POP releases popularity of Legislative Councillors and findings of Budget second follow-up survey

 Press Release on April 15, 2020

POP releases popularity of Legislative Councillors
and findings of Budget second follow-up survey

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. The survey on the popularity of Legislative Councillors released today by POP is the last of its kind before July 1, 2020, while the Budget surveys, including instant and follow-up polls, conducted this year may be the last of its series as well. Whether they will be continued or not will depend on public support.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 509 and 500 Hong Kong residents by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in late March and early April. Latest results show that Roy Kwong, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Claudia Mo, Jeremy Tam and Eddie Chu are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 60.4 marks. Alvin Yeung, Eddie Chu and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd to 4th with 53.5, 52.6 and 50.5 marks respectively. Starry Lee follows behind with 32.8 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared with the last survey. The rating of Eddie Chu who re-enters the list has registered a record high since January 2017. As for the Budget, the second follow-up survey shows that the latest net satisfaction rate is negative 18 percentage points, while the satisfaction rating stands at 40.6 marks. As for the Legislative Council passing the Budget, 46% showed support while 37% opposed it, resulting in a net support rate of positive 8 percentage points. Meanwhile, 54% considered Hong Kong’s tax system fair, but 60% were dissatisfied with the government’s strategy in monetary arrangement and 71% regarded the distribution of wealth in Hong Kong unreasonable. All figures are similar to those of the first follow-up survey conducted in late February. The effective response rates of the surveys are 67.7% and 68.1% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-3.3 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

    Naming stage of Legislative Councillors and Budget second follow-up survey Rating stage of Legislative Councillors
Date of survey : 30-31/3/2020 1-2/4/2020
Sample size[1] : 509 (including 252 landline and 257 mobile samples) 500 (including 247 landline and 253 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 67.7% 68.1%
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.3 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of Legislative Councillors

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Roy Kwong, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Claudia Mo, Jeremy Tam and Eddie Chu were the top 6 councillors mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Legislative Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Legislative Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[4]:

Date of survey 5-8/7/19 21-23/10/19 7-8/1/20 1-2/4/20 Latest change
Sample size[5] 514 526 507 500
Response rate 69.1% 63.4% 70.4% 68.1%
Latest findings[6] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
Roy Kwong 61.6[8] 59.0{1} 64.3{1}[7] 60.4+/-3.3{1} 83.6% -3.8
Alvin Yeung 57.4{1}[7] 57.7[8] 56.7[8] 53.5+/-3.3{2} 80.6% -3.3
Eddie Chu 52.6+/-3.2{3} 92.7%
Claudia Mo 47.4{2} 48.8{3} 54.0{4}[7] 50.5+/-3.2{4} 92.5% -3.6
Starry Lee 33.5{3}[7] 25.3{4}[7] 28.6{5} 32.8+/-3.0{5} 92.5% +4.2[7]
Jeremy Tam 56.1+/-3.2[8] 79.2%
Lam Cheuk-ting 56.6{2}
Tanya Chan 52.3{2} 56.5{3}
Junius Ho 17.1{5}
Regina Ip 33.1{4}[7]
Priscilla Leung 27.1{5}[7]

[4]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[5]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[6]     Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[7]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[8]     Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

The latest survey shows that Roy Kwong is the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 60.4 marks. Alvin Yeung, Eddie Chu and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd to 4th with 53.5, 52.6 and 50.5 marks respectively. Starry Lee follows behind with 32.8 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared with the last survey. In the latest survey, Jeremy Tam obtained a rating of 56.1 marks, but was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. Meanwhile, the rating of Eddie Chu who re-enters the list has registered a record high since January 2017.

It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 5” list by design.

Budget Second Follow-up Survey

Results of the Budget second follow-up survey together with the previous two surveys are summarized below:

  Instant survey[9] First follow-up survey Second follow-up survey Latest change
Date of survey 26/2/2020 27-28/2/2020 30-31/3/2020
Sample size[10] 991 512 509
Response rate 75.5% 70.3% 67.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding & error
Appraisal of Budget: Satisfaction rate[11] 46% 28%[13] 30+/-4% +2%
Appraisal of Budget: Dissatisfaction rate[11] 27% 50%[13] 48+/-4% -2%
Net satisfaction rate 19% -22%[13] -18+/-8% +4%
Mean value[11] 3.2 2.5[13] 2.6+/-0.1 +0.1
Satisfaction rating of Budget 54.1 40.2[13] 40.6+/-2.5 +0.3
Support the Legislative Council
passing the Budget[11]
39% 46+/-4% +6%[13]
Oppose the Legislative Council
passing the Budget[11]
39% 37+/-4% -1%
Net support rate <1% 8+/-8% +8%
Mean value[11] 2.9 3.1+/-0.1 +0.2
Government’s strategy in monetary arrangement: Satisfaction rate[11] 20% 22+/-4% +1%
Government’s strategy in monetary arrangement: Dissatisfaction rate[11] 60% 60+/-4%
Net satisfaction rate -40% -38+/-7% +2%
Mean value[11] 2.2 2.2+/-0.1 +0.1
Perceived the tax system in Hong Kong
to be fair[12]
52% 54+/-4% +2%
Perceived the tax system in Hong Kong
to be unfair[12]
35% 35+/-4%
Perceived the distribution of wealth
in Hong Kong to be reasonable[12]
24% 21+/-4% -3%
Perceived the distribution of wealth
in Hong Kong to be unreasonable[12]
67% 71+/-4% +4%

[9]     Questions in instant surveys would exclude respondents who had not heard of / did not have any knowledge of the Budget. Figures in the table are subsample sizes.

[10]  Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[11]  Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[12]  Collapsed from a 4-point scale.

[13]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The second follow-up survey conducted in late March reveals that the latest satisfaction rate of the Budget stands at 30%, dissatisfaction rate 48%, thus a net satisfaction rate of negative 18 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. The satisfaction rating stands at 40.6 marks. These figures are similar to the results of the first follow-up survey conducted in late February. As for the Legislative Council passing the Budget, 46% showed support while 37% opposed it, resulting in a net support rate of positive 8 percentage points.

Meanwhile, 22% were satisfied with the government’s strategy in monetary arrangement, whereas 60% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 38 percentage points. The mean value is 2.2, which is close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. With respect to Hong Kong’s tax system, 54% considered it fair, whilst 35% thought it was unfair. Last of all, 21% perceived the distribution of wealth in Hong Kong reasonable, as contrast to 71% who regarded it unreasonable. The figures above also have not changed much since the first follow-up survey conducted in late February.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 8 January, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 1 to 2 April, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

1/4/20 The government orders karaoke lounges, mahjong parlors and nightclubs to close.
31/3/20 5 people who visited karaoke lounge are infected with coronavirus.
30/3/20 Isolation wards in public hospitals are fully occupied and overloaded.
29/3/20 The enforcement on “Prohibition on Group Gathering” is judged to have grey areas.
28/3/20 “Prohibition on Group Gathering” takes effect.
27/3/20 The government announces the ban on gathering with more than 4 people.
24/3/20 36 people breach 14-day home quarantine orders.
23/3/20 The government bans bars and restaurants from selling alcohol.
23/3/20 The government announces ban on non-residents arrivals at the airport from entering Hong Kong.
22/3/20 The number of coronavirus disease cases in Hong Kong passes 300.
21/3/20 The government tightens coronavirus defences.
20/3/20 Hong Kong confirms 48 coronavirus disease cases in one day.
19/3/20 The number of coronavirus disease cases in Hong Kong passes 200.
18/3/20 Hong Kong confirms 25 coronavirus disease cases in one day.
17/3/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from any foreign country will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
16/3/20 Multiple imported coronavirus disease cases are found in Hong Kong.
15/3/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from the UK and the US will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
14/3/20 Residents of Heng Tai House, Fu Heng Estate in Tai Po evacuate due to coronavirus disease cases.
11/3/20 Nine Hong Kong residents who joined a tour to Egypt are diagnosed with the coronavirus disease.
7/3/20 A Hong Kong resident previously on the cruise Diamond Princess passes away.
5/3/20 Japan cancels visa-free entry for Hong Kong residents and visitors will be put under quarantine for 14 days.
4/3/20 The first batch of government-chartered flights bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei.
28/2/20 Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum.
26/2/20 Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.
24/2/20 The government announces it will arrange charter flights to bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei.
19/2/20 The first batch of Hong Kong people on the cruise Diamond Princess return to Hong Kong by a charter flight.
14/2/20 The government announces the setting up of the Anti-epidemic Fund.
11/2/20 Residents of Hong Mei House, Cheung Hong Estate in Tsing Yi evacuate due to Wuhan pneumonia cases.
9/2/20 First case of Wuhan pneumonia infection within family is reported in Hong Kong.
8/2/20 Policy puts 161 people in mandatory quarantine.
7/2/20 The policy of putting people entering Hong Kong from mainland China in a 14-day quarantine takes effect.
6/2/20 People rush to purchase daily necessities.
5/2/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from mainland China will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
4/2/20 First death from Wuhan pneumonia is reported in Hong Kong.
3/2/20 The government announces further closure of borders.
1/2/20 Hospital Authority Employees Alliance members vote to go on strike.
31/1/20 The government refuses full border closure.
29/1/20 People rush to purchase masks, which are in short supply.
28/1/20 The government announces partial border closure.
27/1/20 The government imposes immigration restrictions on Hubei residents and people who visited Hubei.
23/1/20 A lockdown of Wuhan is announced.
22/1/20 Two “highly suspected” Wuhan pneumonia cases are found in Hong Kong.
14/1/20 The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people.
13/1/20 The government plans to provide over $10 billion to Ocean Park as a subsidy.

Data Analysis

Regarding the popularity of Legislative Councillors, Roy Kwong, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Claudia Mo, Jeremy Tam and Eddie Chu are the six councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 60.4 marks. Alvin Yeung, Eddie Chu and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd to 4th with 53.5, 52.6 and 50.5 marks respectively. Starry Lee follows behind with 32.8 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared with the last survey. The rating of Eddie Chu who re-enters the list has registered a record high since January 2017.

As for the Budget, the second follow-up survey shows that the latest net satisfaction rate is negative 18 percentage points, while the satisfaction rating stands at 40.6 marks. As for the Legislative Council passing the Budget, 46% showed support while 37% opposed it, resulting in a net support rate of positive 8 percentage points. Meanwhile, 54% considered Hong Kong’s tax system fair, but 60% were dissatisfied with the government’s strategy in monetary arrangement and 71% regarded the distribution of wealth in Hong Kong unreasonable. All figures are similar to those of the first follow-up survey conducted in late February.

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