Aug 10, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung – Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Kai-Chi Leung – Part-time Lecturer, School of Journalism and Communication, CUHK
Edward Tai – Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,003 and 1,000 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late June to July. Our survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of Hong Kong, the United States and Mainland China registered negative values. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the governments of the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and the United States, as well as the peoples of the United Kingdom and the United States have increased significantly, while that towards the governments of Japan, Taiwan and Macau have decreased significantly. Looking back at past records, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people and government of Mainland China are at historical highs since 2009 and 2015 respectively, while that towards the people and government of Taiwan are at historical lows since 2011 and 2017 respectively. The effective response rate of the evaluation stage survey is 48.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4% and that of net values is +/-7% at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage | Evaluation stage | ||
| Date of survey | : | 30/6-8/7/2021 | 19-22/7/2021 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,003 (including 503 landline and 500 mobile samples) | 1,000 (including 499 landline and 501 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 46.4% | 48.5% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 governments of countries or regions that they knew best apart from Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau. The top 5 nominees then entered the evaluation survey. In the evaluation survey, respondents were asked to rate their feeling towards the governments and peoples of Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, Macau and the five countries or regions respectively. Hong Kong people’s feelings towards different governments and peoples are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 20-21/1/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 19-22/7/21 | ||
| Sample size[3] | 505 | 655-672 | 821-834 | 659-670 | ||
| Response rate | 71.2% | 60.9% | 67.2% | 48.5% | ||
| Latest findings[4] | Findings | Findings | Findings | Finding & error | Latest change | |
| Hong Kong | People Positive | 57% | 55% | 44%[5] | 51+/-4% | +7%[5] |
| People Negative | 13% | 6%[5] | 10%[5] | 10+/-2% | — | |
| Net value | 44% | 49% | 34%[5] | 41+/-5% | +6% | |
| Government Positive | 13%[5] | 23%[5] | 20% | 30+/-4% | +10%[5] | |
| Government Negative | 74%[5] | 61%[5] | 54%[5] | 50+/-4% | -4% | |
| Net value | -61%[5] | -39%[5] | -34% | -20+/-7% | +13%[5] | |
| Mainland China | People Positive | 30% | 32% | 36% | 40+/-4% | +4% |
| People Negative | 37% | 32% | 22%[5] | 19+/-3% | -3% | |
| Net value | -7% | <1% | 14%[5] | 20+/-6% | +7% | |
| Government Positive | 23% | 27% | 33%[5] | 37+/-4% | +5% | |
| Government Negative | 59%[5] | 52%[5] | 41%[5] | 39+/-4% | -2% | |
| Net value | -36%[5] | -26%[5] | -9%[5] | -2+/-7% | +7% | |
| Taiwan | People Positive | 74% | 68%[5] | 55%[5] | 54+/-4% | -1% |
| People Negative | 4%[5] | 4% | 5% | 6+/-2% | +1% | |
| Net value | 69% | 64% | 50%[5] | 48+/-5% | -2% | |
| Government Positive | 55% | 51% | 42%[5] | 35+/-4% | -7%[5] | |
| Government Negative | 18% | 21% | 23% | 27+/-3% | +5%[5] | |
| Net value | 37% | 31% | 20%[5] | 8+/-6% | -12%[5] | |
| Macau | People Positive | 51%[5] | 50% | 50% | 53+/-4% | +2% |
| People Negative | 9%[5] | 5%[5] | 2%[5] | 4+/-2% | +2%[5] | |
| Net value | 42%[5] | 45% | 48% | 48+/-5% | +1% | |
| Government Positive | 31%[5] | 45%[5] | 53%[5] | 46+/-4% | -7%[5] | |
| Government Negative | 35%[5] | 20%[5] | 8%[5] | 15+/-3% | +7%[5] | |
| Net value | -4%[5] | 25%[5] | 46%[5] | 31+/-6% | -14%[5] | |
[3] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Hong Kong people’s feelings towards some other governments and peoples are summarized as follows, in descending order of net values towards the peoples:
| Date of survey | 20-21/1/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 19-22/7/21 | ||
| Sample size[7] | 505 | 667-700 | 820-827 | 665-671 | ||
| Response rate | 71.2% | 60.9% | 67.2% | 48.5% | ||
| Latest findings[8] | Findings | Findings | Findings | Finding & error | Latest change | |
| Japan | People Positive | 71% | 59%[9] | 52%[9] | 55+/-4% | +3% |
| People Negative | 7%[9] | 6% | 5% | 7+/-2% | +3%[9] | |
| Net value | 64%[9] | 53%[9] | 48% | 48+/-5% | — | |
| Government Positive | 46%[9] | 35%[9] | 30%[9] | 33+/-4% | +2% | |
| Government Negative | 17%[9] | 17% | 15% | 24+/-3% | +10%[9] | |
| Net value | 29%[9] | 18%[9] | 16% | 8+/-6% | -7%[9] | |
| Australia | People Positive | 54% | 43%[9] | 34%[9] | 40+/-4% | +6%[9] |
| People Negative | 4% | 6% | 4% | 6+/-2% | +2% | |
| Net value | 50% | 37%[9] | 30%[9] | 34+/-5% | +4% | |
| Government Positive | 38% | 38% | 30%[9] | 34+/-4% | +4% | |
| Government Negative | 12% | 15% | 16% | 18+/-3% | +3% | |
| Net value | 26% | 22% | 15%[9] | 16+/-5% | +1% | |
| Canada | People Positive | — | — | 34% | 40+/-4% | +5%[9] |
| People Negative | — | — | 4% | 6+/-2% | +2%[9] | |
| Net value | — | — | 30% | 33+/-5% | +3% | |
| Government Positive | — | — | 27% | 34+/-4% | +7%[9] | |
| Government Negative | — | — | 16% | 19+/-3% | +3% | |
| Net value | — | — | 11% | 14+/-6% | +4% | |
| United Kingdom | People Positive | 51%[9] | 42%[9] | 29%[9] | 41+/-4% | +12%[9] |
| People Negative | 6% | 10%[9] | 11% | 12+/-3% | +2% | |
| Net value | 44%[9] | 32%[9] | 19%[9] | 29+/-5% | +10%[9] | |
| Government Positive | 40%[9] | 37% | 24%[9] | 37+/-4% | +12%[9] | |
| Government Negative | 21% | 25% | 28% | 25+/-3% | -3% | |
| Net value | 19%[9] | 12% | -3%[9] | 12+/-6% | +16%[9] | |
| United States | People Positive | 47% | 38%[9] | 21%[9] | 30+/-4% | +8%[9] |
| People Negative | 12% | 14% | 20%[9] | 19+/-3% | — | |
| Net value | 35% | 24%[9] | 2%[9] | 10+/-5% | +9%[9] | |
| Government Positive | 33%[9] | 28% | 14%[9] | 21+/-3% | +7%[9] | |
| Government Negative | 36%[9] | 41%[9] | 44% | 41+/-4% | -3% | |
| Net value | -2%[9] | -13%[9] | -30%[9] | -20+/-6% | +10%[9] | |
[6] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. As regards people’s feeling towards different peoples, from high to low net affinity, the order goes: Macau, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, Mainland China and United States. Regarding people’s feeling towards different governments, from high to low net affinity, the order goes: Macau, Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, Japan, Taiwan, Mainland China, United States and Hong Kong. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of Hong Kong, the United States and Mainland China are negative.
Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the governments of the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and the United States, as well as the peoples of the United Kingdom and the United States have increased significantly, while that towards the governments of Japan, Taiwan and Macau have decreased significantly.
Looking back at past records, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people and government of Mainland China are at historical highs since 2009 and 2015 respectively, while that towards the people and government of Taiwan are at historical lows since 2011 and 2017 respectively.
It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 18 to 22 January, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 July, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 16/7/21 | Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess. |
| 6/7/21 | Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks. |
| 4/7/21 | Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online. |
| 4/7/21 | Consumption voucher scheme opens for registration. |
| 3/7/21 | The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”. |
| 2/7/21 | A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay. |
| 1/7/21 | Xi Jinping delivers a speech at Chinese Communist Party’s 100th anniversary ceremony. |
| 25/6/21 | John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively. |
| 23/6/21 | Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue. |
| 17/6/21 | Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law. |
| 14/6/21 | G7 summit ends and issues communique that mentions China multiple times. |
| 12/6/21 | Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong. |
| 11/6/21 | The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security. |
| 10/6/21 | NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. |
| 4/6/21 | Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil. |
| 30/5/21 | The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination. |
| 28/5/21 | 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly. |
| 25/5/21 | The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees. |
| 15/5/21 | Taiwan confirms 180 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 14/5/21 | The government freezes Jimmy Lai’s personal assets under the national security law. |
| 11/5/21 | The government purchases the broadcasting rights of the Tokyo Olympics for five television stations. |
| 7/5/21 | The government announces that vaccinated person can have shorter quarantine period. |
| 30/4/21 | The government imposes mandatory testing for all foreign domestic helpers in Hong Kong. |
| 23/4/21 | Former member of Hong Kong National Front is jailed for 12 years for possessing explosives. |
| 16/4/21 | 9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly. |
| 15/4/21 | The government holds “National Security Education Day”. |
| 13/4/21 | The government will make law to ban public call to not vote or cast blank or spoilt votes. |
| 10/4/21 | Alibaba is fined RMB 18.2 billion for violating anti-monopoly law. |
| 30/3/21 | NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 25/3/21 | Chinese consumers start a boycott campaign against international brands refusing to use Xinjiang cottons. |
| 19/3/21 | China and US officials meet in Alaska. |
| 11/3/21 | The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 6/3/21 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng attend CPCC joint group meeting about Hong Kong and Macau. |
| 5/3/21 | The fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress begins, Li Keqiang delivers the government work report. |
| 28/2/21 | 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”. |
| 23/2/21 | The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified. |
| 22/2/21 | Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”. |
| 19/2/21 | The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting. |
| 16/2/21 | The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register. |
| 9/2/21 | The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai. |
| 4/2/21 | Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session. |
| 2/2/21 | The government continues to lock down multiple areas for compulsory testing and says officials may break into flats. |
| 29/1/21 | The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports. |
| 27/1/21 | Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing. |
| 20/1/21 | The US President Biden is sworn into office. |
| 20/1/21 | Queen’s Counsel David Perry steps down as prosecutor in an assembly case involving democrats. |
Data Analysis
Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of Hong Kong, the United States and Mainland China registered negative values. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the governments of the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and the United States, as well as the peoples of the United Kingdom and the United States have increased significantly, while that towards the governments of Japan, Taiwan and Macau have decreased significantly.
Looking back at past records, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people and government of Mainland China are at historical highs since 2009 and 2015 respectively, while that towards the people and government of Taiwan are at historical lows since 2011 and 2017 respectively.