POP releases ratings of top 10 political groups

 Press Release on April 28, 2020

POP releases ratings of top 10 political groups

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. The survey on the ratings of top 10 political groups released today by POP is the last of its kind before July 1, 2020. Whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 506 and 500 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-April. The latest survey of the top 10 political groups showed that compared to seven months ago, in terms of familiarity, the top 3 political groups are Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP) and Civic Party (CP) while Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood (ADPL) re-entered the list and replaced Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF). In terms of absolute ratings, Demosistō topped the list with 43.1 marks for the first time. DP, ADPL, People Power, CP and League of Social Democrats (LSD) ranked the 2nd to 6th with 42.9, 41.6, 40.0, 39.4 and 39.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks went to Liberal Party, DAB, Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) and New People’s Party which attained 37.7, 35.2, 32.0 and 29.7 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 41.4 marks, while that for the top 10 was 38.1 marks. Compared to seven months ago, the rating of CP has dropped significantly by 5.7 marks and registered its record low since it first appeared on the list since 2006, while that of DAB has increased significantly by 8.4 marks. It should be noted, however, that our “Top 10 Political Groups” only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 61.6%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-3.2 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

    Naming stage Rating stage
Date of survey : 14-15/4/2020 16-17/4/2020
Sample size[1] : 506 (including 254 landline and 252 mobile samples) 500 (including 251 landline and 249 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 68.5% 61.6%
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.2 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. DAB, DP, CP, Liberal Party, FTU, LSD, New People’s Party, Demosistō, Labour Party, Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA), People Power and ADPL were the top 12 political groups mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political groups using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 political groups. Recent ratings of the top 10 political groups are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[4]:

Date of survey 2-4/10/18 23-25/4/19 3-4/9/19 16-17/4/20 Latest change
Sample size[5] 524-574 537-698 536 500
Response rate 46.8% 66.1% 69.9% 61.6%
Latest findings[6] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
Demosistō 38.2[9] 45.2{2}[7] 43.1+/-3.2{1} 81.1% -2.1
DP 44.1{4} 42.2{2} 44.6{4} 42.9+/-2.7{2} 92.8% -1.7
ADPL 41.4{8}[7] [8] 40.7{6} 41.6+/-2.7{3} 74.1%
People Power 35.4{10} 37.7{10} 42.5{5}[7] 40.0+/-3.0{4} 79.7% -2.5
CP 47.1{2} 46.6{1} 45.1{3} 39.4+/-2.7{5} 84.9% -5.7[7]
LSD 38.2{9} 38.1{9} 39.5{6} 39.0+/-2.9{6} 83.8% -0.5
Liberal Party 44.7{3} 41.9{4}[7] 37.6{7}[7] 37.7+/-2.3{7} 86.9% +0.1
DAB 43.6{6} 38.7{8}[7] 26.8{10}[7] 35.2+/-3.2{8} 93.9% +8.4[7]
FTU 47.3{1}[7] 42.2{3}[7] 28.5{9}[7] 32.0+/-2.9{9} 92.0% +3.5
New People’s Party 43.1{7} 38.9{7}[7] 28.8{8}[7] 29.7+/-2.9{10} 79.5% +0.9
Labour Party 44.0{5} 41.3{5} 37.9[7] [9] 35.8+/-2.7[9] 71.3% -2.1
BPA 36.6[9] 35.1[9] 29.6+/-2.8[9] 69.4%
CHRF 51.2{1}
HKCTU 38.6[9]
NWS 44.7[9]

[4]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[5]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[6]     Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[7]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[8]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.

[9]     Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

The latest survey showed that Demosistō topped the list and became the most popularly supported political group, attaining 43.1 marks. DP, ADPL, People Power, CP and LSD ranked the 2nd to 6th with 42.9, 41.6, 40.0, 39.4 and 39.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks went to Liberal Party, DAB, FTU and New People’s Party which attained 37.7, 35.2, 32.0 and 29.7 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 41.4 marks, while that for the top 10 was 38.1 marks. For this latest survey, Labour Party and BPA obtained support ratings of 35.8 and 29.6 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to seven months ago, the rating of CP has dropped significantly by 5.7 marks and registered its record low since it first appeared on the list since 2006, while that of DAB has increased significantly by 8.4 marks.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 4 September, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 17 April, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/4/20 Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security.
14/4/20 Carrie Lam claims the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office did not interfere in Hong Kong affairs.
13/4/20 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok.
12/4/20 The number of daily new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease in Hong Kong drop to four.
11/4/20 The number of coronavirus disease cases in Hong Kong reaches 1,000.
9/4/20 The government launches a subsidy scheme involving $80 billion to keep workers in employment.
8/4/20 The government announces relief measures involving over $130 billion to combat the pandemic.
1/4/20 The government orders karaoke lounges, mahjong parlors and nightclubs to close.
27/3/20 The government announces the ban on gathering with more than 4 people.
23/3/20 The government bans bars and restaurants from selling alcohol.
29/2/20 US Department of State and some councillors express concern over the arrest of Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum.
28/2/20 Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum.
26/2/20 Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.
14/2/20 The government announces the setting up of the Anti-epidemic Fund.
6/2/20 People rush to purchase daily necessities.
3/2/20 The government announces further closure of borders.
1/2/20 Hospital Authority Employees Alliance members vote to go on strike.
31/1/20 The government refuses full border closure.
29/1/20 People rush to purchase masks, which are in short supply.
22/1/20 Two “highly suspected” Wuhan pneumonia cases are found in Hong Kong.
19/1/20 Rally at Central turns into a conflict between protestors and the police.
14/1/20 The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people.
4/1/20 Luo Huining is appointed the Director of the Liaison Office.
1/1/20 The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally.
31/12/19 Protesting activities occur in multiple districts on New Year’s Eve.
25/12/19 Protesting activities occur in multiple districts during Christmas.
8/12/19 The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest.
28/11/19 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
25/11/19 The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils.
24/11/19 The District Council Election sees record high voter turnout.
20/11/19 The US Senate passes the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
19/11/19 The anti-mask law is ruled to be unconstitutional.
17/11/19 The police surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and clash violently with protesters.
12/11/19 Violent conflicts between protestors and the police occur in the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
11/11/19 A traffic policeman fires three live rounds at a protester.
8/11/19 HKUST student who fell from height in Tseung Kwan O passes away.
29/10/19 Nomination of Joshua Wong for District Council election is ruled to be invalid.
16/10/19 Carrie Lam delivers the 2019 Policy Address.
4/10/19 The government officially enacts anti-mask law by invoking emergency law.
1/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong, the police shoots a protester with a live bullet in Tsuen Wan.
26/9/19 Carrie Lam attends the first Community Dialogue session.
4/9/19 Carrie Lam announces the formal withdrawal of the extradition bill.
3/9/19 The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office holds a press conference regarding the anti-extradition bill movement.

Data Analysis

The latest survey of the top 10 political groups showed that compared to seven months ago, in terms of familiarity, the top 3 political groups are DAB, DP and CP while ADPL re-entered the list and replaced CHRF. In terms of absolute ratings, Demosistō topped the list with 43.1 marks for the first time. DP, ADPL, People Power, CP and LSD ranked the 2nd to 6th with 42.9, 41.6, 40.0, 39.4 and 39.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th to 10th ranks went to Liberal Party, DAB, FTU and New People’s Party which attained 37.7, 35.2, 32.0 and 29.7 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 41.4 marks, while that for the top 10 was 38.1 marks. Compared to seven months ago, the rating of CP has dropped significantly by 5.7 marks and registered its record low since it first appeared on the list since 2006, while that of DAB has increased significantly by 8.4 marks. It should be noted, however, that our “Top 10 Political Groups” only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.

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