POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Press Release on June 9, 2020

POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. HKPOP today releases the latest popularity figures of Chief Executive and principal officials, of which the latter will be the last round before July 1, 2020. Whether the survey will be continued depends on the amount of public support.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early June. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.8 marks. Her net popularity is negative 54 percentage points. Both popularity figures have remained basically the same as those half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 34.3 marks and his net popularity is negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 18.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 61 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rate of 1 Director has gone up, 11 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Kevin Yeung, Wong Kam-sing, Caspar Tsui, Patrick Nip, Frank Chan, Alfred Sit and John Lee have changed beyond sampling error, down by 16, 14, 12, 9, 9 and 7 percentage points and up by 10 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Edward Yau has registered historical low since he took office. The effective response rate of the survey is 64.3%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 1-4/6/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,002 (including 503 landline and 499 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 64.3%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 17-20/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 14-17/4/20 4-6/5/20 19-21/5/20 1-4/6/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,004 1,005 1,005 1,004 1,001 1,002
Response rate 62.9% 66.7% 64.5% 62.5% 55.6% 64.3%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 22.3 25.5[4] 27.7 27.9 28.3 27.8+/-2.1 -0.5
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 13% 16% 18% 17% 19% 18+/-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 77% 75% 72% 73% 73% 72+/-3%
Net approval rate -64% -60% -54% -56% -54% -54+/-5%

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 3-6/2/20 26/2/20[5] 27/2-3/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 4-6/5/20 1-4/6/20 Latest change
Sample size[6] 569-631 1,038 646-675 672-685 574-609 562-655
Response rate 77.6% 75.5% 67.1% 66.7% 62.5% 64.3%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 22.9 26.1[7] 29.5[7] 30.1 30.6+/-2.4 +0.5
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
12% 13% 16% 17% 19+/-3% +2%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
59% 56% 50%[7] 49% 51+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -47% -42% -34%[7] -32% -32+/-6%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 26.6 43.5[7] 32.3[7] 32.4 33.3 34.3+/-2.5 +1.0
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 19% 27[7] 22%[7] 23% 25% 26+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 55% 41[7] 50%[7] 49% 49% 47+/-4% -2%
Net approval rate -36% -14%[7] -28%[7] -26% -24% -21+/-6% +3%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 15.9 16.7 18.7 20.2 18.7+/-2.4 -1.5
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 9% 8% 7% 8% 11+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 71%[7] 71% 70% 69% 72+/-4% +3%
Net approval rate -61%[7] -64% -63% -61% -61+/-6%

[5]     The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[6]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[7]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[8]:

Date of survey 27/2-3/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 4-6/5/20 1-4/6/20 Latest change
Sample size[9] 595-634 576-631 611-659 577-1,002
Response rate 67.1% 66.7% 62.5% 64.3%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 23% 23% 32%[10] 32+/-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 51% 44%[10] 37%[10] 37+/-4%
Net approval rate -28% -21% -5%[10] -5+/-7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 19% 16+/-3% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 20% 22+/-4% +3%
Net approval rate -1% -6+/-5% -5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 23% 23% 29%[10] 20+/-3% -9%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 31% 28% 23% 28+/-4% +5%[10]
Net approval rate -9% -5% 7%[10] -7+/-6% -14%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 20% 18+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 23% 28+/-3% +5%[10]
Net approval rate -3% -10+/-4% -7%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 16% 17% 20% 17+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 27% 27% 23% 29+/-4% +5%[10]
Net approval rate -11% -10% -4% -11+/-6% -8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 19% 18+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 22% 33+/-4% +11%[10]
Net approval rate -3% -15+/-6% -12%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 24% 26% 26% 26+/-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 41% 37% 38% 41+/-4% +4%
Net approval rate -17% -11% -12% -15+/-7% -3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 25% 21+/-3% -4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 34% 39+/-4% +5%
Net approval rate -9% -18+/-6% -9%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 19% 21+/-4% +1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 37% 42+/-4% +5%
Net approval rate -18% -21+/-7% -4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 23% 26% 23% 20+/-3% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 33%[10] 35% 42%[10] 48+/-4% +6%[10]
Net approval rate -10% -9% -19%[10] -28+/-7% -8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 19% 24%[10] 22% 16+/-2% -6%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 44% 42% 42% 45+/-3% +3%
Net approval rate -25% -18% -20% -29+/-5% -9%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 13% 18%[10] 17% 23+/-3% +6%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 68% 59%[10] 64%[10] 60+/-3% -4%
Net approval rate -54% -41%[10] -47% -37+/-5% +10%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 19% 18% 18% 13+/-3% -6%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 53%[10] 53% 54% 64+/-4% +10%[10]
Net approval rate -34% -36% -35% -51+/-6% -16%[10]

[8]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[10]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.8 marks. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points. All popularity figures have remained basically the same as those half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.6 marks. His approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 51%, giving a net popularity of negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 34.3 marks, approval rate 26%, disapproval rate 47%, thus a net popularity of negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 18.7 marks, approval rate 11%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 61 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, followed by Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung.

Compared to one month ago, the net approval rate of 1 Director has gone up, 11 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Kevin Yeung, Wong Kam-sing, Caspar Tsui, Patrick Nip, Frank Chan, Alfred Sit and John Lee have changed beyond sampling error, down by 16, 14, 12, 9, 9 and 7 percentage points and up by 10 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Edward Yau has registered historical low since he took office.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Law Chi-kwong, Paul Chan, Patrick Nip, Erick Tsang, Edward Yau, Caspar Tsui and Frank Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Wong Kam-sing, Alfred Sit, Michael Wong and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Kevin Yeung, John Lee and Matthew Cheung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Nil
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Nil
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (32%)

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (26%)

FS Paul Chan Mo-po (26%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (21%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang Kwok-wai (21%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (20%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui Ying-wai (18%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (16%)

 
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[11]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate
Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (20%, 48%)

Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit Wing-hang (18%, 46%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (17%, 46%)

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu (16%, 39%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (64%)

Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (60%)

CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (51%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]
CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (72%)

SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (72%)

[11]  If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 4 to 6 May, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 1 to 4 June, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

4/6/20 June 4 vigils are held in various districts.
3/6/20 Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam.
2/6/20 Local infections with coronavirus appear in Hong Kong again. Prohibition on group gathering is extended for 14 days.
29/5/20 Donald Trump announces new measures toward China and Hong Kong and says China has replaced one country, two systems with one country, one system.
28/5/20 National People’s Congress passes resolution to enact national security law in Hong Kong.
27/5/20 Over 360 people are arrested in protests against the National Anthem Bill and the national security law.
24/5/20 People rally against the national security law on Hong Kong Island. Over 180 people are arrested.
22/5/20 The Central Government will set up national security agencies in Hong Kong after implementation of national security law.
21/5/20 National People’s Congress will deliberate on national security law in Hong Kong.
19/5/20 Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 5.2%.
18/5/20 Starry Lee Wai-king is elected the chairperson of the House Committee of the Legislative Council.
16/5/20 Two managers of liberal studies resign from the Hong Kong Examinations and Assessment Authority.
15/5/20 Independent Police Complaints Council releases a report saying there is no evidence of casualties in the Prince Edward MTR incident on August 31.
13/5/20 Two local infections with coronavirus end Hong Kong’s 23-day streak of no local transmission.
12/5/20 The government relaxes eligibility criteria to the Wage Subsidy Scheme.
11/5/20 Ocean Park seeks $5.4 billion government bailout to avoid shut down.
8/5/20 Eleven democrats get thrown out after conflicts occur in a meeting of the House Committee of the Legislative Council.
4/5/20 Hong Kong’s GDP drops by 8.9% year-on-year in the first quarter.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.8 marks. Her net popularity is negative 54 percentage points. Both popularity figures have remained basically the same as those half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 34.3 marks and his net popularity is negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 18.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 61 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rate of 1 Director has gone up, 11 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Kevin Yeung, Wong Kam-sing, Caspar Tsui, Patrick Nip, Frank Chan, Alfred Sit and John Lee have changed beyond sampling error, down by 16, 14, 12, 9, 9 and 7 percentage points and up by 10 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Edward Yau has registered historical low since he took office.

Detailed Findings

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