POP releases popularities of CE and principal officials (2021-07-13)

Jul 13, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

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Detailed Findings

POP releases popularities of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late June to early July. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.0 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared to half a month ago, as well as a record high since early June 2019, with 37% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 47 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of the newly appointed CS John Lee is 38.0 marks. His net popularity is negative 5 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has significantly increased by 8.0 points from a month ago to 43.5, registering a record high since February 2018. His net popularity has also significantly increased by 19 percentage points to positive 1, registering a record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has significantly increased by 4.0 points to 28.1 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity has also significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 37, registering a record high since April 2019. As for the Directors of Bureaux, 8 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone up. Only those of Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui have not changed beyond sampling errors. That of Frank Chan has registered a record high since July 2018, that of Michael Wong has registered a record high since early June 2019, while those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Erick Tsang have registered record highs since they were appointed in May 2020. The effective response rate of the survey is 46.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey

:

30/6-8/7/2021
Survey method

:

Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population

:

Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1]

:

1,003 (including 503 landline and 500 mobile samples)
Effective response rate

:

46.4%
Sampling error[2]

:

Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.1 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method

:

Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below. [2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

19-22/4/21

3-7/5/21

17-21/5/21

7-10/6/21

21-25/6/21

30/6-8/7/21

Latest change

Sample size

1,004

1,013

1,004

1,008

1,014

1,003

Response rate

54.5%

55.5%

52.5%

55.1%

49.3%

46.4%

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

Rating of CE Carrie Lam

32.0

30.4

30.8

30.3

29.8

34.0+/-2.1

+4.2[3]

Vote of confidence in

CE Carrie Lam

18%

17%

18%

16%

17%

20+/-3%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in

CE Carrie Lam

68%

71%

68%

70%

70%

67+/-3%

-3%

Net approval rate

-50%

-54%

-50%

-53%

-53%

-47+/-5%

+6%

[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

24/2/21
[4]

8-12/3/21

7-9/4/21

3-7/5/21

7-10/6/21

30/6-8/7/21

Latest change

Sample size

859

521-548

556-639

636-700

570-692

590-647

Response rate

61.0%

47.6%

50.1%

55.5%

55.1%

46.4%

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

Rating of CS John Lee

38.0+/-3.1

Vote of confidence in CS John Lee

32+/-4%

Vote of no confidence in CS John Lee

37+/-4%

Net approval rate

-5+/-7%

Rating of FS Paul Chan

36.2

34.7

35.8

35.1

35.4

43.5+/-2.5

+8.0[5]

Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan

27%

26%

29%

24%

25%

32+/-4%

+7%[5]

Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan

51%[5]

47%

39%[5]

42%

43%

32+/-4%

-11%[5]

Net approval rate

-24%

-21%

-10%[5]

-18%

-18%

1+/-7%

+19%[5]

Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng

23.9

22.7

25.0

24.2

28.1+/-2.4

+4.0[5]

Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng

14%

14%

14%

14%

16+/-3%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng

56%

61%

57%

61%

53+/-4%

-8%[5]

Net approval rate

-42%

-47%

-44%

-47%

-37+/-6%

+10%[5]

[4] The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him. [5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system sorted by net approval rates[6] are summarized below:

Date of survey

4-8/1/21

8-12/3/21

3-7/5/21

30/6-8/7/21

Latest change

Sample size

603-628

533-710

614-647

606-626

Response rate

58.5%

47.6%

55.5%

46.4%

Latest findings

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong

21%

21%

18%

24+/-3%

+5%[7]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong

26%

23%

25%

16+/-3%

-9%[7]

Net approval rate

-5%

-2%

-7%

8+/-5%

+15%[7]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

25%

24%

29%[7]

29+/-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing

28%

28%

27%

22+/-3%

-5%[7]

Net approval rate

-3%

-4%

2%

7+/-6%

+5%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit

23%

24%

21%

26+/-4%

+6%[7]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit

33%[7]

28%

25%

20+/-3%

-5%[7]

Net approval rate

-10%

-4%

-5%

6+/-6%

+10%[7]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui

20%

19%

18%

22+/-3%

+5%[7]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui

26%

19%[7]

24%[7]

18+/-3%

-6%[7]

Net approval rate

-7%

1%

-6%

5+/-5%

+11%[7]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau

25%

25%

26%

33+/-4%

+7%[7]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau

39%

35%

35%

30+/-4%

-5%

Net approval rate

-14%

-10%

-9%

3+/-6%

+12%[7]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong

31%

25%[7]

26%

32+/-4%

+7%[7]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong

37%

36%

37%

30+/-4%

-8%[7]

Net approval rate

-6%

-11%

-12%

3+/-6%

+14%[7]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang

43+/-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang

41+/-4%

Net approval rate

2+/-7%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip

23%

25%

24%

32+/-4%

+9%[7]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip

44%

42%

39%

32+/-4%

-7%[7]

Net approval rate

-21%

-17%

-15%

1+/-7%

+16%[7]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang

21%

22%

19%

28+/-4%

+9%[7]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang

40%

37%

41%

30+/-4%

-11%[7]

Net approval rate

-19%

-15%

-22%

-2+/-6%

+21%[7]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan

24%

16%[7]

24%[7]

26+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan

39%

40%

35%

29+/-4%

-6%[7]

Net approval rate

-15%

-24%[7]

-11%[7]

-4+/-6%

+8%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui

19%

21%

21%

22+/-3%

+1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui

31%

29%

30%

26+/-4%

-3%

Net approval rate

-13%

-8%

-9%

-4+/-6%

+4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan

25%[7]

23%

24%

28+/-4%

+4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan

46%[7]

49%

45%

36+/-4%

-8%[7]

Net approval rate

-20%[7]

-26%

-21%

-8+/-6%

+13%[7]

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung

17%

15%

14%

22+/-3%

+8%[7]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung

60%

58%

58%

51+/-4%

-7%[7]

Net approval rate

-42%

-43%

-44%

-29+/-7%

+15%[7]

[6] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered. [7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.0 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared to half a month ago, as well as a record high since early June 2019, with 37% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 47 percentage points. These popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of the newly appointed CS John Lee is 38.0 marks. His approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 37%, giving a net popularity of negative 5 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has significantly increased by 8.0 points from a month ago to 43.5, registering a record high since February 2018. His approval rate and disapproval rate are both at 32%, thus his net popularity has also significantly increased by 19 percentage points to positive 1, registering a record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has significantly increased by 4.0 points to 28.1 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 53%, thus her net popularity has also significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 37, registering a record high since April 2019.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 8 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates, ranked from high to low are Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Security Chris Tang and Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip. The 9th to 13th positions who have got negative net approval rates go to Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone up. Only those of Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui have not changed beyond sampling errors. That of Frank Chan has registered a record high since July 2018, that of Michael Wong has registered a record high since early June 2019, while those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Erick Tsang have registered record highs since they were appointed in May 2020.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Chris Tang, Edward Yau, Paul Chan, Patrick Nip, Law Chi-kwong, John Lee, Wong Kam-sing, Erick Tsang, Sophia Chan and Frank Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong, Christopher Hui and Caspar Tsui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Teresa Cheng and Kevin Yeung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:


“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8]
Nil

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8]
Nil

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8]
Secretary for Security Chris Tang (43%)
Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (33%)
FS Paul Chan (32%)
Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (32%)
Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (32%)
CS John Lee (32%)
Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (29%)
Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (28%)
Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (28%)
Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (26%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates [8]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate
Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (26%, 47%)
Secretary for Development Michael Wong (24%, 40%)
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (22%, 40%)
Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui (22%, 48%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8]
SJ Teresa Cheng (53%)
Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (51%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8]
CE Carrie Lam (67%)
[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 7 May, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 30 June to 8 July, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

8/7/21

Two towers of The Pavilia Farm III will be demolished and rebuilt for failing to meet concrete strength requirement.

6/7/21

Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks.

5/7/21

Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law.

4/7/21

Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online.

4/7/21

Consumption voucher scheme opens for registration.

3/7/21

The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”.

2/7/21

A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay.

1/7/21

Xi Jinping delivers a speech at Chinese Communist Party’s 100th anniversary ceremony.

25/6/21

John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively.

24/6/21

Hong Kong confirms 7 cases of coronavirus disease, all related to coronavirus variant.

23/6/21

Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue.

21/6/21

Hong Kong has not reported new local cases for 14 days. The government will relax anti-epidemic measures.

19/6/21

Two Next Digital senior executives are denied bail and remanded in custody.

17/6/21

Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law.

12/6/21

Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong.

11/6/21

The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security.

10/6/21

NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”.

5/6/21

Hong Kong records an untraceable case involving coronavirus variant.

4/6/21

Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil.

31/5/21

The government plans to restrict unvaccinated persons from entering various premises.

30/5/21

The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.

29/5/21

Expert says the fourth wave of infections has ended.

28/5/21

10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly.

27/5/21

The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system.

25/5/21

The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees.

21/5/21

Some universities and corporations launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.

14/5/21

The government freezes Jimmy Lai’s personal assets under the national security law.

11/5/21

The government purchases the broadcasting rights of the Tokyo Olympics for five television stations.

8/5/21

The Department of Health lays charges against two patients infected with coronavirus variant for withholding information on their whereabouts.

7/5/21

The government announces that vaccinated person can have shorter quarantine period.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.0 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared to half a month ago, as well as a record high since early June 2019, with 37% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 47 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of the newly appointed CS John Lee is 38.0 marks. His net popularity is negative 5 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has significantly increased by 8.0 points from a month ago to 43.5, registering a record high since February 2018. His net popularity has also significantly increased by 19 percentage points to positive 1, registering a record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has significantly increased by 4.0 points to 28.1 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity has also significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 37, registering a record high since April 2019.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 8 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone up. Only those of Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui have not changed beyond sampling errors. That of Frank Chan has registered a record high since July 2018, that of Michael Wong has registered a record high since early June 2019, while those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Erick Tsang have registered record highs since they were appointed in May 2020.

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