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民研計劃發放香港紀律部隊及駐港解放軍民望數字 (2021-06-08)

POP releases popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison (2021-06-08)

2021年6月8日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料

發佈會回顧

民研計劃發放香港紀律部隊及駐港解放軍民望數字

特別宣佈

香港民意研究計劃(香港民研)前身為香港大學民意研究計劃(港大民研)。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。

公報簡要

民研計劃於五月下旬由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,004名香港居民。調查顯示,消防處以79.5分再次成為市民最滿意的紀律部隊,第二和第三位是醫療輔助隊和政府飛行服務隊,評分分別為74.2及67.2分。位列第四至八位的是民眾安全服務隊、海關、入境事務處、廉政公署和懲教署。最後,警務處的最新評分為44.2分,繼續是九個紀律部隊當中最低,當中有29%市民給予0分,而市民對警務處的最新滿意淨值為負9個百分點。紀律部隊之間的相對排名在過去六個月沒有太大變化。另外,市民對駐港解放軍的最新滿意度評分為51.4分,滿意淨值為正12個百分點。與半年前比較,民眾安全服務隊的評分錄得顯著上升,醫療輔助隊、海關和入境事務處的評分則錄得顯著下跌,後兩者創相關題目於2012年開展以來新低,而醫療輔助隊和廉政公署則創2013年開展以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為52.5%。在95%置信水平下,調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%,淨值誤差不超過+/-7%,評分誤差不超過+/-3.5。

樣本資料

調查日期 17-21/5/2021
調查方法 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問
訪問對象 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民
成功樣本數目[1] 1,004 (包括494個固網及510個手機樣本)
實效回應比率 52.5%
抽樣誤差[2] 在95%置信水平下,百分比誤差不超過+/-4%,淨值誤差不超過+/-7%,評分誤差不超過+/-3.5
加權方法 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》,而教育程度(最高就讀程度)及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》(2020年版)。

[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目,個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。

[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平,是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次,則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差,傳媒引用百分比數字時,應避免使用小數點,在引用評分數字時,則可以使用一個小數點。

最新數據

以下是巿民對紀律部隊及駐港解放軍的最新滿意度評分:

調查日期 1-6/8/19 21-26/11/19 4-6/5/20 23-26/11/20 17-21/5/21 最新變化
樣本數目[3] 1,015 584-650 536-672 506-535 570-632 --
回應比率 62.8% 67.7% 62.5% 74.6% 52.5% --
最新結果[4] 結果 結果 結果 結果 結果及誤差 認知率 --
消防處 -- 80.5{1}[5] 76.6{2}[5] 81.0{1}[5] 79.5+/-1.4{1} 98.8% -1.5
醫療輔助隊 -- 80.2{2}[5] 77.4{1}[5] 78.2{2} 74.2+/-1.6{2} 90.2% -4.0[5]
政府飛行服務隊 -- 69.4{3}[5] 71.7{3} 65.7{3}[5] 67.2+/-2.3{3} 84.3% +1.5
民眾安全服務隊 -- 63.9{6}[5] 62.9{5} 62.9{6} 66.3+/-2.2{4} 79.1% +3.4[5]
海關 -- 68.7{4}[5] 64.4{4}[5] 64.5{4} 59.7+/-2.2{5} 92.6% -4.9[5]
入境事務處 -- 66.2{5}[5] 60.8{6}[5] 63.6{5} 58.3+/-2.2{6} 92.5% -5.3[5]
廉政公署 -- 57.9{8}[5] 54.8{7} 56.1{7} 54.5+/-2.4{7} 91.3% -1.5
懲教署 -- 58.3{7}[5] 51.6{8}[5] 52.1{8} 52.0+/-2.6{8} 82.5% -0.1
警務處 39.4[5] 35.3{9}[5] 36.8{9} 40.3{9} 44.2+/-3.2{9} 96.1% +3.8
駐港解放軍 -- 44.2[5] 44.2 49.1 51.4+/-3.5 75.0% +2.3

[3] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字,2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。

[4] 括弧{ }內數字為紀律部隊的排名。

[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。

以下則是巿民使用五等量尺表達對香港警務處及駐港解放軍的滿意程度:

調查日期 3-6/6/19 21-26/11/19 4-6/5/20 23-26/11/20 17-21/5/21 最新變化
樣本數目[6] 594-638 598-602 607-626 518-524 604-609 --
回應比率 60.4% 67.7% 62.5% 74.6% 52.5% --
最新結果 結果 結果 結果 結果 結果及誤差 --
對警務處的滿意率[7] 50% 27%[8] 34%[8] 33% 37+/-4% +4%
對警務處的不滿率[7] 28% 65%[8] 59%[8] 52%[8] 47+/-4% -6%
滿意率淨值 22% -38%[8] -25%[8] -19% -9+/-7% +10%
平均量值[7] 3.2 2.2[8] 2.4[8] 2.5 2.7+/-0.1 +0.2[8]
對駐港解放軍的滿意率[7] 49% 37%[8] 39% 36% 37+/-4% --
對駐港解放軍的不滿率[7] 14% 33%[8] 36% 26%[8] 24+/-4% -2%
滿意率淨值 35% 3%[8] 2% 10% 12+/-6% +2%
平均量值[7] 3.6 3.0[8] 3.0 3.1 3.2+/-0.1 +0.1

[6] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字,2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。

[7] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度,以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分,再求取樣本平均數值。

[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。

調查顯示,市民對紀律部隊的滿意度排名第一至三位是消防處、醫療輔助隊和政府飛行服務隊,評分分別為79.5、74.2及67.2分。位列第四至八位的是民眾安全服務隊、海關、入境事務處、廉政公署和懲教署,分別得66.3、59.7、58.3、54.5及52.0分。最後,警務處的評分為44.2分,繼續是九個紀律部隊當中最低,當中有29%市民給予0分。市民對警務處的最新滿意率為37%,不滿率為47%,滿意淨值為負9個百分點,比半年前上升10個百分點,但變化仍未超過抽樣誤差。其平均量值為2.7分,即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。紀律部隊之間的相對排名沒有太大變化,只有民眾安全服務隊的評分越過海關和入境事務處,晉身第四位。另外,市民對駐港解放軍的最新滿意度評分為51.4分,其滿意率為37%,不滿率為24%,滿意淨值為正12個百分點,平均量值為3.2分,即整體上接近「一半半」。

與半年前比較,民眾安全服務隊的評分錄得顯著上升,醫療輔助隊、海關和入境事務處的評分則錄得顯著下跌,後兩者創相關題目於2012年開展以來新低,而醫療輔助隊和廉政公署則創2013年開展以來新低。

民意日誌

民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作,由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法,將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃,經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。

由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目,上次調查日期為23-26/11/2020,而今次調查日期則為17-21/5/2021,因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸,讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計,在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件,讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字:

14/5/21 政府引用國安法凍結黎智英私人財產
8/5/21 衞生署控告兩名變種病毒確診者隱瞞行蹤
23/4/21 香港民族陣綫前成員管有炸藥罪成,判囚12年
16/4/21 九位知名民主派人士就8月18日集會案被判罪成入獄
15/4/21 政府舉辦「全民國家安全教育日」
13/4/21 政府將立法禁止公開呼籲不投票或投白票廢票
1/3/21 法庭通宵審議47名民主派人士保釋申請
28/2/21 47名民主派人士被控「串謀顛覆國家政權罪」
23/2/21 政府提出修例規管公職人員宣誓,列出負面行為清單,違者將取消資格
9/2/21 終審法院撤銷高等法院批准黎智英保釋的決定
2/2/21 政府繼續封鎖多區進行強制檢測,並指或破門而入
1/2/21 政府封鎖多區進行強制檢測,並降低封區門檻
6/1/21 警方以涉嫌違反國安法拘捕53名民主派初選相關人士
31/12/20 終審法院受理律政司上訴,黎智英還押候訊
30/12/20 12港人案中十人被判囚七個月至三年,兩名未成年者移交香港
25/12/20 黎智英獲准保釋,禁離家受訪發文
12/12/20 黎智英被加控「勾結外國或境外勢力危害國家安全」罪
8/12/20 政府再收緊防疫措施,新增禁足及強制檢測權力
5/12/20 國安法指定法官蘇惠德收到死亡恐嚇
3/12/20 黎智英被拒保釋,須還押候訊
2/12/20 前香港眾志成員黃之鋒、林朗彥及周庭被判囚7至13.5個月
30/11/20 政府宣布收緊防疫措施,設立熱線舉報違規行為

數據分析

最新調查顯示,消防處以79.5分再次成為市民最滿意的紀律部隊,第二和第三位是醫療輔助隊和政府飛行服務隊,評分分別為74.2及67.2分。位列第四至八位的是民眾安全服務隊、海關、入境事務處、廉政公署和懲教署。最後,警務處的最新評分為44.2分,繼續是九個紀律部隊當中最低,當中有29%市民給予0分,而市民對警務處的最新滿意淨值為負9個百分點。紀律部隊之間的相對排名在過去六個月沒有太大變化。另外,市民對駐港解放軍的最新滿意度評分為51.4分,滿意淨值為正12個百分點。

與半年前比較,民眾安全服務隊的評分錄得顯著上升,醫療輔助隊、海關和入境事務處的評分則錄得顯著下跌,後兩者創相關題目於2012年開展以來新低,而醫療輔助隊和廉政公署則創2013年開展以來新低。

Jun 08, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

POP releases popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces
and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of May. Latest survey shows that the Fire Services Department continues to be people’s most satisfied disciplinary force, with a rating of 79.5 marks. The 2nd and 3rd places go to the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Government Flying Service, with 74.2 and 67.2 marks respectively. The 4th to 8th ranks go to the Civil Aid Service, the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 44.2 marks, with 29% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate stands at negative 9 percentage points. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much over the past six months. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 51.4 marks. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 12 percentage points. Compared with half a year ago, the rating of the Civil Aid Service has increased significantly, whereas those of the Auxiliary Medical Service, the Customs and Excise Department and the Immigration Department have dropped significantly. The latter two have registered record lows since the relevant questions first started in 2012, while those of the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Independent Commission Against Corruption have registered record lows since they were first started in 2013. The effective response rate of the survey is 52.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.5 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 17-21/5/2021
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,004 (including 494 landline and 510 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 52.5%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.5 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

Latest Figures

Latest satisfaction ratings of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 1-6/8/19 21-26/11/19 4-6/5/20 23-26/11/20 17-21/5/21 Latest change
Sample size[3] 1,015 584-650 536-672 506-535 570-632 --
Response rate 62.8% 67.7% 62.5% 74.6% 52.5% --
Latest findings[4] Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recog % --
Fire Services Department -- 80.5{1}[5] 76.6{2}[5] 81.0{1}[5] 79.5+/-1.4{1} 98.8% -1.5
Auxiliary Medical Service -- 80.2{2}[5] 77.4{1}[5] 78.2{2} 74.2+/-1.6{2} 90.2% -4.0[5]
Government Flying Service -- 69.4{3}[5] 71.7{3} 65.7{3}[5] 67.2+/-2.3{3} 84.3% +1.5
Civil Aid Service -- 63.9{6}[5] 62.9{5} 62.9{6} 66.3+/-2.2{4} 79.1% +3.4[5]
Customs and Excise Department -- 68.7{4}[5] 64.4{4}[5] 64.5{4} 59.7+/-2.2{5} 92.6% -4.9[5]
Immigration Department -- 66.2{5}[5] 60.8{6}[5] 63.6{5} 58.3+/-2.2{6} 92.5% -5.3[5]
Independent Commission Against Corruption -- 57.9{8}[5] 54.8{7} 56.1{7} 54.5+/-2.4{7} 91.3% -1.5
Correctional Services Department -- 58.3{7}[5] 51.6{8}[5] 52.1{8} 52.0+/-2.6{8} 82.5% -0.1
Police Force 39.4[5] 35.3{9}[5] 36.8{9} 40.3{9} 44.2+/-3.2{9} 96.1% +3.8
PLA Hong Kong Garrison -- 44.2[5] 44.2 49.1 51.4+/-3.5 75.0% +2.3

[3] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[4] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest satisfaction rates of the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison using the 5-point scale are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 3-6/6/19 21-26/11/19 4-6/5/20 23-26/11/20 17-21/5/21 Latest change
Sample size[6] 594-638 598-602 607-626 518-524 604-609 --
Response rate 60.4% 67.7% 62.5% 74.6% 52.5% --
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error --
Satisfaction rate of the
Police Force[7]
50% 27%[8] 34%[8] 33% 37+/-4% +4%
Dissatisfaction rate of the
Police Force[7]
28% 65%[8] 59%[8] 52%[8] 47+/-4% -6%
Net satisfaction rate 22% -38%[8] -25%[8] -19% -9+/-7% +10%
Mean value[7] 3.2 2.2[8] 2.4[8] 2.5 2.7+/-0.1 +0.2[8]
Satisfaction rate of the
PLA Hong Kong Garrison[7]
49% 37%[8] 39% 36% 37+/-4% --
Dissatisfaction rate of the
PLA Hong Kong Garrison[7]
14% 33%[8] 36% 26%[8] 24+/-4% -2%
Net satisfaction rate 35% 3%[8] 2% 10% 12+/-6% +2%
Mean value[7] 3.6 3.0[8] 3.0 3.1 3.2+/-0.1 +0.1

[6] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.

[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Survey shows that regarding people’s satisfaction with disciplinary forces, the 1st to 3rd places go to the Fire Services Department, the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Government Flying Service, with rating of 79.5, 74.2 and 67.2 marks respectively. The 4th to 8th ranks go to the Civil Aid Service, the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department, with ratings at 66.3, 59.7, 58.3, 54.5 and 52.0 marks respectively. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 44.2 marks, with 29% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. People’s latest satisfaction rate toward the Police Force is 37%, dissatisfaction rate 47%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 9 percentage points, which is 10 percentage points higher than the figure half a year ago, but the change has not gone beyond sampling error. The mean score is 2.7, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much. Only that the rating of the Civil Aid Service has surpassed those of the Customs and Excise Department and the Immigration Department to rank the fourth. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 51.4 marks. Its satisfaction rate is 37%, dissatisfaction rate 24%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 12 percentage points and a mean score of 3.2, meaning close to “half-half” in general.

Compared with half a year ago, the rating of the Civil Aid Service has increased significantly, whereas those of the Auxiliary Medical Service, the Customs and Excise Department and the Immigration Department have dropped significantly. The latter two have registered record lows since the relevant questions first started in 2012, while those of the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Independent Commission Against Corruption have registered record lows since they were first started in 2013.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 23 to 26 November, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 21 May, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

14/5/21 The government freezes Jimmy Lai’s personal assets under the national security law.
8/5/21 The Department of Health lays charges against two patients infected with coronavirus variant for withholding information on their whereabouts.
23/4/21 Former member of Hong Kong National Front is jailed for 12 years for possessing explosives.
16/4/21 9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly.
15/4/21 The government holds “National Security Education Day”.
13/4/21 The government will make law to ban public call to not vote or cast blank or spoilt votes.
1/3/21 The court reviews 47 democrats’ bail application overnight.
28/2/21 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”.
23/2/21 The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified.
9/2/21 The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai.
2/2/21 The government continues to lock down multiple areas for compulsory testing and says officials may break into flats.
1/2/21 The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns.
6/1/21 Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law.
31/12/20 The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody.
30/12/20 Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong.
25/12/20 Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles.
12/12/20 Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”.
8/12/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing.
5/12/20 Designated judge for national security cases Victor So receives death threat.
3/12/20 Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody.
2/12/20 Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison.
30/11/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations.

Data Analysis

Our latest survey shows that the Fire Services Department continues to be people’s most satisfied disciplinary force, with a rating of 79.5 marks. The 2nd and 3rd places go to the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Government Flying Service, with 74.2 and 67.2 marks respectively. The 4th to 8th ranks go to the Civil Aid Service, the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 44.2 marks, with 29% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate stands at negative 9 percentage points. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much over the past six months. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 51.4 marks. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 12 percentage points.

Compared with half a year ago, the rating of the Civil Aid Service has increased significantly, whereas those of the Auxiliary Medical Service, the Customs and Excise Department and the Immigration Department have dropped significantly. The latter two have registered record lows since the relevant questions first started in 2012, while those of the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Independent Commission Against Corruption have registered record lows since they were first started in 2013.

 

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