POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

 Press Release on July 17, 2020

POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early July. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 46 percentage points. Both popularity figures have remained basically the same as those half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 33 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.8 marks and his net popularity is negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone up while 1 has gone down. That of Edward Yau has significantly recovered by 10 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 52.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 6-9/7/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,001 (including 492 landline and 509 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 52.4%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.9 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 14-17/4/20 4-6/5/20 19-21/5/20 1-4/6/20 15-18/6/20 6-9/7/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,005 1,004 1,001 1,002 1,002 1,001
Response rate 64.5% 62.5% 55.6% 64.3% 54.1% 52.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 27.7 27.9 28.3 27.8 29.0 29.0+/-2.3 -0.1
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 18% 17% 19% 18% 22% 23+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 72% 73% 73% 72% 70% 69+/-3% -1%
Net approval rate -54% -56% -54% -54% -48% -46+/-5% +2%

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 26/2/20[5] 27/2-3/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 4-6/5/20 1-4/6/20 6-9/7/20 Latest change
Sample size[6] 1,038 646-675 672-685 574-609 562-655 524-596
Response rate 75.5% 67.1% 66.7% 62.5% 64.3% 52.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 26.1[7] 29.5[7] 30.1 30.6 29.9+/-2.6 -0.7
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
13% 16% 17% 19% 19+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
56% 50%[7] 49% 51% 52+/-4% +1%
Net approval rate -42% -34%[7] -32% -32% -33+/-6% -1%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 43.5[7] 32.3[7] 32.4 33.3 34.3 37.8+/-2.9 +3.5
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 27[7] 22%[7] 23% 25% 26% 28+/-4% +2%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 41[7] 50%[7] 49% 49% 47% 44+/-4% -3%
Net approval rate -14%[7] -28%[7] -26% -24% -21% -16+/-7% +5%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 16.7 18.7 20.2 18.7 20.3+/-2.5 +1.6
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 8% 7% 8% 11% 10+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 71% 70% 69% 72% 68+/-4% -4%
Net approval rate -64% -63% -61% -61% -57+/-6% +4%

[5]     The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[6]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[7]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[8]:

Date of survey 30/3-2/4/20 4-6/5/20 1-4/6/20 6-9/7/20 Latest change
Sample size[9] 576-631 611-659 577-1,002 584-634
Response rate 66.7% 62.5% 64.3% 52.4%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 23% 32%[10] 32% 30+/-4% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 44%[10] 37%[10] 37% 34+/-4% -3%
Net approval rate -21% -5%[10] -5% -4+/-6% +1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 23% 29%[10] 20%[10] 24+/-3% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 28% 23% 28%[10] 29+/-4% +1%
Net approval rate -5% 7%[10] -7%[10] -4+/-6% +3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 19% 16% 20+/-3% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 20% 22% 25+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -1% -6% -5+/-5% +2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 20% 18% 23+/-3% +5%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 23% 28%[10] 30+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -3% -10%[10] -7+/-6% +3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 17% 20% 17% 19+/-3% +2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 27% 23% 29%[10] 29+/-4%
Net approval rate -10% -4% -11% -9+/-6% +2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 26% 26% 26% 29+/-4% +2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 37% 38% 41% 39+/-4% -2%
Net approval rate -11% -12% -15% -10+/-7% +5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 19% 18% 19+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 22% 33%[10] 32+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -3% -15%[10] -13+/-6% +2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 19% 21% 23+/-4% +3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 37% 42% 41+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -18% -21% -18+/-6% +3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 26% 23% 20% 24+/-3% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 35% 42%[10] 48%[10] 43+/-4% -5%
Net approval rate -9% -19%[10] -28% -18+/-6% +10%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 24%[10] 22% 16%[10] 19+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 42% 42% 45% 43+/-4% -2%
Net approval rate -18% -20% -29%[10] -24+/-6% +5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 25% 21% 21+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 34% 39% 45+/-4% +6%[10]
Net approval rate -9% -18%[10] -24+/-6% -6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 18%[10] 17% 23%[10] 26+/-3% +2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 59%[10] 64%[10] 60% 59+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -41%[10] -47% -37%[10] -33+/-7% +4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 18% 18% 13%[10] 15+/-3% +2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 53% 54% 64%[10] 62+/-4% -2%
Net approval rate -36% -35% -51%[10] -47+/-6% +4%

[8]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[10]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her approval rate is 23%, disapproval rate 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 46 percentage points. All popularity figures have remained basically the same as those half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.9 marks. His approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 52%, giving a net popularity of negative 33 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.8 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 44%, thus a net popularity of negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.3 marks, approval rate 10%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, followed by Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung.

Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone up while 1 has gone down. That of Edward Yau has significantly recovered by 10 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Law Chi-kwong, Paul Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Edward Yau, Erick Tsang, Alfred Sit, Patrick Nip, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Christopher Hui and Michael Wong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Kevin Yeung, John Lee and Matthew Cheung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Nil
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Nil
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (30%)

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (29%)

FS Paul Chan Mo-po (28%)

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (24%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (24%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang Kwok-wai (23%)

Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit Wing-hang (23%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (21%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (19%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui Ying-wai (19%)

 
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%

ranked by their approval rates[11]

the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu (20%, 45%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (19%, 48%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%

ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (62%)

Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (59%)

CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (52%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%

ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]

CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (69%)

SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (68%)

[11]  If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 1 to 4 June, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 9 July, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

9/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 34 local infections with coronavirus disease.
8/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 19 local infections with coronavirus disease.
7/7/20 Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease.
6/7/20 The implementation rules for the national security law are gazetted by the government.
5/7/20 Local infections with coronavirus appear in Hong Kong again.
4/7/20 Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review.
3/7/20 The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law.
1/7/20 Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest.
30/6/20 The national security law is passed and comes into effect.
29/6/20 The national security law will be passed very soon.
27/6/20 Media reports on information on the penalities of the national security law.
26/6/20 The US Senate passes the Hong Kong Autonomy Act.
21/6/20 Media says the national security law will be passed soon.
20/6/20 Some contents of the national security law have been revealed.
18/6/20 The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress discusses the national security law.
16/6/20 The government relaxes restrictions and allows group gatherings of up to 50 people.
15/6/20 The Central Government will have enforcement powers regarding the national security law.
12/6/20 The Central Government criticizes groups for organizing referendum for class boycott.
9/6/20 The government announces investment of $27.3 billion in Cathay Pacific Airways to avoid its collapse.
8/6/20 The government announces the arrangements for $10,000 cash payout.
8/6/20 Zhang Xiaoming delivers speech at a webinar to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the Basic Law’s promulgation.
4/6/20 June 4 vigils are held in various districts.
3/6/20 Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam.
2/6/20 Local infections with coronavirus appear in Hong Kong again. Prohibition on group gathering is extended for 14 days.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 46 percentage points. Both popularity figures have remained basically the same as those half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 33 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.8 marks and his net popularity is negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone up while 1 has gone down. That of Edward Yau has significantly recovered by 10 percentage points.

Detailed Findings

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