POP releases popularity of political groups (2021-04-20)

April 20, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

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Detailed Findings

POP releases popularity of political groups

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,010 and 1,003 Hong Kong residents respectively by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in late March to early April. The latest survey shows that CHRF tops the list and becomes the most popularly supported political group, attaining 40.2 marks. Democratic Party, Civic Party, People Power, DAB and Liberal Party rank the 2nd to 6th with 38.8, 38.2, 38.2, 35.4 and 35.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to LSD, FTU, New People’s Party and Civic Passion which attain 34.6, 33.0, 29.7 and 28.7 marks respectively. In this latest survey, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 36.8 and 29.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of Democratic Party, People Power, LSD and Civic Passion have dropped significantly, whereas, the ratings of DAB, FTU and BPA have increased significantly. The ratings of CHRF, Democratic Party, Civic Party and ADPL register record lows since they were first rated in 2005, 1994, 2006 and 1991 respectively. Meanwhile, the ratings for LSD and Civic Passion register record lows since 2017. The effective response rates of the surveys are 56.8% and 50.1% respectively. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.0 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Naming stage Rating stage
Date of survey : 22-25/3/2021 7-9/4/2021
Sample size[1] : 1,010 (including 507 landline and 503 mobile samples) 1,003 (including 508 landline and 495 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 56.8% 50.1%
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.0 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figues

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party, Civic Party, Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Liberal Party, New People’s Party, League of Social Democrats (LSD), People Power, Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA), Civic Passion, Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood (ADPL) were the top 12 political groups mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political groups using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 political groups. Recent ratings of the top 10 political groups are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:

Date of survey 3-4/9/19 16-17/4/20 21-22/10/20 7-9/4/21 Latest change
Sample size[4] 536 500 510 530-705
Response rate 69.9% 61.6% 65.9% 50.1%
Latest findings[5] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
CHRF 51.2{1} 40.2+/-3.0{1} 69.3%
Democratic Party 44.6{4} 42.9{2} 42.5{2} 38.8+/-2.3{2} 93.0% -3.7[6]
Civic Party 45.1{3} 39.4{5}[6] 39.3{4} 38.2+/-2.5{3} 80.9% -1.0
People Power 42.5{5}[6] 40.0{4} 42.9{1} 38.2+/-2.5{4} 79.9% -4.7[6]
DAB 26.8{10}[6] 35.2{8}[6] 27.4{9}[6] 35.4+/-2.9{5} 90.4% +8.0[6]
Liberal Party 37.6{7}[6] 37.7{7} 33.6{7}[6] 35.0+/-2.1{6} 81.5% +1.4
LSD 39.5{6} 39.0{6} 40.7{3} 34.6+/-2.6{7} 76.8% -6.1[6]
FTU 28.5{9}[6] 32.0{9} 27.4{10}[6] 33.0+/-2.6{8} 88.9% +5.6[6]
New People’s Party 28.8{8}[6] 29.7{10} 27.8{8} 29.7+/-2.6{9} 77.7% +2.0
Civic Passion 35.6{6} 28.7+/-2.5{10} 74.5% -6.9[6]
ADPL 41.6{3} 36.8+/-2.6[7] 68.8%
BPA 29.6[7] 25.3[6] [7] 29.3+/-2.9[7] 66.6% +4.0[6]
Labour Party 37.9[6] [7] 35.8[7] 36.8{5}
Neo Democrats 38.4[7]
HKCTU 38.6[7]
[3]If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[4]Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[5]Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[6]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[7]Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

The latest survey shows that CHRF tops the list and becomes the most popularly supported political group, attaining 40.2 marks. Democratic Party, Civic Party, People Power, DAB and Liberal Party rank the 2nd to 6th with 38.8, 38.2, 38.2, 35.4 and 35.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to LSD, FTU, New People’s Party and Civic Passion which attain 34.6, 33.0, 29.7 and 28.7 marks respectively. In this latest survey, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 36.8 and 29.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of Democratic Party, People Power, LSD and Civic Passion have dropped significantly, whereas, the ratings of DAB, FTU and BPA have increased significantly. The ratings of CHRF, Democratic Party, Civic Party and ADPL register record lows since they were first rated in 2005, 1994, 2006 and 1991 respectively. Meanwhile, the ratings for LSD and Civic Passion register record lows since 2017.

It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 10” only includes political groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 21 to 22 October, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 9 April, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

30/3/21 NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system.
24/3/21 The government halts BioNTech vaccination because of packaging defects.
1/3/21 The court reviews 47 democrats’ bail application overnight.
28/2/21 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”.
25/2/21 The government will distribute e-vouchers for spending worth $5,000 in batches.
24/2/21 Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.
23/2/21 The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified.
22/2/21 Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”.
19/2/21 The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting.
18/2/21 Sinovac vaccines arrive in Hong Kong. The government announces the vaccination plan.
16/2/21 The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register.
9/2/21 The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai.
4/2/21 Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session.
2/2/21 The government continues to lock down multiple areas for compulsory testing and says officials may break into flats.
1/2/21 The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns.
29/1/21 The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports.
24/1/21 Lockdown in Jordan ends with 13 cases found in over 7,000 people.
20/1/21 Queen’s Counsel David Perry steps down as prosecutor in an assembly case involving democrats.
6/1/21 Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law.
5/1/21 Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform.
4/1/21 The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays.
2/1/21 The government does not rule out mandatory use of the “LeaveHomeSafe” app.
31/12/20 The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody.
30/12/20 Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong.
28/12/20 Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building.
25/12/20 Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles.
23/12/20 The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take.
12/12/20 Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”.
8/12/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing.
3/12/20 Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody.
2/12/20 Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison.
30/11/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations.
26/11/20 The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies.
25/11/20 Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address.
24/11/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”.
21/11/20 Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession.
19/11/20 The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights.
14/11/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing.
11/11/20 NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo.
1/11/20 Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance.
31/10/20 Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that CHRF tops the list and becomes the most popularly supported political group, attaining 40.2 marks. Democratic Party, Civic Party, People Power, DAB and Liberal Party rank the 2nd to 6th with 38.8, 38.2, 38.2, 35.4 and 35.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to LSD, FTU, New People’s Party and Civic Passion which attain 34.6, 33.0, 29.7 and 28.7 marks respectively. In this latest survey, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 36.8 and 29.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of Democratic Party, People Power, LSD and Civic Passion have dropped significantly, whereas, the ratings of DAB, FTU and BPA have increased significantly. The ratings of CHRF, Democratic Party, Civic Party and ADPL register record lows since they were first rated in 2005, 1994, 2006 and 1991 respectively. Meanwhile, the ratings for LSD and Civic Passion register record lows since 2017.

 

Detailed Findings

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