POP releases popularities of CE and SAR Government, people’s appraisal of policy areas of the government along with PSI (2021-04-27)

April 27, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Detailed Findings

POP releases popularities of CE and SAR Government,
people’s appraisal of policy areas of the government along with PSI

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late April. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 32.0 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the net satisfaction stands at negative 40 percentage points and net trust value at negative 20 percentage points. Both figures have not changed much from last month. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 39, negative 49 and negative 49 percentage points respectively. All figures above remain more or less the same as last month, but the net satisfaction rate with the political condition has registered a new high since December 2018. Meanwhile, the latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative where the net satisfactions of the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government, protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and improving people’s livelihood are negative 13, negative 25, negative 37, negative 38 and negative 46 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half a year ago. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 71.3, up by 2.3 points from early April. The effective response rate of the survey is 54.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	19-22/4/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1]	:	1,004 (including 498 landline and 506 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	54.5%
Sampling error[2]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below. [2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and SAR Government

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-5/2/21	24-26/2/21	8-12/3/21	22-25/3/21	7-9/4/21	19-22/4/21	Latest change
Sample size	1,018	1,000	1,001	1,010	1,003	1,004	—
Response rate	62.9%	57.2%	47.6%	56.8%	50.1%	54.5%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Rating of CE Carrie Lam	31.0	33.9	29.5[3]	32.8[3]	30.7	32.0+/-2.1	+1.3
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam	18%	23%[3]	18%[3]	19%	20%	18+/-2%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam	70%	67%	72%[3]	68%	67%	68+/-3%	—
Net approval rate	-52%	-43%[3]	-54%[3]	-50%	-47%	-50+/-5%	-3%

[3]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	23-26/11/20	18-22/12/20	18-22/1/21	24-26/2/21	22-25/3/21	19-22/4/21	Latest change
Sample size	518-529	558-623	510-600	519	570-630	548-613	—
Response rate	74.6%	68.7%	67.2%	57.2%	56.8%	54.5%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[4]	19%	17%	16%	23%[5]	21%	19+/-3%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[4]	62%[5]	60%	61%	56%	62%[5]	59+/-4%	-3%
Net satisfaction rate	-43%	-43%	-45%	-33%[5]	-42%	-40+/-6%	+1%
Mean value[4]	2.1[5]	2.1	2.1	2.3[5]	2.2	2.2+/-0.1	—
Trust in HKSAR Government[4]	30%	29%	28%	36%[5]	32%	32+/-4%	—
Distrust in HKSAR Government[4]	49%[5]	56%[5]	51%	50%	53%	52+/-4%	-1%
Net trust	-20%[5]	-27%	-23%	-14%	-21%	-20+/-8%	+1%
Mean value[4]	2.5[5]	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.5	2.5+/-0.1	—

[4]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. [5]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	23-26/11/20	18-22/12/20	18-22/1/21	24-26/2/21	22-25/3/21	19-22/4/21	Latest change
Sample size	1,085	1,014	1,011	1,000	1,010	1,004	—
Response rate	74.6%	68.7%	67.2%	57.2%	56.8%	54.5%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[6]	15%[7]	16%	15%	18%	21%	20+/-3%	-1%
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6]	66%[7]	65%	63%	61%	61%	60+/-3%	-2%
Net satisfaction rate	-50%[7]	-50%	-47%	-42%	-41%	-39+/-5%	+1%
Mean value[6]	2.0[7]	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.2+/-0.1	—
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[6]	15%	14%	15%	19%[7]	17%	15+/-2%	-2%
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6]	61%[7]	65%	62%	62%	65%	64+/-3%	-1%
Net satisfaction rate	-46%[7]	-51%	-47%	-43%	-48%	-49+/-5%	-1%
Mean value[6]	2.2[7]	2.1	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2+/-0.1	—
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[6]	10%	10%	13%	12%	12%	14+/-2%	+1%
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6]	64%[7]	68%[7]	67%	68%	66%	63+/-3%	-3%
Net satisfaction rate	-53%[7]	-59%	-54%	-56%	-54%	-49+/-5%	+5%
Mean value[6]	2.1[7]	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.2+/-0.1	+0.1[7]

[6]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. [7]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 32.0 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 19%, whereas 59% feel dissatisfied, thus the net satisfaction stands at negative 40 percentage points. The mean score is 2.2, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 32% of the respondents expressed trust, 52% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 20 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general. All figures have not changed much from last month.

As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 20%, 15% and 14% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 39, negative 49 and negative 49 percentage points respectively. Three mean scores are 2.2, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Except the mean value of economic condition has significantly increased by 0.1, all other figures above remain more or less the same as last month, but the net satisfaction rate with the political condition has registered a new high since December 2018.

People’s Appraisal of Policy Areas of the Government

Recent figures on people’s appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows, in descending order of net satisfaction rates:

Date of survey	17-20/12/18	24-28/10/19	14-17/4/20	23-26/11/20	19-22/4/21	Latest change
Sample size[8]	512-540	519	582-617	516-523	597-606	—
Response rate	60.6%	68.3%	64.5%	74.6%	54.5%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate[9]	56%	17%[10]	23%[10]	33%[10]	31+/-4%	-2%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate[9]	26%[10]	60%[10]	59%	49%[10]	44+/-4%	-5%
Net satisfaction rate	31%[10]	-43%[10]	-36%	-16%[10]	-13+/-7%	+3%
Mean value[9]	3.4[10]	2.1[10]	2.2	2.6[10]	2.6+/-0.1	—
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate[9]	35%	22%[10]	24%	31%[10]	29+/-4%	-2%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate[9]	46%	67%[10]	63%	52%[10]	54+/-4%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	-11%	-45%[10]	-39%	-21%[10]	-25+/-7%	-4%
Mean value[9]	2.7	2.0[10]	2.2	2.4[10]	2.4+/-0.1	—
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate[9]	48%	14%[10]	24%[10]	19%[10]	19+/-3%	+1%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate[9]	31%	68%[10]	59%[10]	56%	57+/-4%	+1%
Net satisfaction rate	17%	-54%[10]	-35%[10]	-37%	-37+/-7%	—
Mean value[9]	3.1	2.0[10]	2.4[10]	2.3	2.3+/-0.1	—
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate[9]	34%	15%[10]	21%[10]	21%	21+/-3%	—
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate[9]	50%	70%[10]	64%[10]	60%	59+/-4%	-1%
Net satisfaction rate	-16%	-55%[10]	-43%[10]	-39%	-38+/-6%	+1%
Mean value[9]	2.6	1.9[10]	2.1[10]	2.1	2.2+/-0.1	—
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate[9]	33%	15%[10]	23%[10]	18%[10]	16+/-3%	-2%
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate[9]	46%	72%[10]	62%[10]	59%	62+/-4%	+4%
Net satisfaction rate	-13%	-57%[10]	-39%[10]	-41%	-46+/-6%	-6%
Mean value[9]	2.7	1.9[10]	2.3[10]	2.2	2.2+/-0.1	—

[8]Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead. [9]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. [10]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative. The net satisfaction rates of the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government, protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and improving people’s livelihood are negative 13, negative 25, negative 37, negative 38 and negative 46 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half year ago. The mean values of these five specific policy areas range from 2.1 to 2.6, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general.

Public Sentiment Index

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.

The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

Latest figure	Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 71.3 (+2.3)	Government Appraisal (GA): 70.7 (+0.9)	Society Appraisal (SA): 70.8 (+3.3)

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

Cut-off date	5/2/21	26/2/21	12/3/21	25/3/21	9/4/21	22/4/21	Latest change
Public Sentiment Index (PSI)	67.6	71.7	69.9	69.4	69.0	71.3	+2.3
Government Appraisal (GA)	69.4	74.9	71.6	70.6	69.8	70.7	+0.9
Rating of CE	31.0	33.9	29.5	32.8	30.7	32.0	+1.3
Net approval rate of CE	-52%	-43%	-54%	-50%	-47%	-50%	-3%
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG	2.1[11]	2.3	2.3[11]	2.2	2.2[11]	2.2	—
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG	2.5[11]	2.6	2.6[11]	2.5	2.5[11]	2.5	—
Society Appraisal (SA)	65.4[11]	67.2	67.2[11]	67.5	67.5[11]	70.8	+3.3
People’s satisfaction with political condition	2.1[11]	2.1	2.1[11]	2.1	2.1[11]	2.2	—
Weighting index of political condition	0.32[11]	0.32[11]	0.32[11]	0.3211]	0.32[11]	0.32[11]	—
People’s satisfaction with economic condition	2.1[11]	2.1	2.1[11]	2.1	2.1[11]	2.2	+0.1
Weighting index of economic condition	0.33[11]	0.33[11]	0.33[11]	0.3311]	0.33[11]	0.33[11]	—
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition	2.2[11]	2.2	2.2[11]	2.2	2.2[11]	2.2	—
Weighting index of livelihood condition	0.35[11]	0.35[11]	0.35[11]	0.3511]	0.35[11]	0.35[11]	—

[11]POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

Score value	Percentile	Score value	Percentile
140-200	Highest 1%	0-60	Lowest 1%
125	Highest 5%	75	Lowest 5%
120	Highest 10%	80	Lowest 10%
110	Highest 25%	90	Lowest 25%
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below

The latest PSI stands at 71.3, increased by 2.3 points from early April. It can be considered as among the worst 3% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 0.9 point to 70.7, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 3.3 points to 70.8. They can both be considered as among the worst 3% across the past 20 years or so.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 23 to 26 November, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 April, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

17/4/21	Coronavirus variant is found in the Hong Kong community for the first time.
16/4/21	9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly.
15/4/21	The government holds “National Security Education Day”.
13/4/21	The government will make law to ban public call to not vote or cast blank or spoilt votes.
12/4/21	The government announces it will adjust social distancing measures with “vaccine bubble” as the basis.
11/4/21	Four stored value facilities will assist in the distribution of electronic consumption vouchers.
2/4/21	The Department of Health urges taking preventive measures during gatherings in the long weekend.
30/3/21	NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system.
29/3/21	The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures.
27/3/21	First day of zero confirmed cases since 2021.
24/3/21	The government halts BioNTech vaccination because of packaging defects.
17/3/21	The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office hold seminars on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system.
15/3/21	The government expands COVID-19 vaccination priority groups’ coverage.
13/3/21	The government locks down multiple buildings in the Mid-Levels for compulsory testing.
11/3/21	The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system.
8/3/21	A male of age 71 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine.
6/3/21	A female of age 55 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine.
3/3/21	Expert committee finds no link between Sinovac vaccine and the death of the male aged 63.
2/3/21	A male of age 63 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine.
1/3/21	The court reviews 47 democrats’ bail application overnight.
28/2/21	47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”.
24/2/21	Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.
23/2/21	The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified.
19/2/21	The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting.
18/2/21	Sinovac vaccines arrive in Hong Kong. The government announces the vaccination plan.
16/2/21	The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register.
9/2/21	The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai.
4/2/21	Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session.
2/2/21	The government continues to lock down multiple areas for compulsory testing and says officials may break into flats.
1/2/21	The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns.
29/1/21	The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports.
28/1/21	The government locks down Tung Fat Building in North Point for compulsory testing.
27/1/21	Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing.
26/1/21	The government locks down areas around Pitt Street for compulsory testing.
24/1/21	Lockdown in Jordan ends with 13 cases found in over 7,000 people.
23/1/21	The government locks down designated areas in Jordan for compulsory testing.
22/1/21	Sources say the government will lock down designated areas in Yau Ma Tei.
20/1/21	Queen’s Counsel David Perry steps down as prosecutor in an assembly case involving democrats.
18/1/21	Ocean Park announces its reform plan.
15/1/21	Mandatory testing is ordered for residents of 20 buildings in Yau Ma Tei.
6/1/21	Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law.
5/1/21	Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform.
4/1/21	The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays.
31/12/20	The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody.
30/12/20	Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong.
28/12/20	Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building.
26/12/20	Coronavirus outbreak occurs in United Christian Hospital.
25/12/20	Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles.
23/12/20	The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take.
17/12/20	The government launches the fourth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund.
12/12/20	Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”.
11/12/20	The government has made procurement deals on COVID-19 vaccine and expects arrival and vaccination in January the earliest.
8/12/20	The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing.
2/12/20	Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison.
30/11/20	The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations.
26/11/20	The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies.
25/11/20	Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address.

Data Analysis

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 32.0 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the net satisfaction stands at negative 40 percentage points and net trust value at negative 20 percentage points. Both figures have not changed much from last month. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 39, negative 49 and negative 49 percentage points respectively. All figures above remain more or less the same as last month, but the net satisfaction rate with the political condition has registered a new high since December 2018.

The latest net satisfaction rates of all five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are negative where the net satisfactions of the government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government, protecting human rights and freedom, maintaining economic prosperity, its pace of democratic development and improving people’s livelihood are negative 13, negative 25, negative 37, negative 38 and negative 46 percentage points respectively. All these figures have not changed much from half a year ago.

As for the PSI, the latest figure is 71.3, up by 2.3 points from early April.

Detailed Findings