POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Press Release on September 8, 2020

POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the popularity survey of Secretaries of Departments will continue to be repeated once a month, while that for Directors of Bureaux will be thinned out to once every 2 months starting from the second half of this year.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late August to early September. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.1 marks. Her net popularity is negative 48 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.5 marks and his net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.5 marks and his net popularity is negative 18 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.8 marks and her net popularity is negative 56 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, only net approval rate of Kevin Yeung has gone up while the other 12 have all gone down. Those of Sophia Chan, Erick Tsang, Law Chi-kwong, Alfred Sit, Edward Yau and Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling error, down by 17, 13, 10, 9, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. The net approval rates of Michael Wong and Law Chi-kwong have registered historical lows since they took office. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 31/8-4/9/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,007 (including 498 landline and 509 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 58.4%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 15-18/6/20 6-9/7/20 20-24/7/20 3-6/8/20 17-20/8/20 31/8-4/9/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,002 1,001 1,029 1,001 1,020 1,007
Response rate 54.1% 52.4% 62.5% 64.4% 60.9% 58.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 29.0 29.0 28.9 26.9 26.8 28.1+/-2.2 +1.3
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 22% 23% 18%[3] 19% 24%[3] 21+/-3% -3%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 70% 69% 72% 72% 70% 69+/-3% -1%
Net approval rate -48% -46% -53% -54% -46%[3] -48+/-5% -3%

[3]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 30/3-2/4/20 4-6/5/20 1-4/6/20 6-9/7/20 3-6/8/20 31/8-4/9/20 Latest change
Sample size 672-685 574-609 562-655 524-596 503-655 649-689
Response rate 66.7% 62.5% 64.3% 52.4% 64.4% 58.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 29.5[4] 30.1 30.6 29.9 29.0 28.5+/-2.3 -0.5
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
16% 17% 19% 19% 16% 16+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
50%[4] 49% 51% 52% 55% 54+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -34%[4] -32% -32% -33% -39% -39+/-6%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 32.4 33.3 34.3 37.8 37.0 35.5+/-2.4 -1.5
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 23% 25% 26% 28% 26% 28+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 49% 49% 47% 44% 46% 46+/-4%
Net approval rate -26% -24% -21% -16% -20% -18+/-6% +2%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 18.7 20.2 18.7 20.3 22.2 20.8+/-2.4 -1.4
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 7% 8% 11% 10% 15%[4] 13+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 70% 69% 72% 68% 67% 69+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -63% -61% -61% -57% -53% -56+/-6% -3%

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[5]:

Date of survey 4-6/5/20 1-4/6/20 6-9/7/20 31/8-4/9/20 Latest change
Sample size 611-659 577-1,002 584-634 580-645
Response rate 62.5% 64.3% 52.4% 58.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 29%[6] 20%[6] 24% 22+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 23% 28%[6] 29% 31+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate 7%[6] -7%[6] -4% -9+/-6% -5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 19% 16% 20% 16+/-3% -4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 20% 22% 25% 27+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -1% -6% -5% -11+/-5% -6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 20% 18% 23%[6] 19+/-3% -4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 23% 28%[6] 30% 35+/-4% +5%
Net approval rate -3% -10%[6] -7% -16+/-6% -9%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 20% 17% 19% 15+/-3% -5%[6]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 23% 29%[6] 29% 32+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -4% -11% -9% -17+/-6% -8%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 19% 18% 19% 17+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 22% 33%[6] 32% 36+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -3% -15%[6] -13% -19+/-6% -6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 26% 26% 29% 24+/-4% -4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 38% 41% 39% 44+/-4% +5%
Net approval rate -12% -15% -10% -20+/-7% -10%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 32%[6] 32% 30% 27+/-4% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 37%[6] 37% 34% 49+/-4% +15%[6]
Net approval rate -5%[6] -5% -4% -21+/-7% -17%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 22% 16%[6] 19% 20+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 42% 45% 43% 45+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -20% -29%[6] -24% -26+/-6% -2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 25% 21% 21% 23+/-3% +2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 34% 39% 45%[6] 49+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -9% -18%[6] -24% -26+/-6% -2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 23% 20% 24% 21+/-3% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 42%[6] 48%[6] 43% 48+/-4% +6%[6]
Net approval rate -19%[6] -28% -18%[6] -27+/-6% -9%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 19% 21% 23% 19+/-3% -4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 37% 42% 41% 50+/-4% +9%[6]
Net approval rate -18% -21% -18% -31+/-6% -13%[6]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 17% 23%[6] 26% 21+/-3% -5%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 64%[6] 60% 59% 63+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -47% -37%[6] -33% -42+/-7% -9%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 18% 13%[6] 15% 17+/-3% +2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 54% 64%[6] 62% 60+/-4% -2%
Net approval rate -35% -51%[6] -47% -43+/-6% +4%

[5]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[6]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.1 marks. Her approval rate is 21%, disapproval rate 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 48 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.5 marks. His approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 54%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.5 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 46%, thus a net popularity of negative 18 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.8 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 56 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung.

Compared to two months ago, the net approval rate of 1 Director has gone up while 12 have gone down. Those of Sophia Chan, Erick Tsang, Law Chi-kwong, Alfred Sit, Edward Yau and Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling error, down by 17, 13, 10, 9, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. The net approval rates of Michael Wong and Law Chi-kwong have registered historical lows since they took office.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Paul Chan, Sophia Chan, Law Chi-kwong, Patrick Nip, Wong Kam-sing, Edward Yau, Frank Chan, Alfred Sit and Caspar Tsui can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Christopher Hui and Michael Wong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. John Lee, Kevin Yeung, Matthew Cheung and Erick Tsang fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Nil
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
Nil
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7]
FS Paul Chan Mo-po (28%)

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (27%)

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (24%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (23%)

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (22%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (21%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (20%)

Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit Wing-hang (19%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui Ying-wai (17%)

 
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%

ranked by their approval rates[7]

the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu (16%, 43%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (15%, 47%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%

ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7]

Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (63%)

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (60%)

CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (54%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang Kwok-wai (50%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%

ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7]

CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (69%)

SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (69%)

[7]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 6 to 9 July, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 31 August to 4 September, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

3/9/20 The Universal Community Testing Programme locates two new cases among about 128,000 tests conducted.
2/9/20 The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures.
1/9/20 About 126,000 people have taken the test on the first day of the Universal Community Testing Programme.
27/8/20 China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 yonng Hong Kong people.
26/8/20 Police arrests 13 people who were not “people in white” for rioting in the 7.21 incident.
25/8/20 The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures.
19/8/20 Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 6.1%.
18/8/20 The government announces the second round of Employment Support Scheme.
10/8/20 Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law.
8/8/20 The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials.
7/8/20 The government announces mass voluntary coronavirus testing scheme.
1/8/20 The first team from the National Health Commission arrives in Hong Kong.
31/7/20 The government postpones the Legislative Council election for a year.
30/7/20 Nominations of 12 democrats for Legislative Council election are invalidated.
29/7/20 All-day dine-in ban takes effect, forcing people to eat in the streets.
28/7/20 HKU Council decides to dismiss Benny Tai with immediate effect.
27/7/20 The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 2 people and imposes all-day dine-in ban.
25/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 126 local infections with coronavirus disease, while over 100 patients are waiting to be admitted to hospital.
19/7/20 The government announces that some civil servants will work from home and makes wearing of masks mandatory in indoor public places.
13/7/20 The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 4 people and imposes dine-in ban during nighttime.
6/7/20 The implementation rules for the national security law are gazetted by the government.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.1 marks. Her net popularity is negative 48 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 28.5 marks and his net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.5 marks and his net popularity is negative 18 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.8 marks and her net popularity is negative 56 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, only net approval rate of Kevin Yeung has gone up while the other 12 have all gone down. Those of Sophia Chan, Erick Tsang, Law Chi-kwong, Alfred Sit, Edward Yau and Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling error, down by 17, 13, 10, 9, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. The net approval rates of Michael Wong and Law Chi-kwong have registered historical lows since they took office.

Detailed Findings

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