POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

 Press Release on March 10, 2020

POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,015 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late February to early March. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 22.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. Her popularity figures have stopped falling and significantly rebounded from the historical lows registered two weeks ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has significantly increased by 3.2 marks since last month to 26.1 and his net popularity is negative 42 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has fallen back sharply by 11.2 marks from the day the Budget was delivered to 32.3. His net popularity is negative 28 percentage points with a similar sharp drop of 15 percentage points. If compared to the figures a month ago, however, his popularities have improved. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 16.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 64 percentage points. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among 13 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged, and none of them have changed beyond sampling error. The effective response rate of the survey is 67.1%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 27/2-3/3/2020
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,015 (including 512 landline and 503 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 67.1%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 13-18/12/19 3-8/1/20 16-21/1/20 3-6/2/20 17-19/2/20 27/2-3/3/20 Latest change
Sample size 1,046 1,011 1,004 1,001 1,008 1,015
Response rate 61.6% 72.0% 69.7% 77.6% 64.6% 67.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 19.6 21.5 20.8 20.3 18.2 22.6+/-1.9 +4.4[4]
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 12% 14% 14% 13% 9%[4] 13+/-2% +4%[4]
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 81% 80% 80% 81% 83% 80+/-3% -3%
Net approval rate -68% -66% -66% -68% -74%[4] -66+/-4% +7%[4]

[4]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey 1-8/11/19 28/11-3/12/19 3-8/1/20 3-6/2/20 26/2/20[5] 27/2-3/3/20 Latest change
Sample size[6] 625-656 659-671 608-669 569-631 1,038 646-675
Response rate 69.4% 63.2% 72.0% 77.6% 75.5% 67.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung 28.1[7] 25.6 25.3 22.9 26.1+/-2.2 +3.2[7]
Vote of confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
17% 13% 14% 12% 13+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in
CS Matthew Cheung
46% 54%[7] 54% 59% 56+/-4% -3%
Net approval rate -29% -40%[7] -41% -47% -42+/-6% +4%
Rating of FS Paul Chan 27.2 24.8 27.6 26.6 43.5[7] 32.3+/-2.5 -11.2[7]
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan 16% 16% 18% 19% 27[7] 22+/-3% -6%[7]
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan 57% 57% 56% 55% 41[7] 50+/-4% +9%[7]
Net approval rate -40% -40% -37% -36% -14%[7] -28+/-6% -15%[7]
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng 14.1 14.5 14.5 15.9 16.7+/-1.9 +0.8
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 7% 9% 8% 9% 8+/-2% -2%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng 76% 75% 77% 71%[7] 71+/-4%
Net approval rate -68% -66% -69% -61%[7] -64+/-5% -2%

[5]     The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[6]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[7]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[8]:

Date of survey 28/11-3/12/19 3-8/1/20 3-6/2/20 27/2-3/3/20 Latest change
Sample size[9] 588-638 588-620 578-609 595-634
Response rate 63.2% 72.0% 77.6% 67.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 23% 24% 26% 23+/-3% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing 33%[10] 30% 29% 31+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -11% -6% -3% -9+/-6% -5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau 18% 18% 17% 17+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau 24% 23% 26% 26+/-4% +1%
Net approval rate -6% -5% -9% -9+/-5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 26% 25% 23% 23+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau 29% 38%[10] 41% 33+/-4% -8%[10]
Net approval rate -4% -13%[10] -18% -10+/-6% +8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 17% 16% 15% 16+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong 30% 32% 30% 27+/-4% -3%
Net approval rate -13% -16% -15% -11+/-5% +5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 20% 22% 20% 24+/-3% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong 36% 41% 36% 41+/-4% +5%
Net approval rate -16% -19% -16% -17+/-6% -1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang 16% 16% 16% 18+/-3% +1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang 32% 38%[10] 35% 37+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -16% -22% -18% -19+/-6% -1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law 18% 18% 22% 18+/-3% -4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law 42% 47% 42% 41+/-4% -1%
Net approval rate -23% -29% -20%[10] -23+/-6% -3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 17% 18% 20% 19+/-3% -1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan 50% 50% 49% 44+/-4% -5%
Net approval rate -34% -31% -29% -25+/-6% +5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 22% 21% 19% 23+/-3% +4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan 43%[10] 45% 54%[10] 51+/-4% -3%
Net approval rate -21%[10] -24% -35%[10] -28+/-7% +7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 12% 11% 16%[10] 19+/-3% +3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung 62% 66% 59%[10] 53+/-4% -6%[10]
Net approval rate -50% -55% -43%[10] -34+/-6% +8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip 16% 11%[10] 16%[10] 13+/-3% -3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip 43%[10] 44% 45% 48+/-4% +3%
Net approval rate -27%[10] -32% -29% -35+/-6% -6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah 14% 14% 12% 12+/-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah 58% 56% 59% 55+/-4% -4%
Net approval rate -44% -42% -46% -42+/-6% +4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 15%[10] 14% 15% 13+/-3% -2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee 66%[10] 68% 65% 68+/-4% +2%
Net approval rate -51%[10] -54% -50% -54+/-6% -4%

[8]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9]     Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.

[10]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 22.6 marks. Her approval rate is 13%, disapproval rate 80%, giving a net popularity of negative 66 percentage points. Her popularity figures have stopped falling and significantly rebounded from the historical lows registered two weeks ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has significantly increased by 3.2 marks since last month to 26.1. His approval rate is 13%, disapproval rate 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has fallen back sharply by 11.2 marks from the day the Budget was delivered to 32.3. The approval rate is 22%, disapproval rate 50%, thus a net popularity of negative 28 percentage points with a similar sharp drop of 15 percentage points. If compared to the figures a month ago, however, his popularities have improved. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 16.7 marks, approval rate 8%, disapproval rate 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 64 percentage points.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Security John Lee.

Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among 13 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged, and none of them have changed beyond sampling error.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Law Chi-kwong, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan, Nicholas Yang, Joshua Law and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of James Lau and Michael Wong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Matthew Cheung, Lau Kong-wah, Kevin Yeung, Sophia Chan and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam, Teresa Cheng and John Lee fall into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Nil
 
“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Nil
 
“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11]
Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (24%)

Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (23%)

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (23%)

Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (19%)

Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (18%)

Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (18%)

Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (13%)

 
“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[11]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (17%, 44%)

Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (16%, 43%)

 
“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]
CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (56%)

Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (55%)

Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (53%)

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (51%)

FS Paul Chan Mo-po (50%)

 
“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11]
CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (80%)

SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (71%)

Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (68%)

[11]  If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 6 February, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 27 February to 3 March, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

29/2/20 US Department of State and some councillors express concern over the arrest of Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum.
28/2/20 Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum.
26/2/20 Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget.
24/2/20 The government announces it will arrange charter flights to bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei.
19/2/20 The first batch of Hong Kong people on the cruise Diamond Princess return to Hong Kong by a charter flight.
14/2/20 The government announces the setting up of the Anti-epidemic Fund.
13/2/20 Xia Baolong is appointed the Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office.
11/2/20 Residents of Hong Mei House, Cheung Hong Estate in Tsing Yi evacuate due to Wuhan pneumonia cases.
9/2/20 First case of Wuhan pneumonia infection within family is reported in Hong Kong.
8/2/20 Policy puts 161 people in mandatory quarantine.
7/2/20 The policy of putting people entering Hong Kong from mainland China in a 14-day quarantine takes effect.
6/2/20 People rush to purchase daily necessities.
5/2/20 The government announces people entering Hong Kong from mainland China will be put in a 14-day quarantine.
4/2/20 First death from Wuhan pneumonia is reported in Hong Kong.
3/2/20 The government announces further closure of borders.

Data Analysis

The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 22.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. Her popularity figures have stopped falling and significantly rebounded from the historical lows registered two weeks ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has significantly increased by 3.2 marks since last month to 26.1 and his net popularity is negative 42 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has fallen back sharply by 11.2 marks from the day the Budget was delivered to 32.3. His net popularity is negative 28 percentage points with a similar sharp drop of 15 percentage points. If compared to the figures a month ago, however, his popularities have improved. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 16.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 64 percentage points.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among 13 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged, and none of them have changed beyond sampling error.

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