POP releases HKSAR anniversary survey

Press Release on June 30, 2020

POP releases HKSAR anniversary survey

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. The HKSAR anniversary survey conducted by POP this year may be the last of its series, whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-June. Our survey shows that as the 23rd handover anniversary of the HKSAR draws near, compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has recovered significantly by 7 percentage points to 34%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud fell back largely by 8 percentage points to 62%. As for people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong, the figures have also rebounded significantly. The latest proportion of positive appraisal stands at 28%, negative appraisal at 50%, resulting in a net value of negative 21 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 54.1%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 15-18/6/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,002 (including 497 landline and 505 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 54.1%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

The results of the HKSAR anniversary survey are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey 20-23/6/16 19-22/6/17 14-21/6/18 17-20/6/19 15-18/6/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,006 1,007 1,000 1,015 1,002
Response rate 69.5% 71.2% 59.6% 58.7% 54.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Proud of becoming a national citizen of China 31%[5] 34% 38%[5] 27%[5] 34+/-3% +7%[5]
Not proud of becoming a national citizen of China 65%[5] 62% 57%[5] 71%[5] 62+/-3% -8%[5]
Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: positive appraisal[4] 27%[5] 35%[5] 36% 23%[5] 28+/-3% +5%[5]
Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: negative appraisal[4] 38%[5] 36% 38% 53%[5] 50+/-3% -3%
Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: net appraisal[4] -11%[5] -2%[5] -2% -30%[5] -21+/-5% +8%[5]
Mean value[4] 2.7[5] 2.9[5] 2.9 2.5[5] 2.6+/-0.1 +0.1

[4]     Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[5]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Results of the latest anniversary survey revealed that 34% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 62% said they did not have such feeling. As for the policies of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 28% of the respondents gave positive feedback, whereas 50% gave negative appraisal, giving a net appraisal of negative 21 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6 marks, meaning between “half-half” and “not quite good” in general.

Data Analysis

As the 23rd handover anniversary of the HKSAR draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has recovered significantly by 7 percentage points to 34%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud fell back largely by 8 percentage points to 62%. As for people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong, the figures have also rebounded significantly. The latest proportion of positive appraisal stands at 28%, negative appraisal at 50%, resulting in a net value of negative 21 percentage points.

Detailed Findings

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