POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials (2020-04-07)

Apr 7, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

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Detailed Findings

 Press Release on April 7, 2020

POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late March to early April. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly increased by 3.2 marks since two weeks ago to 25.5. Her net popularity has slightly increased to negative 60 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has significantly increased by 3.3 marks since last month to 29.5 while his net popularity has also significantly increased by 9 percentage points to negative 34. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 32.4 marks and his net popularity is negative 26 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 18.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 63 percentage points. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 10 among 13 Directors have gone up, 2 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Patrick Nip, John Lee, Lau Kong-wah and Joshua Law have changed beyond sampling error, up by 20, 14, 10 and 9 percentage points respectively. The effective response rate of the survey is 66.7%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 30/3-2/4/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,005 (including 496 landline and 509 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 66.7%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 16-21/1/20 3-6/2/20 17-19/2/20 27/2-3/3/20 17-20/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,004 1,001 1,008 1,015 1,004 1,005
Response rate 69.7% 77.6% 64.6% 67.1% 62.9% 66.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 20.8 20.3 18.2 22.6[4] 22.3 25.5+/-2.0 +3.2[4]
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 14% 13% 9%[4] 13%[4] 13% 16+/-2% +2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 80% 81% 83% 80% 77% 75+/-3% -2%
Net approval rate -66% -68% -74%[4] -66%[4] -64% -60+/-5% +4%

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 28/11-3/12/19 3-8/1/20 3-6/2/20 26/2/20[5] 27/2-3/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 Latest change
Sample size[6] 659-671 608-669 569-631 1,038 646-675 672-685
Response rate 63.2% 72.0% 77.6% 75.5% 67.1% 66.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 25.6 25.3 22.9 26.1[7] 29.5+/-2.1 +3.3[7]
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
13% 14% 12% 13% 16+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
54%[7] 54% 59% 56% 50+/-4% -6%[7]
Net approval rate -40%[7] -41% -47% -42% -34+/-6% +9%[7]
Rating of FS Paul Chan 24.8 27.6 26.6 43.5[7] 32.3[7] 32.4+/-2.4 +0.1
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 16% 18% 19% 27[7] 22%[7] 23+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 57% 56% 55% 41[7] 50%[7] 49+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -40% -37% -36% -14%[7] -28%[7] -26+/-6% +3%
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 14.5 14.5 15.9 16.7 18.7+/-2.0 +2.0
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 9% 8% 9% 8% 7+/-2% -1%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 75% 77% 71%[7] 71% 70+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -66% -69% -61%[7] -64% -63+/-5% +1%

[5]     The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[6]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[7]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[8]:

Date of survey 3-8/1/20 3-6/2/20 27/2-3/3/20 30/3-2/4/20 Latest change
Sample size[9] 588-620 578-609 595-634 576-631
Response rate 72.0% 77.6% 67.1% 66.7%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 24% 26% 23% 23+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 30% 29% 31% 28+/-4% -4%
Net approval rate -6% -3% -9% -5+/-6% +4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau 18% 17% 17% 17+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau 23% 26% 26% 25+/-4% -2%
Net approval rate -5% -9% -9% -8+/-5% +1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 25% 23% 23% 26+/-4% +2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 38%[10] 41% 33%[10] 35+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -13%[10] -18% -10% -9+/-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 16% 15% 16% 17+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 32% 30% 27% 27+/-4%
Net approval rate -16% -15% -11% -10+/-5% +1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 22% 20% 24% 26+/-4% +2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 41% 36% 41% 37+/-4% -4%
Net approval rate -19% -16% -17% -11+/-6% +6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip 11%[10] 16%[10] 13% 22+/-3% +9%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip 44% 45% 48% 37+/-4% -11%[10]
Net approval rate -32% -29% -35% -14+/-6% +20%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law 18% 22% 18% 22+/-3% +5%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law 47% 42% 41% 37+/-4% -4%
Net approval rate -29% -20%[10] -23% -15+/-6% +9%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 18% 20% 19% 24+/-3% +5%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 50% 49% 44% 42+/-4% -2%
Net approval rate -31% -29% -25% -18+/-6% +7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 21% 19% 23% 23+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 45% 54%[10] 51% 44+/-4% -7%[10]
Net approval rate -24% -35%[10] -28% -21+/-6% +7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang 16% 16% 18% 17+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang 38%[10] 35% 37% 39+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -22% -18% -19% -22+/-6% -3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah 14% 12% 12% 17+/-3% +4%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah 56% 59% 55% 49+/-4% -6%[10]
Net approval rate -42% -46% -42% -32+/-6% +10%[10]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 11% 16%[10] 19% 18+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 66% 59%[10] 53%[10] 53+/-4%
Net approval rate -55% -43%[10] -34% -36+/-6% -1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 14% 15% 13% 18+/-3% +5%[10]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 68% 65% 68% 59+/-4% -9%[10]
Net approval rate -54% -50% -54% -41+/-6% +14%[10]

[8]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[10]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly increased by 3.2 marks since two weeks ago to 25.5. Her approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 75%, giving a net popularity of negative 60 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has significantly increased by 3.3 marks since last month to 29.5. His approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 50%, giving a net popularity of negative 34 percentage points, which is also a significant increase of 9 percentage points since last month. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 32.4 marks, approval rate 23%, disapproval rate 49%, thus a net popularity of negative 26 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 18.7 marks, approval rate 7%, disapproval rate 70%, giving a net popularity of negative 63 percentage points.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Security John Lee.

Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 10 among 13 Directors have gone up, 2 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Patrick Nip, John Lee, Lau Kong-wah and Joshua Law have changed beyond sampling error, up by 20, 14, 10 and 9 percentage points respectively.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Law Chi-kwong, Edward Yau, Frank Chan, Sophia Chan, Paul Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Joshua Law, Patrick Nip, Lau Kong-wah, Nicholas Yang and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Michael Wong and James Lau can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. John Lee and Kevin Yeung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Nil
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Nil
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (26%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (26%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (24%)

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (23%)

FS Paul Chan Mo-po (23%)

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (23%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (22%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (22%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (17%)

Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (17%)

CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (16%)

 
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[11]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate
Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (17%, 43%)

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (17%, 41%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (59%)

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (53%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]
CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (75%)

SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (70%)

[11]  If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 27 February to 3 March, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 30 March to 2 April, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

1/4/20 The government orders karaoke lounges, mahjong parlors and nightclubs to close.
31/3/20 5 people who visited karaoke lounge are infected with coronavirus.
30/3/20 Isolation wards in public hospitals are fully occupied and overloaded.
29/3/20 The enforcement on “Prohibition on Group Gathering” is judged to have grey areas.
28/3/20 “Prohibition on Group Gathering” takes effect.
27/3/20 The government announces the ban on gathering with more than 4 people.
24/3/20 36 people breach 14-day home quarantine orders.
23/3/20 The government bans bars and restaurants from selling alcohol.
23/3/20 The government announces ban on non-residents arrivals at the airport from entering Hong Kong.
22/3/20 The number of coronavirus disease cases in Hong Kong passes 300.
21/3/20 The government tightens coronavirus defences.
20/3/20 Hong Kong confirms 48 coronavirus disease cases in one day.
19/3/20 The number of coronavirus disease cases in Hong Kong passes 200.
18/3/20 Hong Kong confirms 25 coronavirus disease cases in one day.
17/3/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from any foreign country will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
16/3/20 Multiple imported coronavirus disease cases are found in Hong Kong.
15/3/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from the UK and the US will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
14/3/20 Residents of Heng Tai House, Fu Heng Estate in Tai Po evacuate due to coronavirus disease cases.
11/3/20 Nine Hong Kong residents who joined a tour to Egypt are diagnosed with the coronavirus disease.
8/3/20 Police arrests during midnight 17 people who are suspected of making explosives.
7/3/20 A Hong Kong resident previously on the cruise Diamond Princess passes away.
5/3/20 Japan cancels visa-free entry for Hong Kong residents and visitors will be put under quarantine for 14 days.
4/3/20 The first batch of government-chartered flights bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei.
29/2/20 US Department of State and some councillors express concern over the arrest of Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum.
28/2/20 Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum.
27/2/20 Media continues to report on the Budget.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly increased by 3.2 marks since two weeks ago to 25.5. Her net popularity has slightly increased to negative 60 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has significantly increased by 3.3 marks since last month to 29.5 while his net popularity has also significantly increased by 9 percentage points to negative 34. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 32.4 marks and his net popularity is negative 26 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 18.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 63 percentage points.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 10 among 13 Directors have gone up, 2 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged. Those of Patrick Nip, John Lee, Lau Kong-wah and Joshua Law have changed beyond sampling error, up by 20, 14, 10 and 9 percentage points respectively.

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