POP releases popularity of Legislative Councillors and political groups

Press Release on November 3, 2020

POP releases popularity of Legislative Councillors and political groups

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,002, 504 and 510 Hong Kong residents respectively by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in October. Our surveys show that Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Claudia Mo, Roy Kwong, James To and Priscilla Leung are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 57.3 marks. James To and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd and 3rd with 46.4 and 44.7 marks respectively while the latter’s rating has dropped significantly by 5.8 marks compared with the last survey. Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung follow behind with 32.2 and 25.9 marks respectively. Alvin Yeung obtains a rating of 44.8 marks, registering a significant drop of 8.7 marks compared with the last survey, and is dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. Meanwhile, the ratings of Priscilla Leung and Alvin Yeung have registered record lows since they were first rated in 2017. Regarding the popularity of political groups, People Power topped the list with 42.9 marks for the first time. Democratic Party, LSD, Civic Party, Labour Party and Civic Passion rank the 2nd to 6th with 42.5, 40.7, 39.3, 36.8 and 35.6 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to Liberal Party, New People’s Party, DAB and FTU which attain 33.6, 27.8, 27.4 and 27.4 marks respectively. Neo Democrats and BPA obtain support ratings of 38.4 and 25.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of DAB, FTU, BPA and Liberal Party have dropped significantly. The ratings of People Power and Civic Passion register record highs since they were first rated in 2011 and 2016 respectively, while that of LSD also registers record high since 2014. On the other hand, the ratings of FTU, Liberal Party, Civic Party, New People’s Party and BPA register record lows since they were first rated in 1991, 1993, 2006, 2011 and 2017 respectively. The effective response rates of the Legislative Councillors and political groups rating surveys are 58.3% and 65.9% respectively. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.4 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Legislative Councillors
naming stage
Legislative Councillors
rating stage &
Political groups
naming stage
Political groups
rating stage
Date of survey : 5-8/10/2020 19-20/10/2020 21-22/10/2020
Sample size[1] : 1,002 (including 492 landline and 510 mobile samples) 504 (including 250 landline and 254 mobile samples) 510 (including 255 landline and 255 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 62.8% 58.3% 65.9%
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.4 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of Legislative Councillors

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Claudia Mo, Roy Kwong, James To and Priscilla Leung were the top 6 councillors mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Legislative Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Legislative Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:

Date of survey 21-23/10/19 7-8/1/20 1-2/4/20 19-20/10/20 Latest change
Sample size[4] 526 507 500 504
Response rate 63.4% 70.4% 68.1% 58.3%
Latest findings[5] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
Roy Kwong 59.0{1} 64.3{1}[6] 60.4{1} 57.3+/-3.4{1} 79.1% -3.2
James To 46.4+/-2.9{2} 84.5%
Claudia Mo 48.8{3} 54.0{4}[6] 50.5{4} 44.7+/-3.1{3} 86.8% -5.8[6]
Starry Lee 25.3{4}[6] 28.6{5} 32.8{5}[6] 32.2+/-3.2{4} 90.0% -0.6
Priscilla Leung 25.9+/-3.0{5} 82.0%
Alvin Yeung 57.7[7] 56.7[7] 53.5{2} 44.8+/-3.2[7] 78.4% -8.7[6]
Eddie Chu 52.6{3}
Jeremy Tam 56.1[7]
Lam Cheuk-ting 56.6{2}
Tanya Chan 52.3{2} 56.5{3}
Junius Ho 17.1{5}

[3]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[4]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[5]     Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[6]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[7]     Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

The latest survey shows that Roy Kwong is the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 57.3 marks. James To and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd and 3rd with 46.4 and 44.7 marks respectively. The latter’s rating has dropped significantly by 5.8 marks compared with the last survey. Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung follow behind with 32.2 and 25.9 marks respectively. In this latest survey, Alvin Yeung obtains a rating of 44.8 marks, registering a significant drop of 8.7 marks compared with the last survey, but is dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. Meanwhile, the ratings of Priscilla Leung and Alvin Yeung have registered record lows since they were first rated in 2017.

It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.

Popularity of Political Groups

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party, Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Civic Party, Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Liberal Party, New People’s Party, League of Social Democrats (LSD), Labour Party, People Power, Civic Passion, Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA) and Neo Democrats were the top 12 political groups mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political groups using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 political groups. Recent ratings of the top 10 political groups are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[8]:

Date of survey 23-25/4/19 3-4/9/19 16-17/4/20 21-22/10/20 Latest change
Sample size[9] 537-698 536 500 510
Response rate 66.1% 69.9% 61.6% 65.9%
Latest findings[10] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
People Power 37.7{10} 42.5{5}[11] 40.0{4} 42.9+/-2.9{1} 82.4% +2.9
Democratic Party 42.2{2} 44.6{4} 42.9{2} 42.5+/-2.6{2} 92.0% -0.4
LSD 38.1{9} 39.5{6} 39.0{6} 40.7+/-2.6{3} 82.1% +1.7
Civic Party 46.6{1} 45.1{3} 39.4{5}[11] 39.3+/-2.7{4} 84.4% -0.1
Labour Party 41.3{5} 37.9[11] [13] 35.8[13] 36.8+/-2.7{5} 70.7% +1.0
Civic Passion 35.6+/-2.8{6} 75.6%
Liberal Party 41.9{4}[11] 37.6{7}[11] 37.7{7} 33.6+/-2.3{7} 82.7% -4.1[11]
New People’s Party 38.9{7}[11] 28.8{8}[11] 29.7{10} 27.8+/-2.7{8} 80.4% -1.9
DAB 38.7{8}[11] 26.8{10}[11] 35.2{8}[11] 27.4+/-2.8{9} 91.8% -7.8[11]
FTU 42.2{3}[11] 28.5{9}[11] 32.0{9} 27.4+/-2.7{10} 89.8% -4.6[11]
Neo Democrats 38.4+/-3.0[13] 62.3%
BPA 35.1[13] 29.6[13] 25.3+/-2.8[13] 69.8% -4.3[11]
Demosistō 38.2[13] 45.2{2}[11] 43.1{1}
ADPL 40.7{6} 41.6{3}
CHRF 51.2{1}
HKCTU 38.6[13]

[8]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[10]  Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[11]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[12]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.

[13]  Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

The latest survey shows that People Power tops the list and becomes the most popularly supported political group, attaining 42.9 marks. Democratic Party, LSD, Civic Party, Labour Party and Civic Passion rank the 2nd to 6th with 42.5, 40.7, 39.3, 36.8 and 35.6 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to Liberal Party, New People’s Party, DAB and FTU which attain 33.6, 27.8, 27.4 and 27.4 marks respectively. In this latest survey, Neo Democrats and BPA obtain support ratings of 38.4 and 25.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of DAB, FTU, BPA and Liberal Party have dropped significantly. The ratings of People Power and Civic Passion register record highs since they were first rated in 2011 and 2016 respectively, while that of LSD also registers record high since 2014. On the other hand, the ratings of FTU, Liberal Party, Civic Party, New People’s Party and BPA register record lows since they were first rated in 1991, 1993, 2006, 2011 and 2017 respectively.

It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 10” only includes political groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 1 to 2 April, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 October, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

21/10/20 Cathay Pacific announces massive lay-offs and closes Cathay Dragon.
12/10/20 Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address.
10/10/20 Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong.
6/10/20 The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct.
1/10/20 Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay.
29/9/20 Democrats announce survey results on whether Legislative Councillors should stay or go.
22/9/20 Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders.
14/9/20 The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found.
12/9/20 Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference.
11/9/20 The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam.
10/9/20 Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares.
3/9/20 The Universal Community Testing Programme locates two new cases among about 128,000 tests conducted.
27/8/20 China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 young Hong Kong people.
26/8/20 Police arrests 13 people who were not “people in white” for rioting in the 7.21 incident.
11/8/20 The NPCSC decides that the current Legislative Council shall continue to discharge duties for no less than one year.
10/8/20 Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law.
8/8/20 The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials.
31/7/20 The government postpones the Legislative Council election for a year.
30/7/20 Nominations of 12 democrats for Legislative Council election are invalidated.
29/7/20 All-day dine-in ban takes effect, forcing people to eat in the streets.
28/7/20 HKU Council decides to dismiss Benny Tai with immediate effect.
4/7/20 Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review.
3/7/20 The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law.
1/7/20 Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest.
30/6/20 The national security law is passed and comes into effect.
8/6/20 The government announces the arrangements for $10,000 cash payout.
4/6/20 June 4 vigils are held in various districts.
29/5/20 Donald Trump announces new measures toward China and Hong Kong and says China has replaced one country, two systems with one country, one system.
27/5/20 Over 360 people are arrested in protests against the National Anthem Bill and the national security law.
24/5/20 People rally against the national security law on Hong Kong Island. Over 180 people are arrested.
18/5/20 Starry Lee Wai-king is elected the chairperson of the House Committee of the Legislative Council.
15/5/20 Independent Police Complaints Council releases a report saying there is no evidence of casualties in the Prince Edward MTR incident on August 31.
8/5/20 Eleven democrats get thrown out after conflicts occur in a meeting of the House Committee of the Legislative Council.
21/4/20 The government announces the appointment of five Directors of Bureaux.
21/4/20 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office issues multiple statements to criticize Dennis Kwok.
18/4/20 15 pan-democrats including Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai are arrested.
13/4/20 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok.
9/4/20 The government launches a subsidy scheme involving $80 billion to keep workers in employment.
8/4/20 The government announces relief measures involving over $130 billion to combat the pandemic.

Data Analysis

Regarding the popularity of Legislative Councillors, Alvin Yeung, Starry Lee, Claudia Mo, Roy Kwong, James To and Priscilla Leung are the six councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 57.3 marks. James To and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd and 3rd with 46.4 and 44.7 marks respectively while the latter’s rating has dropped significantly by 5.8 marks compared with the last survey. Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung follow behind with 32.2 and 25.9 marks respectively. Alvin Yeung obtains a rating of 44.8 marks, registering a significant drop of 8.7 marks compared with the last survey, and is dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. Meanwhile, the ratings of Priscilla Leung and Alvin Yeung have registered record lows since they were first rated in 2017.

Regarding the popularity of political groups, People Power topped the list with 42.9 marks for the first time. Democratic Party, LSD, Civic Party, Labour Party and Civic Passion rank the 2nd to 6th with 42.5, 40.7, 39.3, 36.8 and 35.6 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks go to Liberal Party, New People’s Party, DAB and FTU which attain 33.6, 27.8, 27.4 and 27.4 marks respectively. Neo Democrats and BPA obtain support ratings of 38.4 and 25.3 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to six months ago, the ratings of DAB, FTU, BPA and Liberal Party have dropped significantly. The ratings of People Power and Civic Passion register record highs since they were first rated in 2011 and 2016 respectively, while that of LSD also registers record high since 2014. On the other hand, the ratings of FTU, Liberal Party, Civic Party, New People’s Party and BPA register record lows since they were first rated in 1991, 1993, 2006, 2011 and 2017 respectively.

Detailed Findings

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