HKPOP releases Popularity of Legislative Councillors along with GGPI (2021-10-19)

Oct 19, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Detailed Findings

Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung – Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Hoi-Yu Ng – Former Lecturer, Department of Social Sciences, Education University of Hong Kong
Ms KC Poon – Independent Commentator
Edward Tai – Manager (Data Science), HKPORI

 

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,036 and 1,010 Hong Kong residents respectively by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in September and October. Our survey shows that Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Junius Ho, Priscilla Leung, Michael Tien and Alice Mak are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Michael Tien tops the list with 47.7 marks. Regina Ip and Starry Lee rank the 2nd and 3rd with 42.8 and 39.2 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Junius Ho follow with 37.1 and 32.8 marks respectively, whereas Alice Mak obtains a rating of 34.2 marks, but is dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The rating of Priscilla Leung has increased significantly by 4.2 marks compared with the last survey, while that of Michael Tien has registered record low since he was first rated in 2013. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 62.9%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Legislative Councillors Naming Legislative Councillors Rating
Date of survey : 16-23/9/2021 4-7/10/2021
Sample size[1] : 1,036 (including 517 landline and 519 mobile samples) 1,010 (including 508 landline and 502 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 44.1% 62.9%
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-2.9 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Junius Ho, Priscilla Leung, Michael Tien and Alice Mak were the top 6 councillors being mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Legislative Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Legislative Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:

Date of survey 1-2/4/20 19-20/10/20 19-22/4/21 4-7/10/21 Latest change
Sample size 500 504 572-658 656-704
Response rate 68.1% 58.3% 54.5% 62.9%
Latest findings[4] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
Michael Tien 47.7+/-2.1{1} 89.5%
Regina Ip 39.8{1} 42.8+/-2.7{2} 92.7% +3.0
Starry Lee 32.8{5}[5] 32.2{4} 38.6{3}[5] 39.2+/-2.6{3} 88.4% +0.6
Priscilla Leung 25.9{5} 32.9{4}[5] 37.1+/-2.8{4} 84.0% +4.2[5]
Junius Ho 32.8+/-2.9{5} 89.4%
Alice Mak 34.2+/-2.7[6] 78.8%
Paul Tse 39.5{2}
Cheng Chung-tai 28.3{5}
Elizabeth Quat 32.4[6]
Roy Kwong 60.4{1} 57.3{1}
James To 46.4{2}
Claudia Mo 50.5{4} 44.7{3}[5]
Alvin Yeung 53.5{2} 44.8[5] [6]
Eddie Chu 52.6{3}
Jeremy Tam 56.1[6]

[3] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[4] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[6] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

The latest survey shows that Michael Tien is the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 47.7 marks. Regina Ip and Starry Lee rank the 2nd and 3rd with 42.8 and 39.2 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Junius Ho follow with 37.1 and 32.8 marks respectively, whereas Alice Mak obtains a rating of 34.2 marks, but is dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The rating of Priscilla Leung has increased significantly by 4.2 marks compared with the last survey, while that of Michael Tien has registered record low since he was first rated in 2013.

It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 19 to 22 April, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 7 October, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/10/21 Carrie Lam delivers the last Policy Address during her term of office.
1/10/21 The government holds a flag-raising ceremony and a reception in celebration of the National Day.
27/9/21 Senior police inspector Kary Lam falls into the sea and dies while pursuing smuggling speedboats.
19/9/21 Election Committee Subsector Elections are held today.
31/8/21 The government proposes amendments to relax requirements for non-locally trained doctors to practise in Hong Kong.
26/8/21 The Legislative Council passes waste-charging bill.
24/8/21 The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security.
23/8/21 Officials from the Central Government explain the 14th five-year plan to Hong Kong government officials.
18/8/21 Police arrests four members of the HKU Students’ Union who allegedly advocated terrorism.
15/8/21 Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment.
10/8/21 The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved.
1/8/21 The government delivers the first batch of electronic consumption vouchers worth $2,000.
31/7/21 The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union.
16/7/21 Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess.
5/7/21 Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law.
2/7/21 A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay.
23/6/21 Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue.
17/6/21 Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law.
12/6/21 Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong.
11/6/21 The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security.
4/6/21 Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil.
28/5/21 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly.
27/5/21 The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Junius Ho, Priscilla Leung, Michael Tien and Alice Mak are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Michael Tien tops the list with 47.7 marks. Regina Ip and Starry Lee rank the 2nd and 3rd with 42.8 and 39.2 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Junius Ho follow with 37.1 and 32.8 marks respectively, whereas Alice Mak obtains a rating of 34.2 marks, but is dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The rating of Priscilla Leung has increased significantly by 4.2 marks compared with the last survey, while that of Michael Tien has registered record low since he was first rated in 2013.

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