POP releases five core social indicators (2021-03-23)

March 23, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

POP releases five core social indicators

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early March. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.70, 4.26, 4.26, 3.92 and 3.59 respectively. Compared with a month ago, except “freedom” indicator, all other indicators have registered significant decrease, down by 0.58 to 0.72. The effective response rate of the survey is 47.6%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-0.29 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	8-12/3/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1]	:	1,001 (including 496 landline and 505 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	47.6%
Sampling error[2]	:	Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.29 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below. [2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:

Date of survey	9-13/11/20	7-10/12/20	4-8/1/21	2-5/2/21	8-12/3/21	Latest change
Sample size	579-634	602-609	594-604	650-657	534-654	—
Response rate	63.9%	70.0%	58.5%	62.9%	47.6%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Degree of freedom	4.60	4.68	4.45	5.02[3]	4.70+/-0.29	-0.32
Degree of stability	4.15	4.17	4.04	4.99[3]	4.26+/-0.24	-0.72[3]
Degree of prosperity	4.57[3]	4.11[3]	4.09	4.96[3]	4.26+/-0.22	-0.70[3]
Compliance with the rule of law	4.05	4.01	3.80	4.50[3]	3.92+/-0.25	-0.58[3]
Degree of democracy	3.74	3.85	3.56	4.27[3]	3.59+/-0.26	-0.67[3]

[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.70, 4.26, 4.26, 3.92 and 3.59 respectively. Compared with a month ago, except “freedom” indicator, all other indicators have registered significant decrease, down by 0.58 to 0.72.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 2 to 5 February, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 8 to 12 March, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

12/03/21	Hong Kong confirms 54 local infections with coronavirus disease.
12/03/21	Zhang Xiaoming comments on The National People’s Congress decision on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system.
11/03/21	The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system.
08/03/21	A male of age 71 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine.
06/03/21	A female of age 55 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine.
05/03/21	The National People’s Congress will deliberate on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system.
03/03/21	Expert committee finds no link between Sinovac vaccine and the death of the male aged 63.
02/03/21	A male of age 63 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine.
01/03/21	The court reviews 47 democrats’ bail application overnight.
28/02/21	47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”.
27/02/21	Hong Kong confirms 31 local infections with coronavirus disease.
25/02/21	The government will distribute e-vouchers for spending worth $5,000 in batches.
24/02/21	Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.
23/02/21	The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified.
22/2/21	Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”.
19/2/21	The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting.
18/2/21	Sinovac vaccines arrive in Hong Kong. The government announces the vaccination plan.
16/2/21	The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register.
10/2/21	The government announces that the dine-in ban during nighttime will be lifted, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register.
9/2/21	The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai.
5/2/21	Luo Huining holds liaison office’s annual spring reception online and delivers a speech.

Data Analysis

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.70, 4.26, 4.26, 3.92 and 3.59, respectively. Compared with a month ago, except “freedom” indicator, all other indicators have registered significant decrease, down by 0.58 to 0.72.

Detailed Findings