index of political condition 0.31[9] 0.31[9] 0.31[9] 0.31[9] 0.31[9] 0.31[9]
People’s satisfaction with economic condition 2.5[9] 2.4 2.4[9] 2.5 2.5[9] 2.6
Weighting index of economic condition 0.34[9] 0.34[9] 0.34[9] 0.34[9] 0.34[9] 0.34[9]
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition 2.4[9] 2.5 2.5[9] 2.4 2.4[9] 2.5
Weighting index of livelihood condition 0.35[9] 0.35[9] 0.35[9] 0.35[9] 0.35[9] 0.35[9]

[9] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

Score value Percentile Score value Percentile
140-200 Highest 1% 0-60 Lowest 1%
125 Highest 5% 75 Lowest 5%
120 Highest 10% 80 Lowest 10%
110 Highest 25% 90 Lowest 25%
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below

The latest PSI stands at 88.4, up by 2.3 points from early November. It can be considered as among the worst 22% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 2.0 points to 81.8, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 2.1 points to 90.2. They can be considered as among the worst 11% and 26% across the past 20 years or so respectively. PSI and GA have again registered their record highs since early June 2019, while SA has registered a record high since April 2019.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 18 to 22 October, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 15 to 18 November, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/11/21 Experts recommend the government to lower the age requirement for taking the Sinovac vaccine to 3 years old.
13/11/21 Experts recommend the government to introduce “vaccine passport”.
12/11/21 Nomination period for Legislative Council election ends with 154 candidates competing for 90 seats.
11/11/21 The sixth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the third historical resolution in party history.
10/11/21 Two pilots exempted from quarantine test positive.
9/11/21 CLP Power and Hongkong Electric will increase their tariffs by 5.8% and 7% respectively.
5/11/21 Carrie Lam hopes that border between mainland China and Hong Kong can be largely reopened in February next year.
3/11/21 The government announces the arrangements for the third dose of COVID-19 vaccination.
1/11/21 Five people are arrested for using fake “LeaveHomeSafe” apps.
31/10/21 Starting from tomorrow, it is mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises.
27/10/21 Experts recommends certain groups of people to take the third dose of COVID-19 vaccine.
26/10/21 The government will axe most quarantine exemptions to facilitate border reopening with mainland China.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 37.4 marks, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 36 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not registered any significant change compared to half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 30 percentage points, while the net trust value stands at negative 2 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2019. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 23, negative 24 and negative 28 percentage points respectively, of which the net satisfaction rate of political condition has registered a record high since December 2011.

As for the PSI, the latest figure is 88.4, up by 2.3 points from early November.

Click to access the login or register cheese