PORI releases June Fourth Incident Sentiment Review under “One Country Two Systems 25-year Mid-term Review” (2022-06-14)

June 14, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Detailed Findings

 

Special Announcements

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (PORI) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “PORI” in this release can refer to Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute or its predecessor HKUPOP.

PORI reviews and adjusts its work once every six months. Some changes have already been started after May 4 (i.e., PORI’s 3rd Anniversary), including reducing the frequency of press conferences and developing online civic education. Last week, we have officially kickstarted the “One Country Two Systems 25-year Mid-term Review”. The first phase of the review will take two months, in different forms of releases each week. We kickstarted with the popularity of officials last week, then June Fourth wrap-up this week, followed by ethnic identity and then handover anniversaries, more details to be announced. Meanwhile, starting from July, we plan to reduce the frequency of our tracking surveys from twice a month to once a month, in order to conserve resources for civic education and mid-term review. Meanwhile, PORI would also like to stress the separation of comments from figures, so that the responsibility of all personal comments arising from our scientific research lies entirely on the commentators concerned, not PORI.

Abstract

PORI successfully interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of May. Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people’s mainstream opinion still holds that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989, people still support the Beijing students and a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth, but all these figures have registered significant drops from last year, of which the percentages of people holding that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989 and supporting the Beijing students have registered historical lows. Meanwhile, the number of those who did not support a reversion of the official stand has reached a historical high. On the other hand, the percentages of people who consider the human rights condition in China worse than that in 1989 and those who think the condition will worsen in the next three years have decreased significantly compared to a year ago. More Hong Kong people think that they have a responsibility to promote economic development in China while the number of respondents who thought Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate democratic development in China decreased significantly and registered a historical low. When comparing democratic and economic development, more respondents think that Hong Kong people should give more weight to the economic development in China, while more Hong Kong people think China should emphasize more on the development of economy now. The effective response rate of the survey is 40.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3% at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 12-20/5/2022
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,003 (including 503 landline and 500 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 40.9%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2021”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2021 Edition)”.
  • This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
  • All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Figures of the latest June Fourth anniversary survey are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 21-25/5/18 20-23/5/19 19-21/5/20 17-21/5/21 12-20/5/22 Latest change
Sample size 1,009 1,013 1,001 1,004 1,003
Response rate 55.9% 61.9% 55.6% 52.5% 40.9%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Proportion of respondents believing:            
The Beijing students did the right thing 50%[3] 52% 52% 42%[3] 36+/-3% -6%[3]
The Beijing students did the wrong thing 17%[3] 21% 20% 22% 21+/-3% -1%
The Chinese Government did the right thing 11% 13% 15% 19%[3] 23+/-3% +4%[3]
The Chinese Government did the wrong thing 68% 68% 66% 54%[3] 45+/-3% -9%[3]
There should be a reversion of the official stand on the incident 54% 59% 59% 47%[3] 40+/-3% -7%[3]
There should not be a reversion of the official stand on the incident 24% 23% 23% 28%[3] 30+/-3% +2%
China’s human rights condition has improved since 1989 47%[3] 44% 38%[3] 43%[3] 50+/-3% +6%[3]
China’s human rights condition has worsened since 1989 28%[3] 33%[3] 43%[3] 34%[3] 23+/-3% -11%[3]
China’s human rights condition would improve after 3 years 34%[3] 32% 29% 37%[3] 37+/-3%
China’s human rights condition would worsen after 3 years 31%[3] 37%[3] 44%[3] 33%[3] 26+/-3% -7%[3]
HK people have a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China 56% 62%[3] 51%[3] 51% 45+/-3% -6%[3]
HK people have no responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China 31% 28% 36%[3] 34% 36+/-3% +2%
HK people have a responsibility to instigate economic development in China 59% 59% 45%[3] 53%[3] 56+/-3% +2%
HK people have no responsibility to instigate economic development in China 33% 35% 45%[3] 37%[3] 33+/-3% -4%
HK people should put more effort on instigating economic than democratic development in China 35% 31%[3] 28% 34%[3] 36+/-3% +2%
HK people should put more effort on instigating democratic than economic development in China 36% 44%[3] 44% 32%[3] 25+/-3% -7%[3]
China should emphasize economic development more 32% 31% 29% 33% 35+/-3% +2%
China should emphasize democratic development more 45% 50%[3] 49% 39%[3] 30+/-3% -9%[3]
  • The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

This year’s survey findings revealed that 36% of the respondents believed that the Beijing students did the right thing in 1989, which decreased significantly from last year and registered a historical low, while 21% believed that they did the wrong thing. Meanwhile, with regard to the way the Chinese Government handled the matter at that time, the proportion of respondents regarded it as correct increased significantly to 23%, setting a historical high again, whereas 45% regarded it as wrong, representing a significant drop and registering a historical low. The findings also showed that the number of respondents who supported a reversion of the official stand on the incident decreased significantly to 40%, setting a new record low since 2002. Meanwhile, 30% did not support a reversion, registering a historical high.

Regarding the human rights condition in China, 50% of the respondents believed that China’s human rights condition has improved since 1989, which has increased significantly compared to a year ago, and 37% anticipated that China’s human rights condition will improve after 3 years. On the contrary, 23% and 26% thought it has worsened since 1989 and will get worse in 3 years’ time respectively. Both figures have decreased significantly compared to a year ago.

Moreover, 45% of the respondents thought that Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate democratic development in China, which has decreased significantly compared to a year ago and registered a historical low, whereas 36% thought otherwise. On the other hand, the number of people who thought Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate economic development in China stands at 56%, while the number of people who thought no such responsibility now stands at 33%. Both figures have not changed much compared to a year ago.

When comparing democratic and economic development, 36% of the respondents believed Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating economic development in China, which registered a new record high since 2010. While 25% of the respondents put more weight on the development of democracy, representing a significant drop and a new record low since 2008. On the other hand, 35% believed that China should emphasize economic development more, registering a new record high since 2010, while 30% inclined toward democratic development. The proportion dropped significantly and registered a new record low since 2008.

Upcoming Press Releases / Press Conferences (Tentative)

  • [Press Conference] June 17 (Friday) at 14:30
    We Hongkongers: Youth matters survey
    Guest commentators: Benson Wong & Chris Li
  • [Press Conference] June 21 (Tuesday) at 14:30
    Wrap up on people’s ethnic identity
    Guest commentator: Derek Yuen
  • [Press Conference] June 24 (Friday) at 14:30
    We Hongkongers: Voluntary Health Insurance
    Guest commentator: Kim-wah Chung
  • [Press Release] June 28 (Tuesday) at 14:30
    Wrap up on HKSAR anniversary survey, popularity figures of the government, Public Sentiment Index and five core social indicators
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