POP releases ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors

 Press Release on March 31, 2020

POP releases ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. The survey on the ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors released today by POP is the last of its kind before July 1, 2020. Whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 502 Hong Kong residents in each of a double stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-March. Latest results of top 5 Executive Councillors survey show that compared to six months ago, in terms of familiarity, Lam Ching-choi and Ip Kwok-him have replaced Fanny Law and Joseph Yam to enter the top 5. In terms of absolute ratings, Bernard Chan ranked 1st, attaining 31.1 marks. Regina Ip ranked 2nd, with 29.5 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Tommy Cheung, Ip Kwok-him and Ronny Tong, who attained 24.7, 24.6 and 24.2 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 26.8 marks, and all at their record lows respectively. The effective response rate of the survey is 66.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4% and that of ratings is +/-3.5 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

    Naming stage Rating stage
Date of survey : 17-18/3/2020 19-20/3/2020
Sample size[1] : 502 (including 250 landline and 252 mobile samples) 502 (including 246 landline and 256 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 60.1% 66.2%
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.5 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. The findings of the naming survey are summarized below, in descending order of naming rates [4]:

Date of survey 2-4/10/18 14-19/3/19 2-3/9/19 17-18/3/20 Latest change
in ranking
Sample size[5] 543 606 510 502
Response rate 46.8% 73.1% 69.1% 60.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Regina Ip 18%{1} 12%{2} 31%{1} 32+/-4%{1}
Bernard Chan 11%{2} 14%{1} 16%{3} 16+/-3%{2} ↑1
Ronny Tong 7%{3} 3%{3} 19%{2} 12+/-3%{3} ↓1
Lam Ching-choi <1%{11} 1%{11} 1%{10} 11+/-3%{4} ↑6
Tommy Cheung 2%{7} <1%{14} 3%{6} 4+/-2%{5} ↑1
Ip Kwok-him 1%{9} 1%{6} 3%{7} 3+/-2%{6} ↑1
Fanny Law 4%{4} 2%{4} 6%{4} 3+/-2%{7} ↓3
Horace Cheung <1%{13} <1%{13} <1%{15} 2+/-1%{8} ↑7
Martin Liao <1%{15} <1%{13} 1+/-1%{9} ↑4
Jeffrey Lam 1%{9} 1%{12} 1+/-1%{10} ↑2
Laura Cha 1%{8} 1%{8} 2%{9} 1+/-1%{11} ↓2
Joseph Yam 3%{5} 2%{5} 4%{5} 1+/-1%{12} ↓7
Arthur Li 2%{6} 1%{7} 2%{8} 1+/-1%{13} ↓5
Chow Chung-kong <1%{12} 1%{12} <1%{16} <1+/-1%{14} ↑2
Wong Kwok-kin 1%{10} 1%{11} <1+/-<1%{15} ↓4
Kenneth Lau 1%{10} <1%{14} <1+/-<1%{16} ↓2
Wrong answer 12% 17% 17% 14+/-3%
Don’t know/
hard to say
68% 70% 54% 59+/-4%

[4]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[5]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

The naming survey showed that Regina Ip, Bernard Chan, Ronny Tong and Lam Ching-choi were named most frequently with naming rates of 32%, 16%, 12% and 11% respectively. Tommy Cheung, Ip Kwok-him and Fanny Law followed, with naming rates of 4%, 3% and 3% respectively. However, 14% made a wrong attempt at citing non-official Executive Councillors while 59% had no clue.

 

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Executive Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of their ratings [6]:

Date of survey 11-12/10/18 8-11/4/19 3-4/9/19 19-20/3/20 Latest change
Sample size[7] 503 557-655 536 502
Response rate 65.3% 63.9% 69.9% 66.2%
Latest findings[8] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
Bernard Chan 49.3[9] 52.8[9] [10] 35.1[9] [10] 31.1+/-3.1{1} 64.1% -3.9[10]
Regina Ip 46.0{3}[10][11] 48.3{2} 30.0{2}[10] 29.5+/-2.8{2} 95.1% -0.5
Tommy Cheung 27.4{3} 24.7+/-2.8{3} 67.0% -2.7
Ip Kwok-him 41.0{5} 24.6+/-3.0{4} 69.0%
Ronny Tong 46.7{2} 45.9{3} 24.9{5}[10] 24.2+/-2.7{5} 82.5% -0.8
Lam Ching-choi 28.8+/-3.5[9] 48.4%
Joseph Yam 54.7{1}[10][11] 58.1{1}[10] 44.2{1}[10]
Fanny Law 42.3{4} 42.9{4} 27.3{4}[10]
Arthur Li 40.4{5}

[6]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[7]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[8]     Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[9]     Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

[10]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[11]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the new weighting method was used on the previous dataset, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.

The latest rating survey showed that Bernard Chan was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 31.1 marks. Regina Ip ranked 2nd, with 29.5 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Tommy Cheung, Ip Kwok-him and Ronny Tong, who attained 24.7, 24.6 and 24.2 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 26.8 marks. In this latest survey, Lam Ching-choi obtained a support rating of 28.8 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. All of these Executive Councillors’ ratings are at their record lows respectively.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 4 September, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 20 March, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/3/20 Hong Kong confirms 48 coronavirus disease cases in one day.
19/3/20 The number of coronavirus disease cases in Hong Kong passes 200.
18/3/20 Hong Kong confirms 25 coronavirus disease cases in one day.
17/3/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from any foreign country will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
16/3/20 Multiple imported coronavirus disease cases are found in Hong Kong.
15/3/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from the UK and the US will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
14/3/20 Residents of Heng Tai House, Fu Heng Estate in Tai Po evacuate due to coronavirus disease cases.
11/3/20 Nine Hong Kong residents who joined a tour to Egypt are diagnosed with the coronavirus disease.
4/3/20 The first batch of government-chartered flights bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei.
28/2/20 Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum.
26/2/20 Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.
19/2/20 The first batch of Hong Kong people on the cruise Diamond Princess return to Hong Kong by a charter flight.
14/2/20 The government announces the setting up of the Anti-epidemic Fund.
13/2/20 Xia Baolong is appointed the Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office.
11/2/20 Residents of Hong Mei House, Cheung Hong Estate in Tsing Yi evacuate due to Wuhan pneumonia cases.
9/2/20 First case of Wuhan pneumonia infection within family is reported in Hong Kong.
8/2/20 Policy puts 161 people in mandatory quarantine.
7/2/20 The policy of putting people entering Hong Kong from mainland China in a 14-day quarantine takes effect.
6/2/20 People rush to purchase daily necessities.
5/2/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from mainland China will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
4/2/20 First death from Wuhan pneumonia is reported in Hong Kong.
3/2/20 The government announces further closure of borders.
1/2/20 Hospital Authority Employees Alliance members vote to go on strike.
31/1/20 The government refuses full border closure.
29/1/20 People rush to purchase masks, which are in short supply.
28/1/20 The government announces partial border closure.
27/1/20 The government imposes immigration restrictions on Hubei residents and people who visited Hubei.
22/1/20 Two “highly suspected” Wuhan pneumonia cases are found in Hong Kong.
14/1/20 The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people.
13/1/20 The government plans to provide over $10 billion to Ocean Park as a subsidy.
7/1/20 The government adds Wuhan pneumonia to the list of notifiable diseases.
6/1/20 Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining starts his first day on job.
3/1/20 Wuhan authorities announce an increase of pneumonia cases to 44.
1/1/20 The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally.
31/12/19 Protesting activities occur in multiple districts on New Year’s Eve.
28/12/19 Number of tours for tourists from mainland China has plunged.
16/12/19 Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing.
11/12/19 All members of the Independent Police Complaints Council International Expert Panel quit.
10/12/19 China Light and Power and Hong Kong Electric are to raise their tariffs.
8/12/19 The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest.
4/12/19 The government announces a new round of relief measures.
28/11/19 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
26/11/19 The Hung Hom Cross-Harbour Tunnel reopens.
25/11/19 The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils.
24/11/19 The District Council Election sees record high voter turnout.
17/11/19 The police surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and clash violently with protesters.
16/11/19 The People’s Liberation Army clears roadblocks.
14/11/19 Xi Jinping expresses his views on Hong Kong.
13/11/19 The Education Bureau announces that classes will be suspended as conflicts continue.
12/11/19 Violent conflicts between protestors and the police occur in the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
11/11/19 A traffic policeman fires three live rounds at a protester.
22/10/19 The government announces a new round of relief measures to support enterprises.
16/10/19 Carrie Lam delivers the 2019 Policy Address.
11/10/19 The first meeting of Finance Committee of Legislative Council is held after the renovation of the Legislative Council Building.
4/10/19 The government officially enacts anti-mask law by invoking emergency law.
1/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong, the police shoots a protester with a live bullet in Tsuen Wan.
28/9/19 The Civil Human Rights Front organizes a rally at Tamar Park to commemorate 5th anniversary of Umbrella Movement.
26/9/19 Carrie Lam attends the first Community Dialogue session.
13/9/19 The government proposes to impose vacancy tax on newly built flats.
6/9/19 Fitch Ratings downgrades Hong Kong‘s credit rating.
4/9/19 Carrie Lam announces the formal withdrawal of the extradition bill.

Data Analysis

The latest top 5 Executive Councillors survey was conducted in mid-March. Results showed that compared to six months ago, in terms of familiarity, Lam Ching-choi and Ip Kwok-him have replaced Fanny Law and Joseph Yam to enter the top 5. In terms of absolute ratings, Bernard Chan ranked 1st, attaining 31.1 marks. Regina Ip ranked 2nd, with 29.5 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Tommy Cheung, Ip Kwok-him and Ronny Tong, who attained 24.7, 24.6 and 24.2 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 26.8 marks, and all at their record lows respectively.

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