HKPORI releases the latest popularities of SAR Government, PSI, trust and confidence indicators along with GGPI (2022-03-01)

Mar 01, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung – Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Owan Li – Former Yau Tsim Mong District Councillor
Online Commentator:
KC Poon – Independent Commentator

Detailed Findings

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (PORI) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “PORI” in this release can refer to Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

PORI successfully interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late February. Our survey shows that the latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 48 percentage points, which has dropped by 8 percentage points from a month ago and registered a record low since October 2020, yet the change is within sampling error. Meanwhile the net trust value stands at negative 18 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 51 and negative 55 percentage points respectively. The net satisfaction rates of all conditions have dropped significantly compared to a month ago. The drop registered for the livelihood condition was as large as 15 percentage points, registering a record low since October 2020, while the net satisfaction rate of economic condition has registered a record low since February 2021. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 67.7, down by 10.2 points from early February. Regarding people’s trust in governments, 30% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 52% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 18% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 18, positive 21 and negative 18 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has significantly increased by 25 percentage points, registering a new high since December 2009. As for the confidence indicators, 66% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 41 percentage points, which has significantly increased by 14 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2018. On the other hand, 43% and 46% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 8 and negative 1 percentage points respectively. The latter has registered a new record high since January 2018. The effective response rate of the survey is 49.7%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 21-24/2/2022
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,002 (including 505 landline and 497 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 49.7%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.
  • This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
  • All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of SAR Government

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 16-23/9/21 18-22/10/21 15-18/11/21 9-14/12/21 17-20/1/22 21-24/2/22 Latest change
Sample size 666-703 598-622 655-677 589-616 561-602 659-685
Response rate 44.1% 52.2% 53.7% 58.0% 48.4% 49.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[3] 25% 26% 26% 25% 20% 16+/-3% -4%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[3] 54% 55% 56% 56% 60% 64+/-4% +4%
Net satisfaction rate -30% -29% -30% -31% -39% -48+/-6% -8%
Mean value[3] 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1+/-0.1 -0.1
Trust in HKSAR Government[3] 35% 38% 42% 39% 36% 30+/-4% -6%[4]
Distrust in HKSAR Government[3] 48% 44% 44% 50%[4] 49% 48+/-4% -1%
Net trust -13% -6% -2% -11% -13% -18+/-7% -5%
Mean value[3] 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5+/-0.1 -0.1
  • Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
  • The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 16-23/9/21 18-22/10/21 15-18/11/21 9-14/12/21 17-20/1/22 21-24/2/22 Latest change
Sample size 1,036 1,000 1,004 1,017 1,001 1,002
Response rate 44.1% 52.2% 53.7% 58.0% 48.4% 49.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[5]
28%[6] 25% 29% 27% 24% 20+/-3% -5%[6]
Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[5]
54% 53% 52% 53% 53% 55+/-3% +3%
Net satisfaction rate -25%[6] -28% -23% -27% -29% -36+/-5% -7%[6]
Mean value[5] 2.4[6] 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2+/-0.1 -0.2[6]
Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[5]
23% 25% 27% 24% 21% 15+/-2% -6%[6]
Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[5]
52% 52% 55% 52% 57%[6] 66+/-3% +9%[6]
Net satisfaction rate -29% -27% -28% -28% -37%[6] -51+/-5% -15%[6]
Mean value[5] 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4[6] 2.1+/-0.1 -0.3[6]
Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[5]
21% 25%[6] 27% 23%[6] 17%[6] 13+/-2% -4%[6]
Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[5]
53% 51% 51% 47% 61%[6] 68+/-3% +7%[6]
Net satisfaction rate -32% -26% -24% -24% -45%[6] -55+/-4% -11%[6]
Mean value[5] 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.3[6] 2.1+/-0.1 -0.2[6]
  • Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
  • The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the latest satisfaction rate of the HKSAR Government is 16%, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 64%, thus the net satisfaction is negative 48 percentage points, which has dropped by 8 percentage points from a month ago and registered a record low since October 2020, yet the change is within sampling error. The mean score is 2.1, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 30% of the respondents expressed trust, 48% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 18 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general.

As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 20%, 15% and 13% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 51 and negative 55 percentage points respectively. The mean scores fall between 2.1 and 2.2, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. The net satisfaction rates of all conditions have dropped significantly compared to a month ago. The drop registered for the livelihood condition was as large as 15 percentage points, registering a record low since October 2020, while the net satisfaction rate of economic condition has registered a record low since February 2021.

Public Sentiment Index

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by PORI aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.

The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

Latest figure Public Sentiment Index
(PSI): 67.7 (-10.2)
Government Appraisal
(GA): 69.7 (-2.9)
Society Appraisal
(SA): 65.3 (-15.5)

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

Cut-off date 3/12/21 14/12/21 6/1/22 20/1/22 10/2/22 24/2/22 Latest change
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) 87.1 86.8 85.9 78.7 77.9 67.7 -10.2
Government Appraisal (GA) 79.5 78.0 76.4 74.0 72.6 69.7 -2.9
Rating of CE 34.6 35.8 33.8 33.8[7] 31.9 31.9[7]
Net approval rate of CE -45% -42% -48% -48%[7] -53% -53%[7]
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG 2.4[7] 2.4 2.4[7] 2.2 2.2[7] 2.1 -0.1
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG 2.8[7] 2.7 2.7[7] 2.6 2.6[7] 2.5 -0.1
Society Appraisal (SA) 90.2[7] 91.2 91.2[7] 80.7 80.7[7] 65.3 -15.5
People’s satisfaction with political condition 2.4[7] 2.4 2.4[7] 2.4 2.4[7] 2.2 -0.2
Weighting index of political condition 0.31[7] 0.31 0.31[7] 0.31[7] 0.31[7] 0.31[7]
People’s satisfaction with economic condition 2.6[7] 2.6 2.6[7] 2.3 2.3[7] 2.1 -0.2
Weighting index of economic condition 0.34[7] 0.34 0.34[7] 0.34[7] 0.34[7] 0.34[7]
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition 2.5[7] 2.5 2.5[7] 2.4 2.4[7] 2.1 -0.3
Weighting index of livelihood condition 0.35[7] 0.35 0.35[7] 0.35[7] 0.35[7] 0.35[7]
  • PORI will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

Score value Percentile Score value Percentile
140-200 Highest 1% 0-60 Lowest 1%
125 Highest 5% 75 Lowest 5%
120 Highest 10% 80 Lowest 10%
110 Highest 25% 90 Lowest 25%
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below

The latest PSI stands at 67.7, down by 10.2 points from early February. It can be considered as among the worst 2% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 2.9 points to 69.7, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment decreases by 15.5 points to 65.3. They can be considered as among the worst 2% and 1% across the past 20 years or so respectively. The PSI and the SA have registered record lows since February 2021 and January 2021 respectively.

Trust and Confidence Indicators

Recent trust in SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:

Date of survey 18-22/10/21 15-18/11/21 9-14/12/21 17-20/1/22 21-24/2/22 Latest change
Sample size 598 677 589 602 659
Response rate 52.2% 53.7% 58.0% 48.4% 49.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Trust in HKSAR Government[8]
(repeated listing)
38% 42% 39% 36% 30+/-4% -6%[9]
Distrust in HKSAR Government[8]
(repeated listing)
44% 44% 50%[9] 49% 48+/-4% -1%
Net trust (repeated listing) -6% -2% -11% -13% -18+/-7% -5%
Mean value[8] (repeated listing) 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5+/-0.1 -0.1

 

Date of survey 17-19/2/20 17-20/8/20 24-26/2/21 20-26/8/21 21-24/2/22 Latest change
Sample size 575-612 597-644 575-620 666-674 665-678
Response rate 64.6% 60.9% 57.2% 52.9% 49.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Trust in Beijing Government[8] 20% 28%[9] 41%[9] 38% 52+/-4% +14%[9]
Distrust in Beijing Government[8] 63% 58% 43%[9] 42% 31+/-4% -11%[9]
Net trust -43% -29%[9] -2%[9] -4% 21+/-7% +25%[9]
Mean value[8] 2.1 2.4[9] 2.9[9] 2.8 3.3+/-0.1 +0.4[9]
Trust in Taiwan Government[8] 38%[9] 35% 30% 21%[9] 18+/-3% -3%
Distrust in Taiwan Government[8] 28%[9] 34%[9] 39% 41% 36+/-4% -5%
Net trust 10%[9] 2% -9%[9] -20%[9] -18+/-6% +2%
Mean value[8] 3.1[9] 2.9[9] 2.7[9] 2.5[9] 2.5+/-0.1 -0.1
Confidence in HK’s future 26%[9] 38%[9] 48%[9] 46% 43+/-4% -4%
No-confidence in HK’s future 70%[9] 57%[9] 46%[9] 48% 50+/-4% +3%
Net confidence -44%[9] -19%[9] 3%[9] -1% -8+/-8% -6%
Confidence in China’s future 39% 43% 62%[9] 60% 66+/-4% +6%[9]
No-confidence in China’s future 52% 48% 28%[9] 33% 25+/-3% -8%[9]
Net confidence -13% -4% 34%[9] 27% 41+/-7% +14%[9]
Confidence in “one country,
two systems”
27%[9] 35%[9] 45%[9] 45% 46+/-4% +1%
No-confidence in “one country,
two systems”
68%[9] 61%[9] 50%[9] 51% 47+/-4% -4%
Net confidence -41%[9] -26%[9] -5%[9] -6% -1+/-7% +5%
  • Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
  • The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Regarding people’s trust in governments, 30% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 52% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 18% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 18, positive 21 and negative 18 percentage points, while the mean scores are 2.5, 3.3 and 2.5 respectively, meaning trust in the HKSAR Government and Taiwan Government are between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general whilst trust in the Beijing Central Government is between “half-half” and “quite trust” in general. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has significantly increased by 25 percentage points, registering a new high since December 2009.

As for the confidence indicators, 66% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 41 percentage points, which has significantly increased by 14 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2018. On the other hand, 43% and 46% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 8 and negative 1 percentage points respectively. The latter has registered a new record high since January 2018.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, PORI started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to PORI a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by PORI. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by PORI.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 20 to 26 August, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 24 February, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

23/2/22 The government delivers the new Budget, and will spend more than HK$170 billion on counter-cyclical measures.
22/2/22 The government announces the implementation of compulsory mass testing in March.
21/2/22 The government announces the implementation of the Vaccine Pass arrangement starting from February 24.
18/2/22 Carrie Lam announces the postponement of the Chief Executive Election to May 8 by invoking the Emergency Regulations Ordinance.
17/2/22 First group of pandemic experts supporting Hong Kong from mainland China arrives.
16/2/22 Xi Jinping issues instructions on supporting Hong Kong in combatting the pandemic.
9/2/22 Hong Kong reports 1161 cases, registering a record high.
8/2/22 The government tightens the anti-epidemic measures, limiting multi-household gatherings and launching vaccine pass.
31/1/22 Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui announces his resignation.
27/1/22 The government extends anti-epidemic measures until February 17 and announces the launch of “vaccine pass” on February 24.
21/1/22 The government announces five-day lockdown at Yat Kwai House in Kwai Chung Estate for mandatory virus testing due to the outbreak of COVID-19.
18/1/22 The government culls 2,000 animals after a hamster contracts COVID-19.
17/1/22 National Bureau of Statistics announces that China’s GDP grows 8.1% in 2021.
14/1/22 The government extends anti-epidemic measures until February 3 and announces details for the fifth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund.
6/1/22 Government senior officials attend Witman Hung’s birthday party.
31/12/21 The government announces the tightening of anti-epidemic measures.
29/12/21 Stand News closes after seven senior staff members are arrested.
20/12/21 90 members of the Legislative Council are elected.
8/12/21 The government publishes the “Long Term Housing Strategy” annual progress report.
6/12/21 Xia Baolong says the “patriots administering Hong Kong” principle aims at achieving participation of people from diverse backgrounds.
29/11/21 The government bans non-residents arriving from multiple countries in response to the spread of Omicron variant.
23/11/21 The government announces the extension of mandatory use of “LeaveHomeSafe” app to more premises starting from December 9.
16/11/21 Xi Jinping and Biden meet virtually.
12/11/21 The sixth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the third historical resolution in party history.
31/10/21 Starting from tomorrow, it is mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises.
8/10/21 The government publishes the “Hong Kong 2030+” strategic planning final report.
7/10/21 The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”.
27/9/21 The government releases the Report on Hong Kong’s Business Environment.
25/9/21 Meng Wanzhou is freed and returns to China.
24/9/21 China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes the “Fact Sheet: U.S. Interference in Hong Kong Affairs and Support for Anti-China, Destabilizing Forces”.
20/9/21 364 members of the Election Committee are elected.
20/9/21 Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers.
24/8/21 The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 48 percentage points, which has dropped by 8 percentage points from a month ago and registered a record low since October 2020, yet the change is within sampling error. Meanwhile the net trust value stands at negative 18 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 51 and negative 55 percentage points respectively. The net satisfaction rates of all conditions have dropped significantly compared to a month ago. The drop registered for the livelihood condition was as large as 15 percentage points, registering a record low since October 2020, while the net satisfaction rate of economic condition has registered a record low since February 2021.

As for the PSI, the latest figure is 67.7, down by 10.2 points from early February.

Regarding people’s trust in governments, 30% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 52% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 18% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 18, positive 21 and negative 18 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has significantly increased by 25 percentage points, registering a new high since December 2009. As for the confidence indicators, 66% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 41 percentage points, which has significantly increased by 14 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2018. On the other hand, 43% and 46% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively, while net confidence stands at negative 8 and negative 1 percentage points respectively. The latter has registered a new record high since January 2018.

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