POP releases five core social indicators (2021-05-18)

May 18, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

POP releases five core social indicators

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,013 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early May. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest continue to be “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.56, 4.42, 4.41, 4.01 and 3.56 respectively. Among them, “stability”, “prosperity” and “rule of law” indicators have dropped significantly, down by 0.33 to 0.39, when compared to a month ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 55.5%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-0.27 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 3-7/5/2021
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,013 (including 506 landline and 507 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 55.5%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.27 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.
  • This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
  • All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:

Date of survey 4-8/1/21 2-5/2/21 8-12/3/21 7-9/4/21 3-7/5/2021 Latest change
Sample size 594-604 650-657 534-654 597-605 605-610
Response rate 58.5% 62.9% 47.6% 50.1% 55.5%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Degree of freedom 4.45 5.02[3] 4.70 4.77 4.56+/-0.27 -0.20
Degree of stability 4.04 4.99[3] 4.26[3] 4.76[3] 4.42+/-0.24 -0.35[3]
Degree of prosperity 4.09 4.96[3] 4.26[3] 4.73[3] 4.41+/-0.20 -0.33[3]
Compliance with the rule of law 3.80 4.50[3] 3.92[3] 4.40[3] 4.01+/-0.26 -0.39[3]
Degree of democracy 3.56 4.27[3] 3.59[3] 3.68 3.56+/-0.27 -0.12
  • The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest continue to be “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.56, 4.42, 4.41, 4.01 and 3.56 respectively. Among them, “stability”, “prosperity” and “rule of law” indicators have dropped significantly, down by 0.33 to 0.39, when compared to a month ago.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 9 April, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 7 May, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

7/5/21 The government announces that vaccinated person can have shorter quarantine period.
5/5/21 Seven cases involving coronavirus variant are confirmed to be related.
4/5/21 Residents of Block R of Allway Gardens are put into quarantine centre for 21 days.
3/5/21 Residents of Beauty Mansion in Tsim Sha Tsui are put into quarantine centre for 21 days.
2/5/21 The government plans to require foreign domestic helpers to be vaccinated to come to Hong Kong or renew contracts.
1/5/21 Virus genome sequencing shows coronavirus variant has spread in the community.
29/4/21 Hong Kong records the first untraceable case involving coronavirus variant.
27/4/21 The government relaxes some anti-epidemic measures with “vaccine bubble” as the basis.
26/4/21 The governments of Hong Kong and Singapore announce that Air Travel Bubble arrangement will begin on May 26.
23/4/21 Former member of Hong Kong National Front is jailed for 12 years for possessing explosives.
17/4/21 Coronavirus variant is found in the Hong Kong community for the first time.
16/4/21 9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly.
15/4/21 The government holds “National Security Education Day”.
13/4/21 The government will make law to ban public call to not vote or cast blank or spoilt votes.
11/4/21 Four stored value facilities will assist in the distribution of electronic consumption vouchers.

Data Analysis

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest continue to be “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.56, 4.42, 4.41, 4.01 and 3.56 respectively. Among them, “stability”, “prosperity” and “rule of law” indicators have dropped significantly, down by 0.33 to 0.39, when compared to a month ago.

Detailed Findings

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