POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

 Press Release on November 17, 2020

POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcements

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

According to the result of our public consultation conducted a few months ago, the popularity survey on the Secretaries of Departments continues to take place every month, while that on the Directors of Bureaux has been thinned out to once every 2 months since the second half of this year. Today’s release includes the popularities of CE and all principal officials.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-November. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.8 marks. Her net popularity is negative 48 percentage points. Both popularity figures have increased significantly from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 39.5 marks and his net popularity is negative 9 percentage points which is a new high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 21.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 51 percentage points. All net popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them continue to register negative net approval rates, but all have gone up as compared to two months ago. All except those of Patrick Nip and Kevin Yeung have changed beyond sampling error. The effective response rate of the survey is 63.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 9-13/11/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,005 (including 512 landline and 493 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 63.9%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 17-20/8/20 31/8-4/9/20 21-24/9/20 5-8/10/20 19-22/10/20 9-13/11/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,020 1,007 1,013 1,002 1,020 1,005
Response rate 60.9% 58.4% 61.5% 62.8% 62.2% 63.9%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 26.8 28.1 27.5 28.6 27.2 30.8+/-2.2 +3.6[3]
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 24%[3] 21% 17% 18% 18% 21+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 70% 69% 71% 72% 74% 69+/-3% -4%[3]
Net approval rate -46%[3] -48% -53% -53% -56% -48+/-5% +8%[3]

[3]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 1-4/6/20 6-9/7/20 3-6/8/20 31/8-4/9/20 5-8/10/20 9-13/11/20 Latest change
Sample size 562-655 524-596 503-655 649-689 593-642 608-636
Response rate 64.3% 52.4% 64.4% 58.4% 62.8% 63.9%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 30.6 29.9 29.0 28.5 28.7 30.7+/-2.4 +2.0
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
19% 19% 16% 16% 18% 18+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
51% 52% 55% 54% 50% 50+/-4%
Net approval rate -32% -33% -39% -39% -32% -32+/-6%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 34.3 37.8 37.0 35.5 36.9 39.5+/-2.5 +2.6
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 26% 28% 26% 28% 28% 29+/-4% +1%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 47% 44% 46% 46% 44% 38+/-4% -6%[4]
Net approval rate -21% -16% -20% -18% -16% -9+/-7% +7%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 18.7 20.3 22.2 20.8 19.3 21.7+/-2.3 +2.4
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 11% 10% 15%[4] 13% 12% 13+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 72% 68% 67% 69% 68% 64+/-4% -5%
Net approval rate -61% -57% -53% -56% -57% -51+/-6% +6%

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[5]:

Date of survey 1-4/6/20 6-9/7/20 31/8-4/9/20 9-13/11/20 Latest change
Sample size 577-1,002 584-634 580-645 588-642
Response rate 64.3% 52.4% 58.4% 63.9%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 20%[6] 24% 22% 28+/-4% +6%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 28%[6] 29% 31% 28+/-4% -3%
Net approval rate -7%[6] -4% -9% -<1+/-6% +9%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 16% 20% 16% 20+/-3% +4%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 22% 25% 27% 21+/-3% -6%[6]
Net approval rate -6% -5% -11% -1+/-5% +10%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 32% 30% 27% 36+/-4% +9%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 37% 34% 49%[6] 38+/-4% -10%[6]
Net approval rate -5% -4% -21%[6] -2+/-7% +19%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 18% 23%[6] 19% 23+/-4% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 28%[6] 30% 35% 26+/-4% -9%[6]
Net approval rate -10%[6] -7% -16%[6] -3+/-6% +13%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 17% 19% 15%[6] 21+/-3% +6%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 29%[6] 29% 32% 27+/-4% -5%
Net approval rate -11% -9% -17%[6] -6+/-6% +11%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 26% 29% 24% 28+/-4% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 41% 39% 44% 36+/-4% -8%[6]
Net approval rate -15% -10% -20%[6] -9+/-7% +11%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 18% 19% 17% 20+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 33%[6] 32% 36% 29+/-4% -7%[6]
Net approval rate -15%[6] -13% -19% -9+/-6% +10%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 20% 24% 21% 28+/-4% +8%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 48%[6] 43% 48%[6] 38+/-4% -10%[6]
Net approval rate -28% -18%[6] -27%[6] -10+/-7% +17%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 16%[6] 19% 20% 25+/-4% +5%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 45% 43% 45% 38+/-4% -7%[6]
Net approval rate -29%[6] -24% -26% -13+/-7% +12%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 21% 21% 23% 23+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 39% 45%[6] 49% 42+/-4% -7%[6]
Net approval rate -18%[6] -24% -26% -19+/-6% +7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 21% 23% 19% 23+/-3% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 42% 41% 50%[6] 43+/-4% -8%[6]
Net approval rate -21% -18% -31%[6] -20+/-7% +11%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 23%[6] 26% 21% 24+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 60% 59% 63% 55+/-4% -8%[6]
Net approval rate -37%[6] -33% -42% -31+/-7% +11%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 13%[6] 15% 17% 20+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 64%[6] 62% 60% 59+/-4%
Net approval rate -51%[6] -47% -43% -39+/-6% +4%

[5]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[6]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.8 marks. Her approval rate is 21%, disapproval rate 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 48 percentage points. Both the popularity rating and net popularity have increased significantly from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks. His approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 50%, giving a net popularity of negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 39.5 marks, approval rate 29%, disapproval rate 38%, thus a net popularity of negative 9 percentage points which is a new high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 21.7 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 64%, giving a net popularity of negative 51 percentage points. All net popularity cited above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rate of all 13 Directors have gone up. All but those of Patrick Nip and Kevin Yeung have changed beyond sampling error.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Paul Chan, Edward Yau, Law Chi-kwong, Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan, Erick Tsang and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong, Christopher Hui and Caspar Tsui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Teresa Cheng, Kevin Yeung, John Lee and Matthew Cheung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Nil
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Nil
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (36%)

FS Paul Chan Mo-po (29%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (28%)

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (28%)

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (28%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (25%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang Kwok-wai (23%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (23%)

 
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%

ranked by their approval rates[7]

the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit Wing-hang (23%, 49%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (21%, 48%)

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu (20%, 42%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui Ying-wai (20%, 49%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%

ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7]

SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (64%)

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (59%)

Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (55%)

CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (50%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%

ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7]

CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (69%)

[7]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 31 August to 4 September, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 9 to 13 November, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

11/11/20 NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo.
6/11/20 Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam.
1/11/20 Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance.
31/10/20 Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty.
21/10/20 Cathay Pacific announces massive lay-offs and closes Cathay Dragon.
12/10/20 Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address.
10/10/20 Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong.
6/10/20 The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct.
1/10/20 Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay.
22/9/20 Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders.
14/9/20 The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found.
12/9/20 Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference.
11/9/20 The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam.
10/9/20 Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.8 marks. Her net popularity is negative 48 percentage points. Both popularity figures have increased significantly from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 39.5 marks and his net popularity is negative 9 percentage points which is a new high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 21.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 51 percentage points. All net popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them continue to register negative net approval rates, but all have gone up as compared to two months ago. All except those of Patrick Nip and Kevin Yeung have changed beyond sampling error.

Detailed Findings

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