Oct 16, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
Press Release on October 16, 2020
POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the popularity survey of Directors of Bureaux have been thinned out to once every 2 months since the second half of this year. Therefore, today’s release only includes the popularity figures of CE and 3 Secretaries of Departments.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early October. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 36.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 19.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.8%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 5-8/10/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,002 (including 492 landline and 510 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 62.8% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 20-24/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,029 | 1,001 | 1,020 | 1,007 | 1,013 | 1,002 | — |
| Response rate | 62.5% | 64.4% | 60.9% | 58.4% | 61.5% | 62.8% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 28.9 | 26.9 | 26.8 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 28.6+/-2.1 | +1.0 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 18%[3] | 19% | 24%[3] | 21% | 17% | 18+/-2% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 72% | 72% | 70% | 69% | 71% | 72+/-3% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -53% | -54% | -46%[3] | -48% | -53% | -53+/-5% | — |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 4-6/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 574-609 | 562-655 | 524-596 | 503-655 | 649-689 | 593-642 | — |
| Response rate | 62.5% | 64.3% | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.8% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 30.1 | 30.6 | 29.9 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.7+/-2.4 | +0.3 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung | 17% | 19% | 19% | 16% | 16% | 18+/-3% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung | 49% | 51% | 52% | 55% | 54% | 50+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -32% | -32% | -33% | -39% | -39% | -32+/-6% | +7% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 33.3 | 34.3 | 37.8 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 36.9+/-2.7 | +1.4 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 25% | 26% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28+/-4% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 49% | 47% | 44% | 46% | 46% | 44+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -24% | -21% | -16% | -20% | -18% | -16+/-7% | +2% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 20.2 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 19.3+/-2.2 | -1.5 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 8% | 11% | 10% | 15%[4] | 13% | 12+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 69% | 72% | 68% | 67% | 69% | 68+/-4% | — |
| Net approval rate | -61% | -61% | -57% | -53% | -56% | -57+/-6% | -1% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.6 marks. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.7 marks. His approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 50%, giving a net popularity of negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 36.9 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 44%, thus a net popularity of negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 19.3 marks, approval rate 12%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 31 August to 4 September, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 5 to 8 October, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 8/10/20 | Hong Kong confirms 14 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 7/10/20 | Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 6/10/20 | The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct. |
| 1/10/20 | Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay. |
| 29/9/20 | Democrats announce survey results on whether Legislative Councillors should stay or go. |
| 23/9/20 | The government announces that Hong Kong Disneyland’s option to purchase a potential 60-hectare expansion site will not be extended. |
| 22/9/20 | Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders. |
| 15/9/20 | The government explains the costs and benefits of the Universal Community Testing Programme. |
| 14/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found. |
| 12/9/20 | Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference. |
| 11/9/20 | The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam. |
| 10/9/20 | Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares. |
| 8/9/20 | The government further relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
| 2/9/20 | The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
| 1/9/20 | About 126,000 people have taken the test on the first day of the Universal Community Testing Programme. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 36.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 19.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.