POP releases rankings of people’s most familiar political figures (2020-02-18)

Feb 18, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

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Detailed Findings

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. The POP survey on rankings of people’s most familiar political figures is the last survey before July 1, 2020, whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early February. Latest results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung, followed by Roy Kwong, Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Paul Chan, Henry Tang, Tanya Chan, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan and Ann Chiang as rank eleventh to twentieth respectively. Among them, the percentage of respondents that mentioned Sophia Chan has registered new record high. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 7 political figures remain in the top 10. Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam, Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. The effective response rate of the survey is 77.6%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3% at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 3-6/2/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,001 (including 500 landline and 501 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 77.6%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

In the survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 Hong Kong political figures currently alive whom they knew best. Results of the top 20 figures in the latest survey are summarized below[4]:

Date of survey 16-19/4/18 18-20/9/18 29/1-8/2/19 1-6/8/19 3-6/2/20
Sample size 615 552 537 560 1,001
Response rate 56.4% 55.6% 63.0% 62.8% 77.6%
Latest findings % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank
Carrie Lam 46% 1 38% 1 35% 1 31% 1 31+/-3% 1
Donald Tsang 27% 2 28% 2 33% 2 21% 4 27+/-3% 2
Tung Chee-hwa 25% 4 23% 4 29% 3 27% 2 25+/-3% 3
Leung Chun-ying 26% 3 26% 3 26% 4 25% 3 21+/-3% 4
Regina Ip 21% 6 15% 8 13% 7 16% 6 14+/-2% 5
Martin Lee 14% 10 18% 6 14% 5 15% 8 13+/-2% 6
Anson Chan 9% 14 8% 14 11% 9 20% 5 12+/-2% 7
John Tsang 18% 8 13% 9 14% 6 11% 13 12+/-2% 8
Jasper Tsang 16% 9 16% 7 8% 12 12% 12 12+/-2% 9
Leung Kwok-hung 23% 5 19% 5 12% 8 8% 17 10+/-2% 10
Roy Kwong 1% 1% 2% 46 15% 7 10+/-2% 11
Alvin Yeung 5% 26 4% 27 5% 18 12% 10 10+/-2% 12
Starry Lee 12% 11 6% 22 6% 14 9% 16 9+/-2% 13
Paul Chan 20% 7 9% 12 11% 10 8% 19 9+/-2% 14
Henry Tang 9% 15 7% 17 9% 11 5% 25 8+/-2% 15
Tanya Chan 6% 19 8% 13 5% 19 4% 32 8+/-2% 16
Matthew Cheung 9% 16 7% 15 6% 15 9% 15 8+/-2% 17
Joshua Wong 6% 21 4% 31 4% 21 7% 21 8+/-2% 18
Sophia Chan 1% 2% 45 1% 7+/-2% 19
Ann Chiang 3% 34 3% 34 2% 37 5% 26 7+/-2% 20

[4]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered. For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th would be considered not on the list.

Survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung, followed by Roy Kwong, Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Paul Chan, Henry Tang, Tanya Chan, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan and Ann Chiang as rank eleventh to twentieth respectively. Among them, the percentage of respondents that mentioned Sophia Chan has registered new record high.

The purpose of the “people’s most familiar political figures” survey is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 7 political figures remain in the top 10. Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung.

It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.

Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

Overall rank 8-14/5/15──1-6/8/19 2-5/11/15──3-6/2/20
Political figures Average rank
for 10 surveys[5]
Political figures Average rank
for 10 surveys
[5]
1 Carrie Lam 1.9 Carrie Lam 1.8
2 Leung Chun-ying 2.0 Leung Chun-ying 2.3
3 Donald Tsang 4.1 Donald Tsang 3.8
4 Tung Chee-hwa 5.4 Tung Chee-hwa 5.3
5 Leung Kwok-hung 5.7 Regina Ip 6.4[6]
6 Regina Ip 6.5 Leung Kwok-hung 6.4[6]
7 Jasper Tsang 7.4 John Tsang 7.1
8 John Tsang 7.5 Jasper Tsang 7.6
9 Martin Lee 10.5 Martin Lee 9.8
10 Anson Chan 11.2 Anson Chan 11.1
11 Wong Yuk-man 14.1 Wong Yuk-man 15.7
12 Henry Tang 17.2 Starry Lee 16.4
13 Starry Lee 17.5 Henry Tang 16.7
14 Michael Tien 18.9 Paul Chan 17.7
15 Paul Chan 19.0 Michael Tien 18.9
16 Rita Fan 19.3 James Tien 21.1
17 Emily Lau 20.1 Emily Lau 22.4
18 James Tien 20.9 Alvin Yeung 22.6
19 Alan Leong 23.7 Rita Fan 22.7
20 Lee Cheuk-yan 24.0 Matthew Cheung 24.5

[5]     For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.

[6]     The average ranks for 10 surveys are identical.

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam has the highest overall rank, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa. Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung share the 5th overall rank, followed by John Tsang, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee and Anson Chan, who rank 7th to 10th.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 1 to 6 August, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 February, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/2/20 People rush to purchase daily necessities.
5/2/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from mainland China will be placed on a 14-day quarantine.
4/2/20 First death from Wuhan pneumonia is reported in Hong Kong.
3/2/20 The government announces further closure of borders.
1/2/20 Hospital Authority Employees Alliance members vote to go on strike.
31/1/20 The government refuses full border closure.
29/1/20 People rush to purchase masks, which are in short supply.
28/1/20 The government announces partial border closure.
27/1/20 The government imposes immigration restrictions on Hubei residents and people who visited Hubei.
22/1/20 Two “highly suspected” Wuhan pneumonia cases are found in Hong Kong.
19/1/20 Rally at Central turns into a conflict between protestors and the police.
14/1/20 The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people.
13/1/20 The government plans to provide over $10 billion to Ocean Park as a subsidy.
7/1/20 The government adds Wuhan pneumonia to the list of notifiable diseases.
2/1/20 A woman back from Wuhan has symptoms of pneumonia.
1/1/20 The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally.
8/12/19 The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest.
2/12/19 Financial Secretary Paul Chan forecasts a budget deficit in this fiscal year.
28/11/19 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
25/11/19 The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung, followed by Roy Kwong, Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Paul Chan, Henry Tang, Tanya Chan, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan and Ann Chiang as rank eleventh to twentieth respectively. Among them, the percentage of respondents that mentioned Sophia Chan has registered new record high. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 7 political figures remain in the top 10. Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam, Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip and Leung Kwok-hung are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run.

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