POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments (2021-02-16)

Feb 16, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early February. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 31.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 52 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 31 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.8 marks and her net popularity is negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.6 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	2-5/2/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1]	:	1,018 (including 514 landline and 504 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	62.9%
Sampling error[2]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.6 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below. [2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	23-26/11/20[3]	7-10/12/20	18-22/12/20	4-8/1/21	18-22/1/21	2-5/2/21	Latest change
Sample size	1,085	1,009	1,014	1,000	1,011	1,018	—
Response rate	74.6%	70.0%	68.7%	58.5%	67.2%	62.9%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Rating of CE Carrie Lam	33.5	30.6	29.7	29.0	32.0[4]	31.0+/-2.1	-1.0
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam	21%	20%	18%	19%	21%	18+/-2%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam	66%	69%	69%	72%	69%	70+/-3%	—
Net approval rate	-45%	-50%	-51%	-54%	-49%	-52+/-5%	-3%

[3]POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 25/11/2020 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 26.8 marks, net approval rate at negative 57 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 9-13/11/2020. [4]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	31/8-4/9/20	5-8/10/20	9-13/11/20	7-10/12/20	4-8/1/21	2-5/2/21	Latest change
Sample size	649-689	593-642	608-636	574-657	600-664	529-582	—
Response rate	58.4%	62.8%	63.9%	70.0%	58.5%	62.9%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung	28.5	28.7	30.7	29.2	30.7	31.2+/-2.6	+0.5
Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	16%	18%	18%	17%	18%	16+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	54%	50%	50%	51%	48%	47+/-4%	-1%
Net approval rate	-39%	-32%	-32%	-34%	-29%	-31+/-6%	-2%
Rating of FS Paul Chan	35.5	36.9	39.5	35.4[5]	33.6	35.2+/-2.6	+1.5
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan	28%	28%	29%	24%	27%	23+/-4%	-4%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan	46%	44%	38%[5]	44%[5]	42%	44+/-4%	+3%
Net approval rate	-18%	-16%	-9%	-20%[5]	-14%	-21+/-7%	-7%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng	20.8	19.3	21.7	23.3	23.1	23.8+/-2.4	+0.6
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	13%	12%	13%	14%	14%	11+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	69%	68%	64%	63%	66%	61+/-4%	-5%
Net approval rate	-56%	-57%	-51%	-49%	-52%	-50+/-6%	+2%

[5]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 31.0 marks. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 70%, giving a net popularity of negative 52 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.2 marks. His approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 47%, giving a net popularity of negative 31 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.2 marks, approval rate 23%, disapproval rate 44%, thus a net popularity of negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.8 marks, approval rate 11%, disapproval rate 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much from a month ago.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 4 to 8 January, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 2 to 5 February, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

4/2/21	Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session.
2/2/21	The government continues to lock down multiple areas for compulsory testing and says officials may break into flats.
1/2/21	The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns.
29/1/21	The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports.
28/1/21	The government locks down Tung Fat Building in North Point for compulsory testing.
27/1/21	Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing.
26/1/21	The government locks down areas around Pitt Street for compulsory testing.
24/1/21	Lockdown in Jordan ends with 13 cases found in over 7,000 people.
23/1/21	The government locks down designated areas in Jordan for compulsory testing.
20/1/21	Queen’s Counsel David Perry steps down as prosecutor in an assembly case involving democrats.
18/1/21	Ocean Park announces its reform plan.
15/1/21	Mandatory testing is ordered for residents of 20 buildings in Yau Ma Tei.
13/1/21	Brazil authority announces that the general efficacy of Sinovac vaccine is 50.4%.
6/1/21	Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law.
5/1/21	Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform.
4/1/21	The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 31.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 52 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 31 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.8 marks and her net popularity is negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past.