HKPOP releases the results of a new round of LC Election Survey, popularities of CE and Secretaries of Departments as well as Five Core Social Indicators along with GGPI (2021-12-07)

Dec 7, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung – Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Kenneth Chan – Member, Election Observation Project
Edward Tai – Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Online Commentator:
KC Poon – Independent Commentator

Detailed Findings

 

POP releases popularity figures of CE and Directors of Bureaux
along with five core social indicators

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late November to early December. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 34.6 marks, which has not changed much from half a month ago, while 35% of respondents gave her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 45 percentage points, which has significantly decreased by 9 percentage points compared to half a month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, 3 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. They are Patrick Nip, Wong Kam-sing and Chris Tang. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone down. Among them, those of Law Chi-kwong, Frank Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Christopher Hui, Edward Yau and Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling error. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.03, 4.82, 4.77, 4.59 and 3.94 respectively. Among them, the “stability”, “freedom” and “prosperity” indicators have registered significant drops compared with a month ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 44.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 29/11-3/12/2021
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,001 (including 500 landline and 501 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 44.9%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.0 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and Directors of Bureaux

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 16-23/9/21 4-7/10/21[3] 18-22/10/21 29/10-3/11/21 15-18/11/21 29/11-3/12/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,036 1,010 1,000 1,004 1,004 1,001
Response rate 44.1% 62.9% 52.2% 50.1% 53.7% 44.9%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 33.9 38.3[4] 37.0 35.7 37.4 34.6+/-2.0 -2.8
Vote of confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
20%[4] 24%[4] 22% 23% 24% 21+/-3% -4%
Vote of no confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
66% 59%[4] 64%[4] 66% 60%[4] 66+/-3% +6%[4]
Net approval rate -46% -35%[4] -42% -42% -36% -45+/-5% -9%[4]

[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 6/10/2021 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 30.5 marks, net approval rate at negative 48 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 16-23/9/2021.

[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux sorted by net approval rates[5] are summarized below:

Date of survey 3-7/5/21 30/6-8/7/21 6-10/9/21 29/11-3/12/21 Latest change
Sample size 614-647 606-626 604-631 601-636
Response rate 55.5% 46.4% 44.2% 44.9%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 24% 32%[6] 30% 31+/-4% +1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 39% 32%[6] 27% 29+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -15% 1%[6] 3% 2+/-6% -1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 29%[6] 29% 33% 27+/-4% -6%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 27% 22%[6] 18% 26+/-4% +7%[6]
Net approval rate 2% 7% 14% 1+/-6% -13%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang 43% 43% 40+/-4% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang 41% 40% 39+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate 2% 2% 1+/-7% -1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 21% 26%[6] 27% 23+/-4% -4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 25% 20%[6] 20% 23+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -5% 6%[6] 7% -<1+/-6% -7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 26% 33%[6] 33% 27+/-4% -5%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 35% 30% 27% 31+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -9% 3%[6] 6% -3+/-6% -9%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 18% 24%[6] 22% 19+/-3% -4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 25% 16%[6] 17% 23+/-3% +6%[6]
Net approval rate -7% 8%[6] 5% -4+/-5% -9%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 18% 22%[6] 22% 17+/-3% -6%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 24%[6] 18%[6] 16% 22+/-3% +6%[6]
Net approval rate -6% 5%[6] 7% -5+/-5% -12%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 19% 28%[6] 25% 27+/-4% +2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 41% 30%[6] 27% 34+/-4% +6%[6]
Net approval rate -22% -2%[6] -2% -7+/-6% -5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 21% 22% 26% 18+/-3% -8%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 30% 26% 26% 26+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -9% -4% <1% -8+/-5% -8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 24%[6] 26% 29% 22+/-3% -7%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 35% 29%[6] 23%[6] 31+/-4% +8%[6]
Net approval rate -11%[6] -4% 5%[6] -9+/-6% -15%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 26% 32%[6] 32% 25+/-4% -7%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 37% 30%[6] 24%[6] 37+/-4% +12%[6]
Net approval rate -12% 3%[6] 8% -12+/-6% -20%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 24% 28% 25% 24+/-4% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 45% 36%[6] 38% 40+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -21% -8%[6] -13% -16+/-6% -2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 14% 22%[6] 21% 17+/-3% -5%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 58% 51%[6] 48% 48+/-4%
Net approval rate -44% -29%[6] -27% -31+/-6% -4%

[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.6 marks, which has not changed much from half a month ago, while 35% of respondents gave her 0 mark. Her latest approval rate is 21%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 45 percentage points, which has significantly decreased by 9 percentage points compared to half a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 3 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates, ranked from high to low are Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Security Chris Tang. The 4th to 13th positions who have got negative net approval rates go to Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone down. Among them, those of Law Chi-kwong, Frank Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Christopher Hui, Edward Yau and Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling error.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Chris Tang, Patrick Nip, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Erick Tsang, Law Chi-kwong, Sophia Chan, Frank Chan and Kevin Yeung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong, Caspar Tsui and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Carrie Lam falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the Directors of Bureaux:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Nil
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Nil
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Secretary for Security Chris Tang (40%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (31%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (27%)

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (27%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (27%)

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (25%)

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (24%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (22%)

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (17%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[7]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate
Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (23%, 46%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong (19%, 41%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui (18%, 44%)

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (17%, 38%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7]
CE Carrie Lam (66%)
“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Nil

[7] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Core Social Indicators

Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:

Date of survey 9-12/8/21 6-10/9/21 4-7/10/21 29/10-3/11/21 29/11-3/12/21 Latest change
Sample size 635-666 593-605 602-611 599-610 598-602
Response rate 49.4% 44.2% 62.9% 50.1% 44.9%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Degree of stability 4.99 5.07 5.48[8] 5.42 5.03+/-0.23 -0.39[8]
Degree of freedom 5.11[8] 4.95 5.12 5.18 4.82+/-0.26 -0.36[8]
Degree of prosperity 5.52[8] 5.02[8] 5.26 5.35 4.77+/-0.20 -0.58[8]
Compliance with the rule of law 5.06[8] 4.64[8] 4.86 4.87 4.59+/-0.25 -0.28
Degree of democracy 4.02 4.28 4.28 4.16 3.94+/-0.26 -0.23

[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.03, 4.82, 4.77, 4.59 and 3.94 respectively. Among them, the “stability”, “freedom” and “prosperity” indicators have registered significant drops compared with a month ago.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 6 to 10 September, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 29 November to 3 December, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

2/12/21 The government will launch “Hong Kong Health Code” on December 10.
29/11/21 The government bans non-residents arriving from multiple countries in response to the spread of Omicron variant.
26/11/21 The government bans non-residents arriving from eight African countries due to the spread of new coronavirus variant in Africa.
25/11/21 The government says the progress of border reopening between mainland China and Hong Kong is promising, and that “Hong Kong Health Code” will be launched in December.
23/11/21 The government announces the extension of mandatory use of “LeaveHomeSafe” app to more premises starting from December 9.
19/11/21 The Candidate Eligibility Review Committee announces the review results of candidates for the Legislative Council election.
12/11/21 Nomination period for Legislative Council election ends with 154 candidates competing for 90 seats.
10/11/21 Two pilots exempted from quarantine test positive.
9/11/21 CLP Power and Hongkong Electric will increase their tariffs by 5.8% and 7% respectively.
3/11/21 The government announces the arrangements for the third dose of COVID-19 vaccination.
1/11/21 Five people are arrested for using fake “LeaveHomeSafe” apps.
31/10/21 Starting from tomorrow, it is mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises.
26/10/21 The government will axe most quarantine exemptions to facilitate border reopening with mainland China.
8/10/21 The government publishes the “Hong Kong 2030+” strategic planning final report.
7/10/21 The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”.
6/10/21 Carrie Lam delivers the last Policy Address during her term of office.
1/10/21 The government holds a flag-raising ceremony and a reception in celebration of the National Day.
27/9/21 The government releases the Report on Hong Kong’s Business Environment.
27/9/21 Senior police inspector Kary Lam falls into the sea and dies while pursuing smuggling speedboats.
20/9/21 364 members of the Election Committee are elected.
20/9/21 Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers.
7/9/21 The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme.
6/9/21 The Central Government releases the development plan of Qianhai.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 34.6 marks, which has not changed much from half a month ago, while 35% of respondents gave her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 45 percentage points, which has significantly decreased by 9 percentage points compared to half a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 3 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. They are Patrick Nip, Wong Kam-sing and Chris Tang. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone down. Among them, those of Law Chi-kwong, Frank Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Christopher Hui, Edward Yau and Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling error.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.03, 4.82, 4.77, 4.59 and 3.94 respectively. Among them, the “stability”, “freedom” and “prosperity” indicators have registered significant drops compared with a month ago.

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