POP releases the latest popularity of cross-strait political figures(2021-08-03)

Aug 03, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

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Detailed Findings

 

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,003 and 1,000 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late June to July. Our survey shows that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 64.5 marks. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping. Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Wang Yi and Tsai Ing-wen occupied the 6th to 9th ranks. The 10th rank fell to Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Xi Jinping continues to increase significantly, while that of Tsai Ing-wen continues to drop significantly. Meanwhile, the rating of Jiang Zemin has reached a record high since 2014. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 51.8 and 41.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 48.5%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.3 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

    Naming stage Rating stage
Date of survey : 30/6-8/7/2021 19-22/7/2021
Sample size[1] : 1,003 (including 503 landline and 500 mobile samples) 1,000 (including 499 landline and 501 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 46.4% 48.5%
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.3 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 contemporary leaders in China or Taiwan whom they knew best. The top 12 nominees then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political figures using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom ones in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 cross-strait political figures. Recent ratings of the top 10 cross-strait political figures are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:

Date of survey 14-15/1/20 22-24/7/20 18-22/1/21 19-22/7/21 Latest change
Sample size[4] 508 510 541-649 652-706
Response rate 57.7% 56.5% 67.2% 48.5%
Latest findings[5] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
Zhu Rongji 59.0{1}[6] 61.6{1} 67.7{1}[6] 64.5+/-2.3{1} 83.0% -3.1
Wen Jiabao 51.7{3}[6] 54.4{3} 61.9{2}[6] 61.2+/-2.1{2} 89.3% -0.7
Hu Jintao 48.4{4}[6] 51.1{4} 58.0{3}[6] 57.9+/-2.0{3} 86.9% -0.1
Li Keqiang 44.6{6}[6] 46.4{5} 54.5{4}[6] 56.9+/-2.5{4} 86.8% +2.4
Xi Jinping 39.9{7}[6] 40.7{8} 50.9{6}[6] 55.4+/-3.1{5} 90.5% +4.5[6]
Ma Ying-jeou 44.8{5}[6] 45.9{7} 50.7{7}[6] 51.1+/-1.9{6} 90.8% +0.4
Jiang Zemin 38.3{8}[6] 46.2{6} 49.1{8} 50.4+/-2.2{7} 84.9% +1.3
Wang Yi 49.1+/-3.3{8} 68.1%
Tsai Ing-wen 57.6{2}[6] 57.6{2} 52.8{5}[6] 48.6+/-2.6{9} 91.2% -4.2[6]
Chen Shui-bian 22.9{10} 23.1{10} 27.3{10}[6] 26.3+/-1.9{10} 87.1% -1.0
Wang Qishan 53.3[7] 51.8+/-3.0[7] 62.6% -1.5
Su Tseng-chang 40.2[7] 41.2+/-2.6[7] 58.9% +0.9
Han Kuo-yu 28.6{9}[6] 24.6{9} 33.5{9}[6]
Lee Teng-hui 37.0[7] 36.7[7]
Han Zheng 33.2[7]
Soong Chu-yu 32.0[7]

[3] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[4] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[5] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[7] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

The latest survey revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 64.5 marks. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping with scores of 61.2, 57.9, 56.9 and 55.4 marks respectively. Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Wang Yi and Tsai Ing-wen occupied the 6th to 9th ranks with 51.1, 50.4, 49.1 and 48.6 marks correspondingly. The 10th rank fell to Chen Shui-bian with a score of 26.3 marks. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Xi Jinping continues to increase significantly, while that of Tsai Ing-wen continues to drop significantly. Meanwhile, the rating of Jiang Zemin has reached a record high since 2014. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 51.8 and 41.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.

It should be noted that our list of “top 10 cross-strait political figures” only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 18 to 22 January, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 July, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

16/7/21 Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess.
5/7/21 Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law.
1/7/21 Xi Jinping delivers a speech at Chinese Communist Party’s 100th anniversary ceremony.
25/6/21 John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively.
12/6/21 Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong.
10/6/21 NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”.
10/4/21 Alibaba is fined RMB 18.2 billion for violating anti-monopoly law.
30/3/21 NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system.
25/3/21 Chinese consumers start a boycott campaign against international brands refusing to use Xinjiang cottons.
19/3/21 China and US officials meet in Alaska.
17/3/21 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office hold seminars on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system.
11/3/21 The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system.
6/3/21 Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng attend CPCC joint group meeting about Hong Kong and Macau.
5/3/21 The fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress begins, Li Keqiang delivers the government work report.
22/2/21 Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”.
5/2/21 Luo Huining holds liaison office’s annual spring reception online and delivers a speech.
27/1/21 Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 64.5 marks. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping. Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Wang Yi and Tsai Ing-wen occupied the 6th to 9th ranks. The 10th rank fell to Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Xi Jinping continues to increase significantly, while that of Tsai Ing-wen continues to drop significantly. Meanwhile, the rating of Jiang Zemin has reached a record high since 2014. Wang Qishan and Su Tseng-chang obtained support ratings of 51.8 and 41.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.

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