POP releases the latest social indicators as well as rankings of people’s most familiar political figures

Press Release on August 18, 2020

POP releases the latest social indicators as well as
rankings of people’s most familiar political figures

Special Announcements

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the survey of the 5 core social indicators will be increased to once a month from the second half of this year, while the remaining 20 or so non-core social indicators, freedom and rule of law sub-indicators will remain to be run on a half-yearly cycle.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early August. Latest results show that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law”, “stability” and “democracy”. Compared with a month ago, ratings of “prosperity”, “stability” and “democracy” have dropped significantly. Meanwhile, all five indicators have registered all-time record lows since the survey began in 1997. As for people’s most familiar political figures, the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Leung Chun-ying, Joshua Wong, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip, Alvin Yeung, Donald Tsang, Starry Lee and Martin Lee. Among them, the percentages of respondents that mentioned Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong and Alvin Yeung have registered their new record high. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 6 political figures remain in the top 10. Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Alvin Yeung and Starry Lee. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam, Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa and Regina Ip are people’s most familiar local political figures in the long run. The effective response rate of the survey is 64.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4% and that of ratings is +/-0.26 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 3-6/8/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,001 (including 500 landline and 501 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 64.4%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.26 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Social Indicators

Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:

Date of survey 6-9/5/19 16-19/9/19 14-17/4/20 6-9/7/20 3-6/8/20 Latest change
Sample size[5] 553-615 587-669 627-654 598-664 584-619
Response rate 63.2% 69.5% 64.5% 52.4% 64.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Degree of freedom 6.60 6.00[6] 5.58[6] 4.84[6] 4.74+/-0.26 -0.10
Degree of prosperity 6.55 5.87[6] 5.45[6] 5.35 4.19+/-0.20 -1.16[6]
Compliance with the rule of law 6.20 4.41[6] 4.45 4.14 3.80+/-0.24 -0.34
Degree of stability 6.29[6] 4.05[6] 4.44[6] 4.12[6] 3.76+/-0.22 -0.36[6]
Degree of democracy 5.42[6] 4.55[6] 4.61 4.37 3.70+/-0.26 -0.67[6]

[3]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law”, “stability” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.74, 4.19, 3.80, 3.76 and 3.70 respectively. Compared with a month ago, ratings of “prosperity”, “stability” and “democracy” have dropped significantly. Meanwhile, all five indicators have registered all-time record lows since the survey began in 1997.

People’s Most Familiar Political Figures

As for people’s most familiar political figures, in the survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 Hong Kong political figures currently alive whom they knew best. Results of the top 20 figures in the latest survey are summarized below[5]:

Date of survey 18-20/9/18 29/1-8/2/19 1-6/8/19 3-6/2/20 3-6/8/20
Sample size[6] 552 537 560 1,001 647
Response rate 55.6% 63.0% 62.8% 77.6% 64.4%
Latest findings % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank
Carrie Lam 38% 1 35% 1 31% 1 31% 1 61+/-4% 1
Matthew Cheung 7% 15 6% 15 9% 15 8% 17 23+/-3% 2
Leung Chun-ying 26% 3 26% 4 25% 3 21% 4 22+/-3% 3
Joshua Wong 4% 31 4% 21 7% 21 8% 18 19+/-3% 4
Tung Chee-hwa 23% 4 29% 3 27% 2 25% 3 18+/-3% 5
Regina Ip 15% 8 13% 7 16% 6 14% 5 17+/-3% 6
Alvin Yeung 4% 27 5% 18 12% 10 10% 12 15+/-3% 7
Donald Tsang 28% 2 33% 2 21% 4 27% 2 13+/-3% 8
Starry Lee 6% 22 6% 14 9% 16 9% 13 12+/-3% 9
Martin Lee 18% 6 14% 5 15% 8 13% 6 12+/-3% 10
Paul Chan 9% 12 11% 10 8% 19 9% 14 11+/-3% 11
Teresa Cheng 2% 45 3% 30 6% 23 6% 21 11+/-2% 12
Tam Yiu-chung 6% 19 2% 39 2% 1% 10+/-2% 13
Jasper Tsang 16% 7 8% 12 12% 12 12% 9 9+/-2% 14
Anson Chan 8% 14 11% 9 20% 5 12% 7 9+/-2% 15
Leung Kwok-hung 19% 5 12% 8 8% 17 10% 10 8+/-2% 16
Chris Tang 3% 39 8+/-2% 17
Junius Ho 12% 11 3% 34 8+/-2% 18
Sophia Chan 2% 45 1% 7% 19 7+/-2% 19
Roy Kwong 1% 2% 46 15% 7 10% 11 6+/-2% 20

[5]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered. For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th would be considered not on the list.

[6]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

Survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Leung Chun-ying, Joshua Wong, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip, Alvin Yeung, Donald Tsang, Starry Lee and Martin Lee, followed by Paul Chan, Teresa Cheng, Tam Yiu-chung, Jasper Tsang, Anson Chan, Leung Kwok-hung, Chris Tang, Junius Ho, Sophia Chan and Roy Kwong as rank eleventh to twentieth respectively. Among them, the percentages of respondents that mentioned Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Alvin Yeung, Teresa Cheng, Chris Tang and Sophia Chan have registered new record high.

The purpose of the “people’s most familiar political figures” survey is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 6 political figures remain in the top 10. Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Alvin Yeung and Starry Lee.

It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.

Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

Overall rank 2-5/11/15──3-6/2/20 3-5/5/16──3-6/8/20
Political figures Average rank
for 10 surveys[7]
Political figures Average rank
for 10 surveys
[7]
1 Carrie Lam 1.8 Carrie Lam 1.8
2 Leung Chun-ying 2.3 Leung Chun-ying 2.5
3 Donald Tsang 3.8 Donald Tsang 4.2
4 Tung Chee-hwa 5.3 Tung Chee-hwa 5.0
5 Regina Ip 6.4[8] Regina Ip 6.2
6 Leung Kwok-hung 6.4[8] Leung Kwok-hung 7.5
7 John Tsang 7.1 Jasper Tsang 8.7
8 Jasper Tsang 7.6 Martin Lee 9.3
9 Martin Lee 9.8 John Tsang 9.4
10 Anson Chan 11.1 Anson Chan 11.5
11 Wong Yuk-man 15.7 Starry Lee 13.6
12 Starry Lee 16.4 Paul Chan 17.1
13 Henry Tang 16.7 Alvin Yeung 18.3[8]
14 Paul Chan 17.7 Wong Yuk-man 18.3[8]
15 Michael Tien 18.9 Henry Tang 18.4
16 James Tien 21.1 Michael Tien 20.7
17 Emily Lau 22.4 Matthew Cheung 21.4
18 Alvin Yeung 22.6 Joshua Wong 23.6
19 Rita Fan 22.7 Rita Fan 23.7[8]
20 Matthew Cheung 24.5 James Tien 23.7[8]

[7]     For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.

[8]     The average ranks for 10 surveys are identical.

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam has the highest overall rank, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa, while Regina Ip, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee, John Tsang and Anson Chan rank 5th to 10th overall.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 6 February, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 August, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

1/8/20 The first team from the National Health Commission arrives in Hong Kong.
31/7/20 The government postpones the Legislative Council election for a year.
30/7/20 Nominations of 12 democrats for Legislative Council election are invalidated.
29/7/20 All-day dine-in ban takes effect, forcing people to eat in the streets.
28/7/20 HKU Council decides to dismiss Benny Tai with immediate effect.
27/7/20 The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 2 people and imposes all-day dine-in ban.
24/7/20 US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on China policy, while China orders the US to close its consulate in Chengdu.
19/7/20 The government announces that some civil servants will work from home and makes wearing of masks mandatory in indoor public places.
15/7/20 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act.
13/7/20 The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 4 people and imposes dine-in ban during nighttime.
4/7/20 Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review.
3/7/20 The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law.
1/7/20 Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest.
30/6/20 The national security law is passed and comes into effect.
16/6/20 The government relaxes restrictions and allows group gatherings of up to 50 people.
12/6/20 The Central Government criticizes groups for organizing referendum for class boycott.
9/6/20 The government announces investment of $27.3 billion in Cathay Pacific Airways to avoid its collapse.
8/6/20 The government announces the arrangements for $10,000 cash payout.
8/6/20 Zhang Xiaoming delivers speech at a webinar to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the Basic Law’s promulgation.
4/6/20 June 4 vigils are held in various districts.
3/6/20 Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam.
29/5/20 Donald Trump announces new measures toward China and Hong Kong and says China has replaced one country, two systems with one country, one system.
27/5/20 Over 360 people are arrested in protests against the National Anthem Bill and the national security law.
24/5/20 People rally against the national security law on Hong Kong Island. Over 180 people are arrested.
21/5/20 National People’s Congress will deliberate on national security law in Hong Kong.
19/5/20 Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 5.2%.
18/5/20 Starry Lee Wai-king is elected the chairperson of the House Committee of the Legislative Council.
15/5/20 Independent Police Complaints Council releases a report saying there is no evidence of casualties in the Prince Edward MTR incident on August 31.
11/5/20 Ocean Park seeks $5.4 billion government bailout to avoid shut down.
8/5/20 Eleven democrats get thrown out after conflicts occur in a meeting of the House Committee of the Legislative Council.
3/5/20 The government will distribute reusable masks.
21/4/20 The government announces the appointment of five Directors of Bureaux.
18/4/20 15 pan-democrats including Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai are arrested.
15/4/20 Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security.
14/4/20 Carrie Lam claims the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office did not interfere in Hong Kong affairs.
13/4/20 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok.
9/4/20 The government launches a subsidy scheme involving $80 billion to keep workers in employment.
8/4/20 The government announces relief measures involving over $130 billion to combat the pandemic.
1/4/20 The government orders karaoke lounges, mahjong parlors and nightclubs to close.
27/3/20 The government announces the ban on gathering with more than 4 people.
23/3/20 The government bans bars and restaurants from selling alcohol.
23/3/20 The government announces ban on non-residents arrivals at the airport from entering Hong Kong.
17/3/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from any foreign country will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
15/3/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from the UK and the US will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
4/3/20 The first batch of government-chartered flights bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei.
28/2/20 Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum.
26/2/20 Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.
19/2/20 The first batch of Hong Kong people on the cruise Diamond Princess return to Hong Kong by a charter flight.
13/2/20 Xia Baolong is appointed the Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office.
7/2/20 The policy of putting people entering Hong Kong from mainland China in a 14-day quarantine takes effect.

Data Analysis

Survey shows that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law”, “stability” and “democracy”. Compared with a month ago, ratings of “prosperity”, “stability” and “democracy” have dropped significantly. Meanwhile, all five indicators have registered all-time record lows since the survey began in 1997.

As for people’s most familiar political figures, the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Leung Chun-ying, Joshua Wong, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip, Alvin Yeung, Donald Tsang, Starry Lee and Martin Lee. Among them, the percentages of respondents that mentioned Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong and Alvin Yeung have registered their new record high. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 6 political figures remain in the top 10. Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Alvin Yeung and Starry Lee. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam, Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa and Regina Ip are people’s most familiar local political figures in the long run.

Detailed Findings

Click to access the login or register cheese