POP releases popularities of CE and SAR Government and Public Sentiment Index

Press Release on July 28, 2020

POP releases popularities of CE and SAR Government
and Public Sentiment Index

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,029 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of July. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points, registering a drop of 7 percentage points since half a month ago, but the change is within the sampling error. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 46 percentage points, increased by 8 percentage points since a month ago, and reached a record high since May 2019, but the change has not gone beyond the sampling error. The net trust value of the HKSAR Government is negative 35 percentage points, which is more or less the same as last month. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are negative 51, negative 52 and negative 70 percentage points respectively. People’s satisfaction with the political condition has improved significantly by 12 percentage points from a month ago and registered a record high since May 2019. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 59.1, slightly up by 0.1 points from early July. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 20-24/7/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,029 (including 528 landline and 501 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 62.5%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and SAR Government

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 4-6/5/20 19-21/5/20 1-4/6/20 15-18/6/20 6-9/7/20 20-24/7/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,004 1,001 1,002 1,002 1,001 1,029
Response rate 62.5% 55.6% 64.3% 54.1% 52.4% 62.5%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 27.9 28.3 27.8 29.0 29.0 28.9+/-2.1
Vote of confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
17% 19% 18% 22% 23% 18+/-2% -5%[4]
Vote of no confidence in
CE Carrie Lam
73% 73% 72% 70% 69% 72+/-3% +2%
Net approval rate -56% -54% -54% -48% -46% -53+/-5% -7%

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 17-19/2/20 17-20/3/20 14-17/4/20 19-21/5/20 15-18/6/20 20-24/7/20 Latest change
Sample size[5] 616-620 613-622 624-664 593-616 620-629 611-615
Response rate 64.6% 62.9% 64.5% 55.6% 54.1% 62.5%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[6] 9%[7] 17%[7] 21% 19% 17% 19+/-3% +2%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[6] 83%[7] 68%[7] 68% 67% 71% 65+/-4% -6%[7]
Net satisfaction rate -74%[7] -51%[7] -47% -49% -54% -46+/-6% +8%
Mean value[6] 1.6[7] 2.0[7] 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0+/-0.1 +0.1
Trust in HKSAR Government[6] 14%[7] 25%[7] 29% 27% 27% 25+/-3% -1%
Distrust in HKSAR Government[6] 76%[7] 62%[7] 60% 63% 59% 61+/-4% +2%
Net trust -62%[7] -37%[7] -32% -36% -32% -35+/-7% -4%
Mean value[6] 1.8[7] 2.3[7] 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2+/-0.1

[5]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[6]     Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[7]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 17-19/2/20 17-20/3/20 14-17/4/20 19-21/5/20 15-18/6/20 20-24/7/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,008 1,004 1,005 1,001 1,002 1,029
Response rate 64.6% 62.9% 64.5% 55.6% 54.1% 62.5%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[8]
9%[9] 16%[9] 14% 12% 12% 15+/-2% +3%[9]
Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[8]
79%[9] 67%[9] 70% 73% 66%[9] 66+/-3%
Net satisfaction rate -69%[9] -51%[9] -56% -61% -54%[9] -51+/-5% +4%
Mean value[8] 1.8[9] 2.1[9] 2.0 1.9[9] 2.1[9] 2.1+/-0.1
Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[8]
9%[9] 12%[9] 11% 9% 12% 13+/-2% +1%
Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[8]
73%[9] 70% 72% 75% 64%[9] 64+/-3% +1%
Net satisfaction rate -64%[9] -58%[9] -61% -66% -52%[9] -52+/-4% +1%
Mean value[8] 1.9[9] 2.1[9] 2.0 1.9[9] 2.2[9] 2.1+/-0.1 -0.1
Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[8]
3%[9] 6%[9] 7% 3%[9] 3% 8+/-2% +5%[9]
Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[8]
86% 80%[9] 81% 88%[9] 84%[9] 78+/-3% -7%[9]
Net satisfaction rate -83% -74%[9] -74% -86%[9] -81%[9] -70+/-4% +12%[9]
Mean value[8] 1.4 1.6[9] 1.6 1.4[9] 1.5[9] 1.6+/-0.1 +0.2[9]

[8]     Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[9]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.9 marks, which has not changed much from half a month ago. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points, registering a drop of 7 percentage points since half a month ago, but the change is within the sampling error.

Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 19%, whereas 65% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 46 percentage points. The mean score is 2.0, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Net satisfaction has increased by 8 percentage points since a month ago, registering a record high since May 2019, but the change has not gone beyond the sampling error. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 25% of the respondents expressed trust, 61% expressed distrust. The net trust value is negative 35 percentage points. The mean score is 2.2, meaning close to “quite distrust” in general. These figures have not changed much from a month ago.

As for people’s satisfaction with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 15%, 13% and 8% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 51, negative 52 and negative 70 percentage points respectively. The mean scores of livelihood condition and economic condition are both 2.1, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general; that of political condition is 1.6, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. People’s satisfaction with the political condition has improved significantly from a month ago and registered record high since May 2019.

Public Sentiment Index

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.

The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

Latest figure Public Sentiment Index
(PSI): 59.1 (+0.1)
Government Appraisal
(GA): 62.6 (-0.2)
Society Appraisal
(SA): 56.9 (+0.3)

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

Cut-off date 6/5/20 21/5/20 4/6/20 18/6/20 9/7/20 24/7/20 Latest change
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) 56.5 50.8 50.6 58.9 59.0 59.1 +0.1
Government Appraisal (GA) 62.8 60.9 60.7 62.6 62.8 62.6 -0.2
Rating of CE 27.9 28.3 27.8 29.0 29.0 28.9
Net approval rate of CE -56% -54% -54% -48% -46% -53% -7%
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG 2.0[10] 2.0 2.0[10] 1.9 1.9[10] 2.0 +0.1
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG 2.3[10] 2.2 2.2[10] 2.3 2.3[10] 2.2
Society Appraisal (SA) 52.2[10] 43.7 43.7[10] 56.5 56.6[10] 56.9 +0.3
People’s satisfaction with political condition 1.6[10] 1.4 1.4[10] 1.5 1.5[10] 1.6 +0.2
Weighting index of political condition 0.34[10] 0.34[10] 0.34[10] 0.34[10] 0.33 0.33[10]
People’s satisfaction with economic condition 2.0[10] 1.9 1.9[10] 2.2 2.2[10] 2.1 -0.1
Weighting index of economic condition 0.32[10] 0.32[10] 0.32[10] 0.32[10] 0.33 0.33[10]
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition 2.0[10] 1.9 1.9[10] 2.1 2.1[10] 2.1
Weighting index of livelihood condition 0.34[10] 0.34[10] 0.34[10] 0.34[10] 0.35 0.35[10]

[10]  POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

Score value Percentile Score value Percentile
140-200 Highest 1% 0-60 Lowest 1%
125 Highest 5% 75 Lowest 5%
120 Highest 10% 80 Lowest 10%
110 Highest 25% 90 Lowest 25%
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below

The latest PSI stands at 59.1, up by 0.1 points from early July. It can be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 0.2 points to 62.6, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 0.3 points to 56.9. They can both be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 15 to 18 June, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 24 July, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/7/20 US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on China policy, while China orders the US to close its consulate in Chengdu.
23/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 111 local infections with coronavirus disease.
22/7/20 The US orders China to close its consulate in Houston within 72 hours.
22/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 105 local infections with coronavirus disease.
21/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 58 local infections with coronavirus disease.
20/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 66 local infections with coronavirus disease.
19/7/20 The government announces that some civil servants will work from home and makes wearing of masks mandatory in indoor public places.
18/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 60 local infections with coronavirus disease.
17/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 50 local infections with coronavirus disease.
16/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 63 local infections with coronavirus disease.
15/7/20 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act.
14/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 40 local infections with coronavirus disease.
13/7/20 The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 4 people and imposes dine-in ban during nighttime.
12/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 30 local infections with coronavirus disease.
11/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 16 local infections with coronavirus disease.
10/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 32 local infections with coronavirus disease.
9/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 34 local infections with coronavirus disease.
8/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 19 local infections with coronavirus disease.
7/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease.
6/7/20 The implementation rules for the national security law are gazetted by the government.
5/7/20 Local infections with coronavirus appear in Hong Kong again.
4/7/20 Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review.
3/7/20 The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law.
1/7/20 Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest.
30/6/20 The national security law is passed and comes into effect.
27/6/20 Media reports on information on the penalities of the national security law.
26/6/20 The US Senate passes the Hong Kong Autonomy Act.
20/6/20 Some contents of the national security law have been revealed.
18/6/20 The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress discusses the national security law.
16/6/20 The government relaxes restrictions and allows group gatherings of up to 50 people.
15/6/20 The Central Government will have enforcement powers regarding the national security law.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points, registering a drop of 7 percentage points since half a month ago, but the change is within the sampling error. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 46 percentage points, increased by 8 percentage points since a month ago, and reached a record high since May 2019, but the change has not gone beyond the sampling error. The net trust value of the HKSAR Government is negative 35 percentage points, which is more or less the same as last month. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are negative 51, negative 52 and negative 70 percentage points respectively. People’s satisfaction with the political condition has improved significantly by 12 percentage points from a month ago and registered a record high since May 2019.

As for the PSI, the latest figure is 59.1, slightly up by 0.1 points from early July.

Detailed Findings

Click to access the login or register cheese