HKPOP releases latest popularities of CE, SAR Government and political groups along with PSI (2021-09-28)

Sep 28, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung – Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Wai-Sum Kung – Former Chairman of Hong Kong Policy Viewers,part-time lecturer and social worker of youth work
Wai-Ho Yam – Vice Chairman of The Hong Kong Chamber of Education Centres
Edward Tai – Manager (Data Science), HKPORI

Detailed Findings

POP releases popularity figures of CE, SAR Government and
political groups along with PSI

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,000 and 1,036 Hong Kong residents respectively by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in September. Our surveys show that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 33.9 marks, with 36% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 46 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 30 percentage points, registering a record high since May 2019, while the net trust value stands at negative 13 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 25, negative 29 and negative 32 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for political condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points, registering a record high since 2011, while the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has also registered a record high since March 2019. The five most popularly supported political groups are HKCTU, Civic Party, Democratic Party, HKASPDMC and FTU, attaining 41.3, 40.5, 40.3, 39.2 and 38.3 marks respectively; while LSD, DAB, Liberal Party, New People’s Party and People Power rank the 6th to 10th with 38.1, 37.4, 37.2, 35.6 and 35.4 marks respectively. In addition, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 39.6 and 30.1 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to five months ago, the ratings of FTU and New People’s Party have increased significantly. Their ratings together with that of DAB and BPA have all registered record highs since April 2019. Meanwhile, the rating of HKCTU has also registered a record high since 2015. On the other hand, HKASPDMC re-enters the list again in 8 years, however, its rating has registered a new low since records began in 1992, while the rating of People Power has registered a record low since 2017. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 83.5, up by 1.9 points from early September. The effective response rates of the surveys are 44.2% and 44.1% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Political Groups Naming Political Groups Rating and Others
Date of survey : 6-10/9/2021 16-23/9/2021
Sample size[1] : 1,000 (including 500 landline and 500 mobile samples) 1,036 (including 517 landline and 519 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 44.2% 44.1%
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and SAR Government

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 30/6-8/7/21 19-22/7/21 9-12/8/21 20-26/8/21 6-10/9/21 16-23/9/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,003 1,000 1,002 1,003 1,000 1,036
Response rate 46.4% 48.5% 49.4% 52.9% 44.2% 44.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 34.0[3] 34.7 35.1 33.8 35.6 33.9+/-2.0 -1.8
Vote of confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
20% 20% 20% 20% 24%[3] 20+/-2% -4%[3]
Vote of no confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
67% 68% 66% 68% 65% 66+/-3% +1%
Net approval rate -47% -48% -46% -48% -41% -46+/-5% -5%

[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 19-22/4/21 17-21/5/21 21-25/6/21 19-22/7/21 20-26/8/21 16-23/9/21 Latest change
Sample size 548-613 566-646 544-583 564-624 651-662 666-703
Response rate 54.5% 52.5% 49.3% 48.5% 52.9% 44.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] 19% 17% 24%[5] 24% 21% 25+/-3% +4%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] 59% 63% 60% 58% 59% 54+/-4% -5%
Net satisfaction rate -40% -46% -36%[5] -34% -38% -30+/-6% +8%
Mean value[4] 2.2 2.1 2.3[5] 2.3 2.3 2.4+/-0.1 +0.1
Trust in HKSAR Government[4] 32% 31% 34% 38% 34% 35+/-4% +1%
Distrust in HKSAR Government[4] 52% 54% 52% 50% 50% 48+/-4% -2%
Net trust -20% -22% -18% -12% -16% -13+/-7% +3%
Mean value[4] 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6+/-0.1 +0.1

[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 19-22/4/21 17-21/5/21 21-25/6/21 19-22/7/21 20-26/8/21 16-23/9/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,004 1,004 1,014 1,000 1,003 1,036
Response rate 54.5% 52.5% 49.3% 48.5% 52.9% 44.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[6]
20% 20% 20% 26%[7] 24% 28+/-3% +4%[7]
Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[6]
60% 61% 61% 57%[7] 58% 54+/-3% -4%
Net satisfaction rate -39% -40% -41% -30%[7] -34% -25+/-5% +8%[7]
Mean value[6] 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.3[7] 2.3 2.4+/-0.1 +0.1[7]
Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[6]
15% 18% 19% 21% 20% 23+/-3% +3%
Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[6]
64% 62% 56%[7] 57% 54% 52+/-3% -2%
Net satisfaction rate -49% -44% -36%[7] -36% -34% -29+/-5% +5%
Mean value[6] 2.2 2.2 2.4[7] 2.4 2.4 2.5+/-0.1 +0.1
Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[6]
14% 17%[7] 18% 20% 23% 21+/-3% -2%
Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[6]
63% 60% 56%[7] 54% 51% 53+/-3% +2%
Net satisfaction rate -49% -43% -38% -33% -28% -32+/-5% -4%
Mean value[6] 2.2[7] 2.3 2.4[7] 2.4 2.5 2.4+/-0.1 -0.1

[6] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 33.9 marks, with 36% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 46 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed much from half a month ago.

Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 25%, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 54%, thus the net satisfaction is negative 30 percentage points, registering a record high since May 2019. The mean score is 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 35% of the respondents expressed trust, 48% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 13 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general. All these figures have not changed much from a month ago.

As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 28%, 23% and 21% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 25, negative 29 and negative 32 percentage points respectively. The mean scores fall within 2.4 and 2.5, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for political condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points, registering a record high since 2011, while the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has also registered a record high since March 2019.

Popularity of Political Groups

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party, Civic Party, Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China (HKASPDMC), Liberal Party, New People’s Party, Civic Passion, Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union (HKPTU), League of Social Democrats (LSD), Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood (ADPL), People Power, Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF) and Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU) were the political groups mentioned most frequently. Among them, Civic Passion, HKPTU and CHRF have dissolved by that time, the rest then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political groups using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 political groups. Recent ratings of the top 10 political groups are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[8]:

Date of survey 16-17/4/20 21-22/10/20 7-9/4/21 16-23/9/21 Latest change
Sample size 500 510 530-705 668-712
Response rate 61.6% 65.9% 50.1% 44.1%
Latest findings[9] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
HKCTU 41.3+/-2.6{1} 73.8%
Civic Party 39.4{5}[10] 39.3{4} 38.2{3} 40.5+/-2.4{2} 78.0% +2.3
Democratic Party 42.9{2} 42.5{2} 38.8{2}[10] 40.3+/-2.2{3} 86.1% +1.5
HKASPDMC 39.2+/-2.7{4} 76.9%
FTU 32.0{9} 27.4{10}[10] 33.0{8}[10] 38.3+/-2.4{5} 86.0% +5.3[10]
LSD 39.0{6} 40.7{3} 34.6{7}[10] 38.1+/-2.5{6} 74.8% +3.4
DAB 35.2{8}[10] 27.4{9}[10] 35.4{5}[10] 37.4+/-2.6{7} 90.6% +2.0
Liberal Party 37.7{7} 33.6{7}[10] 35.0{6} 37.2+/-2.0{8} 78.7% +2.1
New People’s Party 29.7{10} 27.8{8} 29.7{9} 35.6+/-2.4{9} 74.7% +5.9[10]
People Power 40.0{4} 42.9{1} 38.2{4}[10] 35.4+/-2.5{10} 76.9% -2.8
ADPL 41.6{3} 36.8[11] 39.6+/-2.3[11] 69.5% +2.8
BPA 29.6[11] 25.3[10] [11] 29.3[10] [11] 30.1+/-2.5[11] 59.4% +0.8
CHRF 40.2{1}
Civic Passion 35.6{6} 28.7{10}[10]
Labour Party 35.8[11] 36.8{5}
Neo Democrats 38.4[11]

[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[11] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

Our latest survey shows that the five most popularly supported political groups are HKCTU, Civic Party, Democratic Party, HKASPDMC and FTU, attaining 41.3, 40.5, 40.3, 39.2 and 38.3 marks respectively; while LSD, DAB, Liberal Party, New People’s Party and People Power rank the 6th to 10th with 38.1, 37.4, 37.2, 35.6 and 35.4 marks respectively. In addition, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 39.6 and 30.1 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to five months ago, the ratings of FTU and New People’s Party have increased significantly. Their ratings together with that of DAB and BPA have all registered record highs since April 2019. Meanwhile, the rating of HKCTU has also registered a record high since 2015. On the other hand, HKASPDMC re-enters the list in 8 years, however, its rating has registered a new low since records began in 1992, while the rating of People Power has registered a record low since 2017.

It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 10” only includes political groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.

Public Sentiment Index

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.

The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

Latest figure Public Sentiment Index
(PSI): 83.5 (+1.9)
Government Appraisal
(GA): 76.3 (+1.0)
Society Appraisal
(SA): 87.0 (+2.5)

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

Cut-off date 8/7/21 22/7/21 12/8/21 26/8/21 10/9/21 23/9/21 Latest change
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) 77.1 81.1 81.3 80.7 81.6 83.5 +1.9
Government Appraisal (GA) 73.6 75.7 76.1 73.7 75.4 76.3 +1.0
Rating of CE 34.0 34.7 35.1 33.8 35.6 33.9 -1.8
Net approval rate of CE -47% -48% -46% -48% -41% -46% -5%
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG 2.3[12] 2.3 2.3[12] 2.3 2.3[12] 2.4 +0.1
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG 2.6[12] 2.7 2.7[12] 2.6 2.6[12] 2.6 +0.1
Society Appraisal (SA) 78.1[12] 83.3 83.3[12] 84.5 84.5[12] 87.0 +2.5
People’s satisfaction with political condition 2.1[12] 2.3 2.3[12] 2.3 2.3[12] 2.4 +0.1
Weighting index of political condition 0.31 0.31[12] 0.31[12] 0.31[12] 0.31[12] 0.31[12]
People’s satisfaction with economic condition 2.4[12] 2.4 2.4[12] 2.5 2.5[12] 2.4 -0.1
Weighting index of economic condition 0.34 0.34[12] 0.34[12] 0.34[12] 0.34[12] 0.34[12]
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition 2.4[12] 2.4 2.4[12] 2.4 2.4[12] 2.5 +0.1
Weighting index of livelihood condition 0.35 0.35[12] 0.35[12] 0.35[12] 0.35[12] 0.35[12]

[12] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

Score value Percentile Score value Percentile
140-200 Highest 1% 0-60 Lowest 1%
125 Highest 5% 75 Lowest 5%
120 Highest 10% 80 Lowest 10%
110 Highest 25% 90 Lowest 25%
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below

The latest PSI stands at 83.5, up by 1.9 points from early September. It can be considered as among the worst 14% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 1.0 point to 76.3, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 2.5 points to 87.0. They can be considered as among the worst 6% and 19% across the past 20 years or so respectively. All three have registered record highs again since early June 2019.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 9 April, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 23 September, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/9/21 364 members of the Election Committee are elected.
20/9/21 Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers.
15/9/21 Southbound trading in cross-boundary bond markets will soon begin.
10/9/21 The Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is launched.
7/9/21 The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme.
6/9/21 The Central Government releases the development plan of Qianhai.
31/8/21 The government proposes amendments to relax requirements for non-locally trained doctors to practise in Hong Kong.
29/8/21 The government may launch a universal COVID-19 vaccination programme for all residents.
26/8/21 The Legislative Council passes waste-charging bill.
24/8/21 The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security.
23/8/21 Officials from the Central Government explain the 14th five-year plan to Hong Kong government officials.
15/8/21 Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment.
10/8/21 The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved.
31/7/21 The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union.
5/7/21 Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law.
10/6/21 NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”.
4/6/21 Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil.
28/5/21 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly.
27/5/21 The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system.
16/4/21 9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 33.9 marks, with 36% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 46 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 30 percentage points, registering a record high since May 2019, while the net trust value stands at negative 13 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 25, negative 29 and negative 32 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for political condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points, registering a record high since 2011, while the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has also registered a record high since March 2019.

The five most popularly supported political groups are HKCTU, Civic Party, Democratic Party, HKASPDMC and FTU, attaining 41.3, 40.5, 40.3, 39.2 and 38.3 marks respectively; while LSD, DAB, Liberal Party, New People’s Party and People Power rank the 6th to 10th with 38.1, 37.4, 37.2, 35.6 and 35.4 marks respectively. In addition, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 39.6 and 30.1 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to five months ago, the ratings of FTU and New People’s Party have increased significantly. Their ratings together with that of DAB and BPA have all registered record highs since April 2019. Meanwhile, the rating of HKCTU has also registered a record high since 2015. On the other hand, HKASPDMC re-enters the list again in 8 years, however, its rating has registered a new low since records began in 1992, while the rating of People Power has registered a record low since 2017.

As for the PSI, the latest figure is 83.5, up by 1.9 points from early September.

Click to access the login or register cheese