POP releases five core social indicators

Press Release on November 24, 2020

POP releases five core social indicators

Special Announcements

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

According to the result of our public consultation conducted a few months ago, the survey of the five core social indicators has been increased to once a month from the second half of this year, while the remaining 20 or so non-core social indicators, freedom and rule of law sub-indicators will remain to be run on a half-yearly cycle. Today’s release, therefore, only includes the five core social indicators.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-November. Our survey shows that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.60, 4.57, 4.15, 4.05 and 3.74 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has increased significantly. The effective response rate of the survey is 63.9%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-0.27 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 9-13/11/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,005 (including 512 landline and 493 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 63.9%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.27 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:

Date of survey 6-9/7/20 3-6/8/20 31/8-4/9/20 19-22/10/20 9-13/11/20 Latest change
Sample size 598-664 584-619 590-618 575-632 579-634
Response rate 52.4% 64.4% 58.4% 62.2% 63.9%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Degree of freedom 4.84[3] 4.74 4.13[3] 4.60[3] 4.60+/-0.26 -0.01
Degree of prosperity 5.35 4.19[3] 4.15 4.30 4.57+/-0.18 +0.27[3]
Degree of stability 4.12[3] 3.76[3] 3.63 4.15[3] 4.15+/-0.24
Compliance with the rule of law 4.14 3.80 3.41[3] 3.82[3] 4.05+/-0.26 +0.24
Degree of democracy 4.37 3.70[3] 3.49 3.61 3.74+/-0.27 +0.13

[3]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.60, 4.57, 4.15, 4.05 and 3.74 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has increased significantly.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 19 to 22 October, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 9 to 13 November, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

14/11/20 The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing.
11/11/20 NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo.
8/11/20 Biden gives victory speech.
7/11/20 Multiple US media calls the presidential election for Biden, but Trump makes claims of election fraud.
6/11/20 Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam.
1/11/20 Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance.
31/10/20 Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty.
29/10/20 The fifth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the 15th Five-Year Plan.
27/10/20 The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures.
23/10/20 Xi Jinping attends anniversary event of the Korean War and delivers a speech.
21/10/20 Cathay Pacific announces massive lay-offs and closes Cathay Dragon.
20/10/20 The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.60, 4.57, 4.15, 4.05 and 3.74 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has increased significantly.

Detailed Findings

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