POP releases popularity of cross-strait political figures

Press Release on August 4, 2020

POP releases popularity of cross-strait political figures

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 514 and 510 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late July. Conducted before Lee Teng-hui passed away, the latest survey revealed that among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji continued to rank first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 61.6 marks. The 2nd to 10th ranks went to Tsai Ing-wen, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou, Xi Jinping, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Jiang Zemin has rebounded significantly, while that of Han Kuo-yu continued to drop significantly. Besides, Lee Teng-hui and Han Zheng obtained support ratings of 36.7 and 33.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 56.5%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.5 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Naming stage Rating stage
Date of survey : 20-21/7/2020 22-24/7/2020
Sample size[1] : 514 (including 258 landline and 256 mobile samples) 510 (including 267 landline and 243 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 66.8% 56.5%
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.5 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 contemporary leaders in China or Taiwan whom they knew best. The top 12 nominees then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political figures using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom ones in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 cross-strait political figures. Recent ratings of the top 10 cross-strait political figures are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:

Date of survey 20-23/7/18 17-19/7/19 14-15/1/20 22-24/7/20 Latest change
Sample size[4] 500 557-690 508 510
Response rate 50.8% 59.8% 57.7% 56.5%
Latest findings[5] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
Zhu Rongji 66.8{1} 65.3{1} 59.0{1}[6] 61.6+/-2.8{1} 80.2% +2.6
Tsai Ing-wen 43.0{8} 47.4{6}[6] 57.6{2}[6] 57.6+/-2.8{2} 90.2%
Wen Jiabao 59.1{3} 57.2{2} 51.7{3}[6] 54.4+/-2.4{3} 88.3% +2.7
Hu Jintao 56.2{6} 53.0{4}[6] 48.4{4}[6] 51.1+/-2.6{4} 87.0% +2.7
Li Keqiang 57.3{4} 50.5{5}[6] 44.6{6}[6] 46.4+/-2.9{5} 86.4% +1.8
Jiang Zemin 45.9{7} 43.8{8} 38.3{8}[6] 46.2+/-2.7{6} 82.9% +7.9[6]
Ma Ying-jeou 56.7{5}[6] 53.2{3}[6] 44.8{5}[6] 45.9+/-2.4{7} 85.6% +1.1
Xi Jinping 59.3{2} 47.1{7}[6] 39.9{7}[6] 40.7+/-3.5{8} 94.3% +0.8
Han Kuo-yu 40.1[7] 28.6{9}[6] 24.6+/-2.6{9} 78.8% -4.0[6]
Chen Shui-bian 24.7{10} 22.8{10} 22.9{10} 23.1+/-2.1{10} 86.7% +0.3
Lee Teng-hui 39.9[7] 38.2{9} 37.0[7] 36.7+/-2.7[7] 70.1% -0.3
Han Zheng 41.9[7] 33.2+/-3.4[7] 54.3%
Soong Chu-yu 32.0[7]
Li Peng 38.5{9}
Wang Qishan 56.2[7]

[3]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[4]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[5]     Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[6]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[7]     Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

The latest survey conducted before Lee Teng-hui had passed away revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji ranked first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 61.6 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Tsai Ing-wen, Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao with scores of 57.6, 54.4 and 51.1 marks respectively. Li Keqiang, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping occupied the 5th to 8th ranks with 46.4, 46.2, 45.9 and 40.7 marks correspondingly. The 9th to 10th ranks fell to Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 24.6 and 23.1 marks. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Jiang Zemin has rebounded significantly, while that of Han Kuo-yu continued to drop significantly. For this latest survey, Lee Teng-hui and Han Zheng obtained support ratings of 36.7 and 33.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.

It should be noted that our list of “top 10 cross-strait political figures” only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 14 to 15 January, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 22 to 24 July, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/7/20 US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on China policy, while China orders the US to close its consulate in Chengdu.
22/7/20 The US orders China to close its consulate in Houston within 72 hours.
15/7/20 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act.
3/7/20 The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law.
30/6/20 The national security law is passed and comes into effect.
13/6/20 Coronavirus outbreak occurs in Beijing.
12/6/20 The Central Government criticizes groups for organizing referendum for class boycott.
8/6/20 Zhang Xiaoming delivers speech at a webinar to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the Basic Law’s promulgation.
6/6/20 Kaohsiung residents voted to recall mayor Han Kuo-yu.
4/6/20 June 4 vigils are held in various districts.
3/6/20 Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam.
29/5/20 Donald Trump announces new measures toward China and Hong Kong and says China has replaced one country, two systems with one country, one system.
20/5/20 Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is sworn into office.
21/4/20 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office issues multiple statements to criticize Dennis Kwok.
15/4/20 Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security.
13/4/20 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok.
10/3/20 Xi Jinping visits Wuhan.
13/2/20 Xia Baolong is appointed the Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office.
23/1/20 A lockdown of Wuhan is announced.
20/1/20 Wuhan pneumonia spreads rapidly in China.

Data Analysis

The latest survey conducted before Lee Teng-hui passed away revealed that, among the ten Mainland China and Taiwan political figures most well-known to Hong Kong people, Zhu Rongji continued to rank first in terms of popularity rating, attaining 61.6 marks. The 2nd to 10th ranks went to Tsai Ing-wen, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Li Keqiang, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou, Xi Jinping, Han Kuo-yu and Chen Shui-bian. Compared to the previous survey, the rating of Jiang Zemin has rebounded significantly, while that of Han Kuo-yu continued to drop significantly. Besides, Lee Teng-hui and Han Zheng obtained support ratings of 36.7 and 33.2 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates.

Detailed Findings

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