POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments along with five core social indicators (2021-04-13)

April 13, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Detailed Findings

POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments
along with five core social indicators

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early April. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.7 marks, with 41% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity is negative 47 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 32.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 20 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.8 marks and his net popularity is negative 10 percentage points, registering a significant increase of 11 percentage points from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 22.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 47 percentage points. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest continue to be “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.77, 4.76, 4.73, 4.40 and 3.68 respectively. Compared with a month ago, “stability”, “prosperity” and “rule of law” indicators have rebounded significantly, up by 0.47 to 0.50. The effective response rate of the survey is 50.1%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.6 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 7-9/4/2021
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,003 (including 508 landline and 495 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 50.1%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.6 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and Secretaries of Departments

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 18-22/1/21 2-5/2/21 24-26/2/21 8-12/3/21 22-25/3/21 7-9/4/21 Latest change
Sample size 1,011 1,018 1,000 1,001 1,010 1,003
Response rate 67.2% 62.9% 57.2% 47.6% 56.8% 50.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 32.0[3] 31.0 33.9 29.5[3] 32.8[3] 30.7+/-2.1 -2.1
Vote of confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
21% 18% 23%[3] 18%[3] 19% 20+/-3% +2%
Vote of no confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
69% 70% 67% 72%[3] 68% 67+/-3% -1%
Net approval rate -49% -52% -43%[3] -54%[3] -50% -47+/-5% +3%
[3]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 7-10/12/20 4-8/1/21 2-5/2/21 24/2/21[4] 8-12/3/21 7-9/4/21 Latest change
Sample size 574-657 600-664 529-582 859 521-548 556-639
Response rate 70.0% 58.5% 62.9% 61.0% 47.6% 50.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 29.2 30.7 31.2 32.7 32.6+/-2.4 -0.1
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
17% 18% 16% 19% 22+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
51% 48% 47% 44% 43+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -34% -29% -31% -25% -20+/-6% +4%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 35.4[5] 33.6 35.2 36.2 34.7 35.8+/-2.6 +1.1
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 24% 27% 23% 27% 26% 29+/-4% +3%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 44%[5] 42% 44% 51%[5] 47% 39+/-4% -8%[5]
Net approval rate -20%[5] -14% -21% -24% -21% -10+/-7% +11%[5]
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 23.3 23.1 23.8 23.9 22.7+/-2.3 -1.2
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 14% 14% 11% 14% 14+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 63% 66% 61% 56% 61+/-4% +5%
Net approval rate -49% -52% -50% -42% -47+/-6% -5%
[4]The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[5]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.7 marks, with 41% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 47 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 32.6 marks. His approval rate is 22%, disapproval rate 43%, giving a net popularity of negative 20 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.8 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 39%, thus a net popularity of negative 10 percentage points, registering a significant increase of 11 percentage points from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 22.7 marks, approval rate 14%, disapproval rate 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 47 percentage points.

Core Social Indicators

Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:

Date of survey 7-10/12/20 4-8/1/21 2-5/2/21 8-12/3/21 7-9/4/21 Latest change
Sample size 602-609 594-604 650-657 534-654 597-605
Response rate 70.0% 58.5% 62.9% 47.6% 50.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Degree of freedom 4.68 4.45 5.02[6] 4.70 4.77+/-0.26 +0.07
Degree of stability 4.17 4.04 4.99[6] 4.26[6] 4.76+/-0.24 +0.50[6]
Degree of prosperity 4.11[6] 4.09 4.96[6] 4.26[6] 4.73+/-0.20 +0.47[6]
Compliance with the rule of law 4.01 3.80 4.50[6] 3.92[6] 4.40+/-0.26 +0.48[6]
Degree of democracy 3.85 3.56 4.27[6] 3.59[6] 3.68+/-0.27 +0.09
[6]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest continue to be “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.77, 4.76, 4.73, 4.40 and 3.68 respectively. Compared with a month ago, “stability”, “prosperity” and “rule of law” indicators have rebounded significantly, up by 0.47 to 0.50.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 8 to 12 March, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 9 April, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

2/4/21 The Department of Health urges taking preventive measures during gatherings in the long weekend.
30/3/21 NPCSC passes amendments to the Basic Law to amend Hong Kong’s electoral system.
29/3/21 The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures.
27/3/21 First day of zero confirmed cases since 2021.
25/3/21 Chinese consumers start a boycott campaign against international brands refusing to use Xinjiang cottons.
24/3/21 The government halts BioNTech vaccination because of packaging defects.
20/3/21 China-US meeting concludes in Alaska.
19/3/21 China and US officials meet in Alaska.
17/3/21 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office hold seminars on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system.
15/3/21 The government expands COVID-19 vaccination priority groups’ coverage.
14/3/21 Media continues to report on the National People’s Congress’s amendments on Hong Kong’s electoral system.
13/3/21 The government locks down multiple buildings in the Mid-Levels for compulsory testing.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.7 marks, with 41% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity is negative 47 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 32.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 20 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.8 marks and his net popularity is negative 10 percentage points, registering a significant increase of 11 percentage points from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 22.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 47 percentage points.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest continue to be “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.77, 4.76, 4.73, 4.40 and 3.68 respectively. Compared with a month ago, “stability”, “prosperity” and “rule of law” indicators have rebounded significantly, up by 0.47 to 0.50.

Detailed Findings

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