POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

 

 Press Release on May 13, 2020

POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early May. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 56 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.1 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.3 marks and his net popularity is negative 24 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.2 marks and her net popularity is negative 61 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago. As for the 13 Directors of Bureaux, all but Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing register negative net approval rates, including the 5 newly appointed Directors. Compared to one month ago, among 8 Directors who held the same positions, the net approval rates of 3 have gone up, 4 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing and Edward Yau have changed beyond sampling error, up by 16, up by 12 and down by 10 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Edward Yau has registered historical low since he took office. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 4-6/5/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,004 (including 502 landline and 502 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 62.5%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 17-19/2/20 27/2-3/3/20 17-20/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 14-17/4/20 4-6/5/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,008 1,015 1,004 1,005 1,005 1,004
Response rate 64.6% 67.1% 62.9% 66.7% 64.5% 62.5%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 18.2 22.6[4] 22.3 25.5[4] 27.7 27.9+/-2.0 +0.3
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 9%[4] 13%[4] 13% 16% 18% 17+/-2% -1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 83% 80% 77% 75% 72% 73+/-3% +1%
Net approval rate -74%[4] -66%[4] -64% -60% -54% -56+/-5% -2%

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 3-8/1/20 3-6/2/20 26/2/20[5] 27/2-3/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 4-6/5/20 Latest change
Sample size[6] 608-669 569-631 1,038 646-675 672-685 574-609
Response rate 72.0% 77.6% 75.5% 67.1% 66.7% 62.5%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 25.3 22.9 26.1[7] 29.5[7] 30.1+/-2.3 +0.7
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
14% 12% 13% 16% 17+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
54% 59% 56% 50%[7] 49+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -41% -47% -42% -34%[7] -32+/-6% +2%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 27.6 26.6 43.5[7] 32.3[7] 32.4 33.3+/-2.5 +0.9
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 18% 19% 27[7] 22%[7] 23% 25+/-4% +2%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 56% 55% 41[7] 50%[7] 49% 49+/-4%
Net approval rate -37% -36% -14%[7] -28%[7] -26% -24+/-7% +2%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 14.5 15.9 16.7 18.7 20.2+/-2.3 +1.5
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 8% 9% 8% 7% 8+/-2% +1%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 77% 71%[7] 71% 70% 69+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -69% -61%[7] -64% -63% -61+/-5% +2%

[5]     The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[6]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[7]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[8]:

Date of survey 3-6/2/20 27/2-3/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 4-6/5/20 Latest change
Sample size[9] 578-609 595-634 576-631 611-659
Response rate 77.6% 67.1% 66.7% 62.5%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 26% 23% 23% 29+/-4% +7%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 29% 31% 28% 23+/-3% -5%
Net approval rate -3% -9% -5% 7+/-6% +12%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 19+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui 20+/-3%
Net approval rate -1+/-5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 20+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit 23+/-3%
Net approval rate -3+/-5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 19+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui 22+/-3%
Net approval rate -3+/-5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 15% 16% 17% 20+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 30% 27% 27% 23+/-3% -3%
Net approval rate -15% -11% -10% -4+/-5% +6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 19% 23% 23% 32+/-4% +8%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 54%[10] 51% 44%[10] 37+/-4% -7%[10]
Net approval rate -35%[10] -28% -21% -5+/-7% +16%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 25+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip 34+/-4%
Net approval rate -9+/-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 20% 24% 26% 26+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 36% 41% 37% 38+/-4%
Net approval rate -16% -17% -11% -12+/-6% -1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 19+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang 37+/-4%
Net approval rate -18+/-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 23% 23% 26% 23+/-3% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 41% 33%[10] 35% 42+/-4% +7%[10]
Net approval rate -18% -10% -9% -19+/-6% -10%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 20% 19% 24%[10] 22+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 49% 44% 42% 42+/-4%
Net approval rate -29% -25% -18% -20+/-6% -2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 16%[10] 19% 18% 18+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 59%[10] 53%[10] 53% 54+/-4% +1%
Net approval rate -43%[10] -34% -36% -35+/-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 15% 13% 18%[10] 17+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 65% 68% 59%[10] 64+/-4% +6%[10]
Net approval rate -50% -54% -41%[10] -47+/-6% -7%

[8]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[10]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.9 marks. Her approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 73%, giving a net popularity of negative 56 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.1 marks. His approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 49%, giving a net popularity of negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.3 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 49%, thus a net popularity of negative 24 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.2 marks, approval rate 8%, disapproval rate 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 61 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing out of 13 Directors registers a positive net approval rate. The second position goes to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, followed by Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Security John Lee.

Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 3 Directors have gone up, 4 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing and Edward Yau have changed beyond sampling error, up by 16, up by 12 and down by 10 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Edward Yau has registered historical low since he took office.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Patrick Nip, Paul Chan, Edward Yau, Frank Chan, Erick Tsang and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong, Caspar Tsui and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. John Lee and Kevin Yeung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Nil
 
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Nil
 
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (32%)

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (29%)

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (26%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (25%)

FS Paul Chan Mo-po (25%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (23%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (22%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang Kwok-wai (19%)

CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (17%)

 
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[11]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate
Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit Wing-hang (20%, 43%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (20%, 43%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui Ying-wai (19%, 41%)

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu (19%, 39%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (64%)

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (54%)

 
“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]
CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (73%)

SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (69%)

[11]  If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 30 March to 2 April, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 6 May, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

4/5/20 Hong Kong’s GDP drops by 8.9% year-on-year in the first quarter.
3/5/20 The government will distribute reusable masks.
1/5/20 People gather in multiple districts.
28/4/20 The government announces that cross-boundary students and certain business travelers can be exempted from quarantine.
27/4/20 The government considers relaxing entry restrictions at land borders.
24/4/20 The House Committee of the Legislative Council continues the election of chairman.
21/4/20 The government announces the appointment of five Directors of Bureaux.
21/4/20 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office issues multiple statements to criticize Dennis Kwok.
20/4/20 Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 4.2%.
18/4/20 15 pan-democrats including Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai are arrested.
15/4/20 Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security.
14/4/20 Carrie Lam claims the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office did not interfere in Hong Kong affairs.
13/4/20 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok.
11/4/20 The number of coronavirus disease cases in Hong Kong reaches 1,000.
9/4/20 The government launches a subsidy scheme involving $80 billion to keep workers in employment.
8/4/20 The government announces relief measures involving over $130 billion to combat the pandemic.
1/4/20 The government orders karaoke lounges, mahjong parlors and nightclubs to close.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 56 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.1 marks and his net popularity is negative 32 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.3 marks and his net popularity is negative 24 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.2 marks and her net popularity is negative 61 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.

As for the 13 Directors of Bureaux, all but Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing register negative net approval rates, including the 5 newly appointed Directors. Compared to one month ago, among 8 Directors who held the same positions, the net approval rates of 3 have gone up, 4 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing and Edward Yau have changed beyond sampling error, up by 16, up by 12 and down by 10 percentage points respectively. The net approval rate of Edward Yau has registered historical low since he took office.

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