POP releases survey results on Taiwan and Tibetan issues

Press Release on November 10, 2020

POP releases survey results on Taiwan and Tibetan issues

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,020 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of October. Our survey shows that Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait has rebounded significantly from the historical low last time by 17 percentage points to negative 36. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 26 percentage points, which has dropped significantly from the historical high last time by 10 percentage points. As for the independence of Taiwan, 41% each showed support and opposition respectively. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 45 percentage points. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet stands at negative 13 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4% and that of net values is +/-7% at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 19-22/10/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,020 (including 508 landline and 512 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 62.2%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

People’s latest views towards various Taiwan and Tibetan issues are summarized below:

Date of survey 6-9/8/18 7-11/1/19 2-8/7/19 3-8/1/20 19-22/10/20 Latest change
Sample size[3] 553-612 505-550 575-648 585-657 593-629
Response rate 51.2% 55.6% 67.4% 72.0% 62.2%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Confidence in cross-strait reunification 35% 28%[4] 27% 19%[4] 26+/-4% +6%[4]
No confidence in cross-strait reunification 56%[4] [5] 60% 65% 72%[4] 61+/-4% -11%[4]
Net confidence -22% -33%[4] -38% -53%[4] -36+/-7% +17%[4]
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate 59% 54% 57% 63% 53+/-4% -10%[4]
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate 29% 29% 27% 26% 27+/-4%
Net support 30% 25% 31% 36% 26+/-7% -10%[4]
Taiwan independence: Support rate 34% 35% 44%[4] 48% 41+/-4% -7%[4]
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate 54% 50% 44%[4] 39%[4] 41+/-4% +2%
Net support -20% -16% 0%[4] 9% 0+/-7% -9%
Believe “one country, two systems” is applicable to Taiwan 35% 29%[4] 27% 21%[4] 18+/-3% -3%
Believe “one country, two systems” is not applicable to Taiwan 50% 59%[4] 63% 66% 63+/-4% -3%
Net value of applicability -14% -30%[4] -36% -45% -45+/-6%
Tibet independence: Support rate 19% 19% 26%[4] 34%[4] 28+/-4% -5%
Tibet independence: Opposition rate 63% 58% 53% 46%[4] 41+/-4% -5%
Net support -44% -39% -27%[4] -13%[4] -13+/-7%

[3]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[5]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.

The latest survey reveals that 26% of Hong Kong people interviewed were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait while 61% expressed no confidence. Net confidence has rebounded significantly from the historical low last time by 17 percentage points to negative 36. Regarding international space, 53% supported Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations while 27% opposed that. Net support stands at positive 26 percentage points, which has dropped significantly from the historical high last time by 10 percentage points. As for the independence of Taiwan, 41% each showed support and opposition respectively. Meanwhile, 18% believed “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan while 63% believed it was not. Net value of applicability stands at negative 45 percentage points. Regarding Tibetan issues, 41% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Tibet whereas 28% showed support. Net support stands at negative 13 percentage points.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 8 January, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 October, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

14/10/20 Xi Jinping delivers a speech in Shenzhen.
12/10/20 Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address.
10/10/20 Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong.
6/10/20 The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct.
1/10/20 Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay.
30/9/20 Luo Huining, Tung Chee-hwa and principal officials of Hong Kong celebrates the 71st anniversary of the founding of the PRC.
22/9/20 Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders.
14/9/20 The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found.
11/9/20 The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam.
10/9/20 Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares.
27/8/20 China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 young Hong Kong people.
26/8/20 Police arrests 13 people who were not “people in white” for rioting in the 7.21 incident.
11/8/20 The NPCSC decides that the current Legislative Council shall continue to discharge duties for no less than one year.
10/8/20 Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law.
8/8/20 The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials.
6/8/20 The US expands the “Clean Network” to further limit Chinese technology firms.
31/7/20 The government postpones the Legislative Council election for a year.
30/7/20 Nominations of 12 democrats for Legislative Council election are invalidated.
29/7/20 All-day dine-in ban takes effect, forcing people to eat in the streets.
28/7/20 HKU Council decides to dismiss Benny Tai with immediate effect.
27/7/20 The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 2 people and imposes all-day dine-in ban.
24/7/20 US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on China policy, while China orders the US to close its consulate in Chengdu.
22/7/20 The US orders China to close its consulate in Houston within 72 hours.
15/7/20 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act.
4/7/20 Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review.
1/7/20 Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest.
30/6/20 The national security law is passed and comes into effect.
6/6/20 Kaohsiung residents voted to recall mayor Han Kuo-yu.
4/6/20 June 4 vigils are held in various districts.
29/5/20 Donald Trump announces new measures toward China and Hong Kong and says China has replaced one country, two systems with one country, one system.
27/5/20 Over 360 people are arrested in protests against the National Anthem Bill and the national security law.
24/5/20 People rally against the national security law on Hong Kong Island. Over 180 people are arrested.
20/5/20 Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is sworn into office.
21/4/20 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office issues multiple statements to criticize Dennis Kwok.
18/4/20 15 pan-democrats including Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai are arrested.
15/4/20 Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security.
13/4/20 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok.
27/3/20 The government announces the ban on gathering with more than 4 people.
17/3/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from any foreign country will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
28/2/20 Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum.
6/2/20 People rush to purchase daily necessities.
31/1/20 The government refuses full border closure.
29/1/20 People rush to purchase masks, which are in short supply.
21/1/20 Wuhan pneumonia continues to spread rapidly and into Taiwan.
11/1/20 Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election.

Data Analysis

Survey on Taiwan and Tibetan issues shows that Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait has rebounded significantly from the historical low last time by 17 percentage points to negative 36. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 26 percentage points, which has dropped significantly from the historical high last time by 10 percentage points. As for the independence of Taiwan, 41% each showed support and opposition respectively. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 45 percentage points. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet stands at negative 13 percentage points.

Detailed Findings

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