POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments

Press Release on August 11, 2020

POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments

Special Announcements

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the popularity survey of Directors of Bureaux will be thinned out from the second half of this year. Therefore, today’s release only includes the popularity figures of CE and 3 Secretaries of Departments.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early August. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 26.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 54 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.0 marks and his net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.0 marks and his net popularity is negative 20 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 22.2 marks and her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 64.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 3-6/8/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,001 (including 500 landline and 501 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 64.4%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 19-21/5/20 1-4/6/20 15-18/6/20 6-9/7/20 20-24/7/20 3-6/8/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,001 1,002 1,002 1,001 1,029 1,001
Response rate 55.6% 64.3% 54.1% 52.4% 62.5% 64.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 28.3 27.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 26.9+/-2.1 -2.0
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 19% 18% 22% 23% 18%[3] 19+/-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 73% 72% 70% 69% 72% 72+/-3% +1%
Net approval rate -54% -54% -48% -46% -53% -54+/-5%

[3]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 27/2-3/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 4-6/5/20 1-4/6/20 6-9/7/20 3-6/8/20 Latest change
Sample size 646-675 672-685 574-609 562-655 524-596 503-655
Response rate 67.1% 66.7% 62.5% 64.3% 52.4% 64.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 26.1[4] 29.5[4] 30.1 30.6 29.9 29.0+/-2.4 -0.9
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
13% 16% 17% 19% 19% 16+/-3% -3%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
56% 50%[4] 49% 51% 52% 55+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -42% -34%[4] -32% -32% -33% -39+/-6% -6%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 32.3[4] 32.4 33.3 34.3 37.8 37.0+/-2.5 -0.8
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 22%[4] 23% 25% 26% 28% 26+/-4% -2%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 50%[4] 49% 49% 47% 44% 46+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -28%[4] -26% -24% -21% -16% -20+/-7% -4%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 16.7 18.7 20.2 18.7 20.3 22.2+/-2.7 +1.9
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 8% 7% 8% 11% 10% 15+/-3% +4%[4]
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 71% 70% 69% 72% 68% 67+/-4%
Net approval rate -64% -63% -61% -61% -57% -53+/-7% +5%

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 26.9 marks. Her approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.0 marks. His approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 55%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.0 marks, approval rate 26%, disapproval rate 46%, thus a net popularity of negative 20 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 22.2 marks, approval rate 15%, disapproval rate 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. The popularity figures of the Secretaries of Departments have not changed much from a month ago.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 6 to 9 July, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 August, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/8/20 Hong Kong confirms 91 local infections with coronavirus disease.
5/8/20 Hong Kong confirms 82 local infections with coronavirus disease.
3/8/20 Hong Kong confirms 80 local infections with coronavirus disease.
1/8/20 The first team from the National Health Commission arrives in Hong Kong.
31/7/20 The government postpones the Legislative Council election for a year.
30/7/20 Nominations of 12 democrats for Legislative Council election are invalidated.
29/7/20 All-day dine-in ban takes effect, forcing people to eat in the streets.
28/7/20 HKU Council decides to dismiss Benny Tai with immediate effect.
27/7/20 The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 2 people and imposes all-day dine-in ban.
26/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 103 local infections with coronavirus disease.
25/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 126 local infections with coronavirus disease, while over 100 patients are waiting to be admitted to hospital.
24/7/20 US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on China policy, while China orders the US to close its consulate in Chengdu.
23/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 111 local infections with coronavirus disease.
22/7/20 The US orders China to close its consulate in Houston within 72 hours.
22/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 105 local infections with coronavirus disease.
21/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 58 local infections with coronavirus disease.
20/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 66 local infections with coronavirus disease.
19/7/20 The government announces that some civil servants will work from home and makes wearing of masks mandatory in indoor public places.
18/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 60 local infections with coronavirus disease.
17/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 50 local infections with coronavirus disease.
16/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 63 local infections with coronavirus disease.
15/7/20 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act.
14/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 40 local infections with coronavirus disease.
13/7/20 The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 4 people and imposes dine-in ban during nighttime.
12/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 30 local infections with coronavirus disease.
11/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 16 local infections with coronavirus disease.
10/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 32 local infections with coronavirus disease.
9/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 34 local infections with coronavirus disease.
8/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 19 local infections with coronavirus disease.
7/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease.
6/7/20 The implementation rules for the national security law are gazetted by the government.

Data Analysis

Survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 26.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 54 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.0 marks and his net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.0 marks and his net popularity is negative 20 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 22.2 marks and her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

Detailed Findings

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