HKPOP releases the appraisal of society’s current condition as well as the latest GGPI(2022-01-04)

Jan 04, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung – Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Owan Li – Former Yau Tsim Mong District Councillor
Edward Tai – Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Online Commentator:
KC Poon – Independent Commentator

Detailed Findings

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-December last year. Our survey shows that people’s net satisfaction rates with the current economic, political and livelihood conditions are negative 24, negative 27 and negative 28 percentage points respectively. All three net satisfaction rates have not changed significantly compared to a month ago. Using a one-in-three choices method, 44% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems currently, while 26% each attached their greatest concern to political and economic problems. Compared to half a year ago, various figures have not changed much, but the percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has registered a record high since 2012. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems are 7.40, 7.20 and 6.16 marks respectively. These figures also have not changed much compared to half a year ago, but people’s concern over livelihood problems has again registered a record low since 2017, while concern over political problems has again registered a record low since December 2018. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.0%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-0.24 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 9-14/12/2021
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,017 (including 505 landline and 512 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 58.0%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.24 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows (the figures have been released in the press release on December 21 last year):

Date of survey 19-22/7/21 20-26/8/21 16-23/9/21 18-22/10/21 15-18/11/21 9-14/12/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,000 1,003 1,036 1,000 1,004 1,017
Response rate 48.5% 52.9% 44.1% 52.2% 53.7% 58.0%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[3]
20% 23% 21% 25%[4] 27% 23+/-3% -4%[4]
Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[3]
54% 51% 53% 51% 51% 47+/-3% -4%
Net satisfaction rate -33% -28% -32% -26% -24% -24+/-5%
Mean value[3] 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6+/-0.1
Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[3]
26%[4] 24% 28%[4] 25% 29% 27+/-3% -2%
Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[3]
57%[4] 58% 54% 53% 52% 53+/-3% +2%
Net satisfaction rate -30%[4] -34% -25%[4] -28% -23% -27+/-5% -3%
Mean value[3] 2.3[4] 2.3 2.4[4] 2.4 2.4 2.4+/-0.1
Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[3]
21% 20% 23% 25% 27% 24+/-3% -4%
Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[3]
57% 54% 52% 52% 55% 52+/-3% -3%
Net satisfaction rate -36% -34% -29% -27% -28% -28+/-5% -1%
Mean value[3] 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5+/-0.1

[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

People’s latest satisfaction rates with the current economic, political and livelihood conditions are 23%, 27% and 24% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 24, negative 27 and negative 28 percentage points respectively. The mean scores fall between 2.4 and 2.6, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. All three net satisfaction rates have not changed significantly compared to a month ago.

The latest survey results on people’s level of concern for social problems are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 17-20/12/18 13-18/12/19 15-18/6/20 18-22/12/20 21-25/6/21 9-14/12/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,000 1,046 1,002 620 592 609
Response rate 60.6% 61.6% 54.1% 68.7% 49.3% 58.0%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Most concerned with livelihood problems 66% 41%[6] 44% 53%[6] 44%[6] 44+/-4%
Most concerned with political problems 13% 40%[6] 35%[6] 24%[6] 28% 26+/-4% -2%
Most concerned with economic problems 19% 16% 19% 18% 23%[6] 26+/-4% +3%
Rating on concern for livelihood problems[5] 7.46 7.57 7.84[6] 7.48[6] 7.43[6] 7.40+/-0.16 -0.03
Rating on concern for economic problems[5] 6.99 6.90 7.32[6] 7.18 7.06[6] 7.20+/-0.18 +0.14
Rating on concern for political problems[5] 6.05 7.09[6] 7.24 6.87[6] 6.33[6] 6.16+/-0.24 -0.17

[5] From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.

[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The latest survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, 44% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems currently, while 26% each attached their greatest concern to political and economic problems. Compared to half a year ago, various figures have not changed much, but the percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has registered a record high since 2012. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems are 7.40, 7.20 and 6.16 marks respectively. These figures also have not changed much compared to half a year ago, but people’s concern over livelihood problems has again registered a record low since 2017, while concern over political problems has again registered a record low since December 2018.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 21 to 25 June, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 9 to 14 December, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

14/12/21 John Lee leads a delegation to Shenzhen to discuss details of border reopening with officials from Guangdong.
10/12/21 187,000 people have registered on the day the “Hong Kong Health Code” system opens.
8/12/21 The government publishes the “Long Term Housing Strategy” annual progress report.
6/12/21 Xia Baolong says the “patriots administering Hong Kong” principle aims at achieving participation of people from diverse backgrounds.
29/11/21 The government bans non-residents arriving from multiple countries in response to the spread of Omicron variant.
23/11/21 The government announces the extension of mandatory use of “LeaveHomeSafe” app to more premises starting from December 9.
19/11/21 The Candidate Eligibility Review Committee announces the review results of candidates for the Legislative Council election.
12/11/21 Nomination period for Legislative Council election ends with 154 candidates competing for 90 seats.
9/11/21 CLP Power and Hongkong Electric will increase their tariffs by 5.8% and 7% respectively.
1/11/21 Five people are arrested for using fake “LeaveHomeSafe” apps.
31/10/21 Starting from tomorrow, it is mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises.
26/10/21 The government will axe most quarantine exemptions to facilitate border reopening with mainland China.
8/10/21 The government publishes the “Hong Kong 2030+” strategic planning final report.
7/10/21 The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”.
6/10/21 Carrie Lam delivers the last Policy Address during her term of office.
24/9/21 China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes the “Fact Sheet: U.S. Interference in Hong Kong Affairs and Support for Anti-China, Destabilizing Forces”.
20/9/21 364 members of the Election Committee are elected.
7/9/21 The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme.
6/9/21 The Central Government releases the development plan of Qianhai.
31/8/21 The government proposes amendments to relax requirements for non-locally trained doctors to practise in Hong Kong.
26/8/21 The Legislative Council passes waste-charging bill.
24/8/21 The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security.
23/8/21 Officials from the Central Government explain the 14th five-year plan to Hong Kong government officials.
18/8/21 Police arrests four members of the HKU Students’ Union who allegedly advocated terrorism.
15/8/21 Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment.
10/8/21 The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved.
2/8/21 The government requires four targeted groups to undergo regular testing at their own expense if they do not get vaccinated.
1/8/21 The government delivers the first batch of electronic consumption vouchers worth $2,000.
31/7/21 The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union.
30/7/21 Tong Ying-kit is jailed for 9 years for inciting secession and terrorism.
16/7/21 Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess.
11/7/21 Hong Kong confirms a case of coronavirus disease, leading to compulsory testing for tens of thousands of airport staff.
4/7/21 Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online.
3/7/21 The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”.
2/7/21 A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay.
25/6/21 John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively.
23/6/21 Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that people’s net satisfaction rates with the current economic, political and livelihood conditions are negative 24, negative 27 and negative 28 percentage points respectively. All three net satisfaction rates have not changed significantly compared to a month ago. Using a one-in-three choices method, 44% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems currently, while 26% each attached their greatest concern to political and economic problems. Compared to half a year ago, various figures have not changed much, but the percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has registered a record high since 2012. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems are 7.40, 7.20 and 6.16 marks respectively. These figures also have not changed much compared to half a year ago, but people’s concern over livelihood problems has again registered a record low since 2017, while concern over political problems has again registered a record low since December 2018.

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