POP releases popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison

Press Release on Dec 8, 2020

POP releases popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces
and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,085 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late November. Latest survey shows that the Fire Services Department becomes people’s most satisfied disciplinary force again, with a rating of 81.0 marks. The 2nd and 3rd places go to the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Government Flying Service, with 78.2 and 65.7 marks respectively. The 4th to 8th ranks go to the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 40.3 marks, with 34% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate stands at negative 19 percentage points. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much over the past six months. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 49.1 marks. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 10 percentage points. Compared with half a year ago, the rating of the Fire Services Department has increased significantly, whereas that of the Government Flying Service has dropped significantly. The ratings of the Government Flying Service and the Civil Aid Service have registered record lows since the relevant questions first started in 2012. The effective response rate of the survey is 74.6%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-3.9 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 23-26/11/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,085 (including 540 landline and 545 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 74.6%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.9 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

Latest Figures

Latest satisfaction ratings of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 3-6/6/19 1-6/8/19 21-26/11/19 4-6/5/20 23-26/11/20 Latest change
Sample size[3] 528-656 1,015 584-650 536-672 506-535
Response rate 60.4% 62.8% 67.7% 62.5% 74.6%
Latest findings[4] Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recog %
Fire Services Department 83.1{1} 80.5{1}[5] 76.6{2}[5] 81.0+/-1.6{1} 97.4% +4.4[5]
Auxiliary Medical Service 77.4{3} 80.2{2}[5] 77.4{1}[5] 78.2+/-1.7{2} 90.5% +0.8
Government Flying Service 77.9{2} 69.4{3}[5] 71.7{3} 65.7+/-2.6{3} 81.5% -5.9[5]
Customs and Excise Department 73.4{4} 68.7{4}[5] 64.4{4}[5] 64.5+/-2.2{4} 89.9% +0.1
Immigration Department 70.2{5} 66.2{5}[5] 60.8{6}[5] 63.6+/-2.3 {5} 92.5% +2.8
Civil Aid Service 69.9{6}[5] 63.9{6}[5] 62.9{5} 62.9+/-2.4{6} 76.7%
Independent Commission Against Corruption 67.7{7} 57.9{8}[5] 54.8{7} 56.1+/-2.8{7} 86.1% +1.3
Correctional Services Department 66.2{8} 58.3{7}[5] 51.6{8}[5] 52.1+/-3.0{8} 77.1% +0.5
Police Force 61.0{9} 39.4[5] 35.3{9}[5] 36.8{9} 40.3+/-3.4{9} 96.7% +3.5
PLA Hong Kong Garrison 56.8 44.2[5] 44.2 49.1+/-3.9 75.5% +4.9

[3]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[4]     Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results.

[5]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest satisfaction rates of the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison using the 5-point scale are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 15-19/11/18 3-6/6/19 21-26/11/19 4-6/5/20 23-26/11/20 Latest change
Sample size[6] 557-576 594-638 598-602 607-626 518-524
Response rate 67.9% 60.4% 67.7% 62.5% 74.6%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Satisfaction rate of the
Police Force[7]
51% 50% 27%[8] 34%[8] 33+/-4% -1%
Dissatisfaction rate of the
Police Force[7]
28% 28% 65%[8] 59%[8] 52+/-4% -7%[8]
Net satisfaction rate 23% 22% -38%[8] -25%[8] -19+/-8% +6%
Mean value[7] 3.3 3.2 2.2[8] 2.4[8] 2.5+/-0.1 +0.1
Satisfaction rate of the
PLA Hong Kong Garrison[7]
46% 49% 37%[8] 39% 36+/-4% -2%
Dissatisfaction rate of the
PLA Hong Kong Garrison[7]
16%[8] 14% 33%[8] 36% 26+/-4% -10%[8]
Net satisfaction rate 30%[8] 35% 3%[8] 2% 10+/-7% +8%
Mean value[7] 3.5 3.6 3.0[8] 3.0 3.1+/-0.1 +0.2

[6]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[7]     Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.

[8]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Survey shows that the 1st to 3rd places regarding people’s satisfaction with disciplinary forces go to the Fire Services Department, the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Government Flying Service, with rating of 81.0, 78.2 and 65.7 marks respectively. The 4th to 8th ranks go to the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department, with ratings at 64.5, 63.6, 62.9, 56.1 and 52.1 marks respectively. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 40.3 marks, with 34% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its satisfaction rate is 33%, dissatisfaction rate 52%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 19 percentage points and a mean score of 2.5, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much, while the Fire Services Department scored higher than the Auxiliary Medical Service and ranked first again. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 49.1 marks. Its satisfaction rate is 36%, dissatisfaction rate 26%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 10 percentage points and a mean score of 3.1, meaning close to “half-half” in general.

Compared with half a year ago, the rating of the Fire Services Department has increased significantly, whereas that of the Government Flying Service has dropped significantly. The ratings of the Government Flying Service and the Civil Aid Service have registered record lows since the relevant questions first started in 2012.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 4 to 6 May, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 23 to 26 November, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/11/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”.
21/11/20 Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession.
19/11/20 The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights.
16/11/20 A tenement building in Yau Ma Tei catches fire causing 7 deaths and 11 injuries.
1/11/20 Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance.
31/10/20 Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty.
13/10/20 Xi Jinping attends anniversary celebration of the establishment of the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone.
10/10/20 Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong.
1/10/20 Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay.
22/9/20 Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders.
12/9/20 Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference.
11/9/20 The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam.
10/9/20 Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares.
27/8/20 China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 young Hong Kong people.
26/8/20 Police arrests 13 people who were not “people in white” for rioting in the 7.21 incident.
10/8/20 Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law.
8/8/20 The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials.
15/7/20 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act.
6/7/20 The implementation rules for the national security law are gazetted by the government.
3/7/20 The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law.
1/7/20 Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest.
30/6/20 The national security law is passed and comes into effect.
4/6/20 June 4 vigils are held in various districts.
27/5/20 Over 360 people are arrested in protests against the National Anthem Bill and the national security law.
24/5/20 People rally against the national security law on Hong Kong Island. Over 180 people are arrested.
22/5/20 The Central Government will set up national security agencies in Hong Kong after implementation of national security law.
15/5/20 Independent Police Complaints Council releases a report saying there is no evidence of casualties in the Prince Edward MTR incident on August 31.

Data Analysis

Our latest survey shows that the Fire Services Department becomes people’s most satisfied disciplinary force again, with a rating of 81.0 marks. The 2nd and 3rd places go to the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Government Flying Service, with 78.2 and 65.7 marks respectively. The 4th to 8th ranks go to the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 40.3 marks, with 34% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate stands at negative 19 percentage points. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much over the past six months. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 49.1 marks. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 10 percentage points.

Compared with half a year ago, the rating of the Fire Services Department has increased significantly, whereas that of the Government Flying Service has dropped significantly. The ratings of the Government Flying Service and the Civil Aid Service have registered record lows since the relevant questions first started in 2012.

Detailed Findings

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