HKPOP latest popularity figures of CE and Government, Public Sentiment Index, HKSAR anniversary surveys result (2021-06-29)

Jun 29, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Detailed Findings

POP releases popularity figures of CE and SAR Government,
HKSAR anniversary survey along with PSI

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,014 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late June. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 29.8 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 53 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, net satisfaction has significantly increased by 10 percentage points over the month past to negative 36, while the latest net trust value stands at negative 18 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points. As the 24th handover anniversary of the HKSAR draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has increased significantly by 7 percentage points to 41%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud fell back by 8 percentage points to 55%, representing the most positive survey results since 2010. As for people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong, the figures have also improved significantly. The latest positive appraisal percentage stands at 35%, negative appraisal at 45%, resulting in a net value of negative 10 percentage points. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 75.6, up by 5.6 points from early June. The effective response rate of the survey is 49.3%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 21-25/6/2021
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,014 (including 506 landline and 508 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 49.3%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.0 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and SAR Government

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 7-9/4/21 19-22/4/21 3-7/5/21 17-21/5/21 7-10/6/21 21-25/6/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,003 1,004 1,013 1,004 1,008 1,014
Response rate 50.1% 54.5% 55.5% 52.5% 55.1% 49.3%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 30.7 32.0 30.4 30.8 30.3 29.8+/-2.0 -0.5
Vote of confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
20% 18% 17% 18% 16% 17+/-2% +1%
Vote of no confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
67% 68% 71% 68% 70% 70+/-3%
Net approval rate -47% -50% -54% -50% -53% -53+/-5% +1%
[3]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 18-22/1/21 24-26/2/21 22-25/3/21 19-22/4/21 17-21/5/21 21-25/6/21 Latest change
Sample size 510-600 519 570-630 548-613 566-646 544-583
Response rate 67.2% 57.2% 56.8% 54.5% 52.5% 49.3%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] 16% 23%[5] 21% 19% 17% 24+/-4% +7%[5]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] 61% 56% 62%[5] 59% 63% 60+/-4% -3%
Net satisfaction rate -45% -33%[5] -42% -40% -46% -36+/-7% +10%[5]
Mean value[4] 2.1 2.3[5] 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3+/-0.1 +0.2[5]
Trust in HKSAR Government[4] 28% 36%[5] 32% 32% 31% 34+/-4% +2%
Distrust in HKSAR Government[4] 51% 50% 53% 52% 54% 52+/-4% -2%
Net trust -23% -14% -21% -20% -22% -18+/-8% +4%
Mean value[4] 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6+/-0.1 +0.1
[4]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[5]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 18-22/1/21 24-26/2/21 22-25/3/21 19-22/4/21 17-21/5/21 21-25/6/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,011 1,000 1,010 1,004 1,004 1,014
Response rate 67.2% 57.2% 56.8% 54.5% 52.5% 49.3%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[6]
15% 19%[7] 17% 15% 18% 19+/-2% +2%
Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[6]
62% 62% 65% 64% 62% 56+/-3% -6%[7]
Net satisfaction rate -47% -43% -48% -49% -44% -36+/-5% +8%[7]
Mean value[6] 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4+/-0.1 +0.2[7]
Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[6]
13% 12% 12% 14% 17%[7] 18+/-2%
Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[6]
67% 68% 66% 63% 60% 56+/-3% -4%[7]
Net satisfaction rate -54% -56% -54% -49% -43% -38+/-5% +5%
Mean value[6] 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2[7] 2.3 2.4+/-0.1 +0.1[7]
Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[6]
15% 18% 21% 20% 20% 20+/-3%
Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[6]
63% 61% 61% 60% 61% 61+/-3% +1%
Net satisfaction rate -47% -42% -41% -39% -40% -41+/-5% -1%
Mean value[6] 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1+/-0.1
[6]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[7]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 29.8 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 70%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate has significantly increased by 7 percentage points to 24% compared to a month ago, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 60%, thus the net satisfaction has significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 36. The mean score has also significantly increased by 0.2 point to 2.3, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 34% of the respondents expressed trust, 52% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 18 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general.

As for people’s satisfaction with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 19%, 18% and 20% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. The mean scores are between 2.1 and 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points.

HKSAR Anniversary Survey

The results of the HKSAR anniversary survey are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey 19-22/6/17 14-21/6/18 17-20/6/19 15-18/6/20 21-25/6/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,007 1,000 1,015 1,002 1,014
Response rate 71.2% 59.6% 58.7% 54.1% 49.3%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Proud of becoming a national citizen of China 34% 38%[9] 27%[9] 34%[9] 41+/-3% +7%[9]
Not proud of becoming a national citizen of China 62% 57%[9] 71%[9] 62%[9] 55+/-3% -8%[9]
Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: positive appraisal[8] 35%[9] 36% 23%[9] 28%[9] 35+/-3% +6%[9]
Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: negative appraisal[8] 36% 38% 53%[9] 50% 45+/-3% -5%[9]
Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: net appraisal[8] -2%[9] -2% -30%[9] -21%[9] -10+/-6% +11%[9]
Mean value[8] 2.9[9] 2.9 2.5[9] 2.6 2.8+/-0.1 +0.2[9]
[8]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[9]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

As the 24th handover anniversary of the HKSAR draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has increased significantly by 7 percentage points to 41%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud fell back by 8 percentage points to 55%, representing the most positive survey results since 2010. As for the policies of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 35% of the respondents gave positive feedback, whereas 45% gave negative appraisal, giving a net appraisal of negative 10 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8 marks, meaning close to “half-half” in general. These figures have also turned more positive compared to this time last year.

Public Sentiment Index

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.

The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

Latest figure Public Sentiment Index
(PSI): 75.6 (+5.6)
Government Appraisal
(GA): 70.9 (+2.8)
Society Appraisal
(SA): 78.3 (+7.2)

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

Cut-off date 9/4/21 22/4/21 7/5/21 21/5/21 10/6/21 25/6/21 Latest change
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) 69.0 71.3 70.6 70.4 70.0 75.6 +5.6
Government Appraisal (GA) 69.8 70.7 69.4 68.7 68.1 70.9 +2.8
Rating of CE 30.7 32.0 30.4 30.8 30.3 29.8 -0.5
Net approval rate of CE -47% -50% -54% -50% -53% -53% +1%
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG 2.2[10] 2.2 2.2[10] 2.1 2.1[10] 2.3 +0.2
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG 2.5[10] 2.5 2.5[10] 2.5 2.5[10] 2.6 +0.1
Society Appraisal (SA) 67.5[10] 70.8 70.8[10] 71.1 71.1[10] 78.3 +7.2
People’s satisfaction with political condition 2.1[10] 2.2 2.2[10] 2.1 2.1[10] 2.1
Weighting index of political condition 0.32[10] 0.32[10] 0.32[10] 0.32[10] 0.32[10] 0.32[10]
People’s satisfaction with economic condition 2.1[10] 2.2 2.2[10] 2.3 2.3[10] 2.4 +0.1
Weighting index of economic condition 0.33[10] 0.33[10] 0.33[10] 0.33[10] 0.33[10] 0.33[10]
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition 2.2[10] 2.2 2.2[10] 2.2 2.2[10] 2.4 +0.2
Weighting index of livelihood condition 0.35[10] 0.35[10] 0.35[10] 0.35[10] 0.35[10] 0.35[10]
[10]POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

Score value Percentile Score value Percentile
140-200 Highest 1% 0-60 Lowest 1%
125 Highest 5% 75 Lowest 5%
120 Highest 10% 80 Lowest 10%
110 Highest 25% 90 Lowest 25%
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below

The latest PSI stands at 75.6, up by 5.6 points from early June. It can be considered as among the worst 5% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 2.8 points to 70.9, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 7.2 points to 78.3. They can be considered as among the worst 3% and 7% across the past 20 years or so respectively.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 21 May, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 25 June, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/6/21 John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively.
24/6/21 Hong Kong confirms 7 cases of coronavirus disease, all related to coronavirus variant.
23/6/21 Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue.
22/6/21 Apple Daily stops updating several pages.
21/6/21 Next Digital may suspend publication if the request of unfreezing assets is not approved.
21/6/21 Hong Kong has not reported new local cases for 14 days. The government will relax anti-epidemic measures.
19/6/21 Two Next Digital senior executives are denied bail and remanded in custody.
18/6/21 The government announces the disbursement arrangement of electronic consumption vouchers.
17/6/21 Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law.
14/6/21 G7 summit ends and issues communique that mentions China multiple times.
12/6/21 Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong.
11/6/21 The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security.
10/6/21 NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”.
5/6/21 Hong Kong records an untraceable case involving coronavirus variant.
4/6/21 Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil.
31/5/21 The government plans to restrict unvaccinated persons from entering various premises.
30/5/21 The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.
28/5/21 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly.
27/5/21 The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system.
25/5/21 The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees.
21/5/21 Some universities and corporations launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.
20/5/21 Hong Kong reports no untraceable local cases for 27 consecutive days.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 29.8 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 53 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, net satisfaction has significantly increased by 10 percentage points over the month past to negative 36, while the latest net trust value stands at negative 18 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points.

As the 24th handover anniversary of the HKSAR draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has increased significantly by 7 percentage points to 41%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud fell back by 8 percentage points to 55%, representing the most positive survey results since 2010. As for people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong, the figures have also improved significantly. The latest positive appraisal percentage stands at 35%, negative appraisal at 45%, resulting in a net value of negative 10 percentage points.

As for the PSI, the latest figure is 75.6, up by 5.6 points from early June.

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