HKPOP release the latest popularities of CE and principal officials(2021-09-14)

Press Conference Live

Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung – Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Owan Li – Former Yau Tsim Mong District Councillor
Edward Tai – Manager (Data Science), HKPOR

Detailed Findings

 

Sep 14, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early September. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.6 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has registered a record high since early June 2019, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 41 percentage points, which has increased by 7 percentage points compared to half a month ago, but the change has not gone beyond sampling error. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 37.5 marks. His net popularity is negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.9 marks. His net popularity is negative 5 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 28.3 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity is negative 35 percentage points, also registered a record high since April 2019. As for the Directors of Bureaux, 10 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 9 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only that of Frank Chan has changed beyond sampling error, also registering a record high since May 2018. Meanwhile, those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Caspar Tsui have registered record highs since they took office in May 2020. The effective response rate of the survey is 44.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 6-10/9/2021
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,000 (including 500 landline and 500 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 44.2%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.9 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 21-25/6/21 30/6-8/7/21 19-22/7/21 9-12/8/21 20-26/8/21 6-10/9/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,014 1,003 1,000 1,002 1,003 1,000
Response rate 49.3% 46.4% 48.5% 49.4% 52.9% 44.2%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 29.8 34.0[3] 34.7 35.1 33.8 35.6+/-2.0 +1.8
Vote of confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
17% 20% 20% 20% 20% 24+/-3% +4%[3]
Vote of no confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
70% 67% 68% 66% 68% 65+/-3% -3%
Net approval rate -53% -47% -48% -46% -48% -41+/-5% +7%

[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 7-9/4/21 3-7/5/21 7-10/6/21 30/6-8/7/21 9-12/8/21 6-10/9/21 Latest change
Sample size 556-639 636-700 570-692 590-647 574-600 589-668
Response rate 50.1% 55.5% 55.1% 46.4% 49.4% 44.2%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS John Lee 38.0 35.3 37.5+/-2.9 +2.2
Vote of confidence in CS John Lee 32% 29% 28+/-4% -1%
Vote of no confidence in CS John Lee 37% 40% 38+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -5% -11% -11+/-7%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 35.8 35.1 35.4 43.5[4] 41.3 41.9+/-2.5 +0.6
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 29% 24% 25% 32%[4] 33% 31+/-4% -2%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 39%[4] 42% 43% 32%[4] 29% 35+/-4% +6%[4]
Net approval rate -10%[4] -18% -18% 1%[4] 4% -5+/-7% -8%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 22.7 25.0 24.2 28.1[4] 27.7 28.3+/-2.4 +0.6
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 14% 14% 14% 16% 14% 15+/-3% +2%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 61% 57% 61% 53%[4] 53% 50+/-4% -3%
Net approval rate -47% -44% -47% -37%[4] -39% -35+/-6% +4%

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system sorted by net approval rates[5] are summarized below:

Date of survey 8-12/3/21 3-7/5/21 30/6-8/7/21 6-10/9/21 Latest change
Sample size 533-710 614-647 606-626 604-631
Response rate 47.6% 55.5% 46.4% 44.2%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 24% 29%[6] 29% 33+/-4% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 28% 27% 22%[6] 18+/-3% -4%
Net approval rate -4% 2% 7% 14+/-6% +7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 25%[6] 26% 32%[6] 32+/-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 36% 37% 30%[6] 24+/-4% -6%[6]
Net approval rate -11% -12% 3%[6] 8+/-6% +5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 24% 21% 26%[6] 27+/-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 28% 25% 20%[6] 20+/-3% -1%
Net approval rate -4% -5% 6%[6] 7+/-5% +1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 19% 18% 22%[6] 22+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 19%[6] 24%[6] 18%[6] 16+/-3% -2%
Net approval rate 1% -6% 5%[6] 7+/-5% +2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 25% 26% 33%[6] 33+/-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 35% 35% 30% 27+/-4% -4%
Net approval rate -10% -9% 3%[6] 6+/-6% +3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 16%[6] 24%[6] 26% 29+/-4% +3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 40% 35% 29%[6] 23+/-3% -6%[6]
Net approval rate -24%[6] -11%[6] -4% 5+/-6% +9%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 21% 18% 24%[6] 22+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 23% 25% 16%[6] 17+/-3% +1%
Net approval rate -2% -7% 8%[6] 5+/-5% -3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 25% 24% 32%[6] 30+/-4% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 42% 39% 32%[6] 27+/-4% -5%
Net approval rate -17% -15% 1%[6] 3+/-6% +2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang 43% 43+/-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang 41% 40+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate 2% 2+/-7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 21% 21% 22% 26+/-4% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 29% 30% 26% 26+/-4%
Net approval rate -8% -9% -4% <1+/-6% +5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 22% 19% 28%[6] 25+/-4% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 37% 41% 30%[6] 27+/-4% -3%
Net approval rate -15% -22% -2%[6] -2+/-6% -1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 23% 24% 28% 25+/-4% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 49% 45% 36%[6] 38+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -26% -21% -8%[6] -13+/-6% -5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 15% 14% 22%[6] 21+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 58% 58% 51%[6] 48+/-4% -3%
Net approval rate -43% -44% -29%[6] -27+/-6% +2%

[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.6 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has registered a record high since early June 2019, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her latest approval rate is 24%, disapproval rate 65%, giving a net popularity of negative 41 percentage points, which has increased by 7 percentage points compared to half a month ago, but the change has not gone beyond sampling error.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 37.5 marks. His approval rate is 28%, disapproval rate 38%, giving a net popularity of negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.9 marks. His approval rate is 31%, disapproval rate 35%, giving a net popularity of negative 5 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 28.3 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her approval rate is 15%, disapproval rate 50%, thus a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points, also registered a record high since April 2019.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 10 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates, ranked from high to low are Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Security Chris Tang and Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui. The 11th to 13th positions who have got negative net approval rates go to Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 9 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only that of Frank Chan has changed beyond sampling error, also registering a record high since May 2018. Meanwhile, those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Caspar Tsui have registered record highs since they took office in May 2020.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Chris Tang, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Paul Chan, Patrick Nip, Frank Chan, John Lee, Caspar Tsui, Erick Tsang, Sophia Chan and Kevin Yeung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Nil
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Nil
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Secretary for Security Chris Tang (43%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (33%)

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (33%)

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (32%)

FS Paul Chan (31%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (30%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (29%)

CS John Lee (28%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui (26%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (25%)

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (25%)

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (21%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[7]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate
Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (27%, 46%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong (22%, 40%)

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (22%, 38%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7]
CE Carrie Lam (65%)

SJ Teresa Cheng (50%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Nil

[7] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 30 June to 8 July, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 10 September, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

7/9/21 The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme.
6/9/21 The Central Government releases the development plan of Qianhai.
31/8/21 The government proposes amendments to relax requirements for non-locally trained doctors to practise in Hong Kong.
29/8/21 The government may launch a universal COVID-19 vaccination programme for all residents.
26/8/21 The Legislative Council passes waste-charging bill.
24/8/21 The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security.
23/8/21 Officials from the Central Government explain the 14th five-year plan to Hong Kong government officials.
18/8/21 Police arrests four members of the HKU Students’ Union who allegedly advocated terrorism.
17/8/21 A worker at airport lounge tests positive, prompting the government to tighten anti-epidemic measures.
15/8/21 Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment.
14/8/21 A foreign domestic helper tests positive after finishing 7-day quarantine.
10/8/21 The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved.
6/8/21 The nomination period for the Election Committee Subsector Elections begins.
4/8/21 The government tightens requirements for the Return2hk scheme to prevent spread of the Delta variant from Macau.
2/8/21 The government requires four targeted groups to undergo regular testing at their own expense if they do not get vaccinated.
1/8/21 The government delivers the first batch of electronic consumption vouchers worth $2,000.
31/7/21 The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union.
30/7/21 Tong Ying-kit is jailed for 9 years for inciting secession and terrorism.
16/7/21 Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess.
11/7/21 Hong Kong confirms a case of coronavirus disease, leading to compulsory testing for tens of thousands of airport staff.
8/7/21 Two towers of The Pavilia Farm III will be demolished and rebuilt for failing to meet concrete strength requirement.
6/7/21 Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks.
5/7/21 Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law.
4/7/21 Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online.
3/7/21 The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”.
2/7/21 A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.6 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has registered a record high since early June 2019, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 41 percentage points, which has increased by 7 percentage points compared to half a month ago, but the change has not gone beyond sampling error.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 37.5 marks. His net popularity is negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.9 marks. His net popularity is negative 5 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 28.3 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity is negative 35 percentage points, also registered a record high since April 2019.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 10 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 9 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only that of Frank Chan has changed beyond sampling error, also registering a record high since May 2018. Meanwhile, those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Caspar Tsui have registered record highs since they took office in May 2020.

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