POP releases popularity of Legislative Councillors and the latest survey on Taiwan and Tibetan issues (2020-01-14)

Jan 14, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Detailed Findings

 Press Release on January 14, 2020

POP releases popularity of Legislative Councillors
and the latest survey on Taiwan and Tibetan issues

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. The POP survey on Taiwan and Tibetan issues is the last survey before July 1, 2020, whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early January. Latest results show that Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 64.3 marks, which represent a significant jump of 5.3 marks from the last survey. Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan rank the 2nd and 3rd with 56.6 and 56.5 marks respectively. Claudia Mo and Starry Lee followed behind with 54.0 and 28.6 marks respectively. Among them, the rating of Claudia Mo has increased significantly by 5.2 marks compared with the last survey. Meanwhile, the ratings of Roy Kwong and Claudia Mo have registered record high since records began in 2016 and 2017 respectively, while that of Tanya Chan has registered record high since 2011. As for Taiwan and Tibetan issues, Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait has dropped significantly by 15 percentage points to negative 53, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1993. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 36 percentage points, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993. As for the independence of Taiwan, net support stands at positive 9 percentage points, the first time support outnumbers opposition since the question was first asked in 1993. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 45 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1996. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet has increased significantly by 14 percentage points to negative 13, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993. The effective response rate of the survey is 72.0%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.2 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 3-8/1/2020[4]
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,011 (including 504 landline and 507 mobile samples)[4]
Effective response rate[2] : 72.0%[4]
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.2 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]     This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]     Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]     All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4]     For the naming stage of Legislative Councillors, the date of survey is 3-6/1/2020, the sample size is 504 (including 248 landline and 256 mobile samples) and the effective response rate is 74.0%. For the rating stage, the date of survey is 7-8/1/2020, the sample size is 507 (including 256 landline and 251 mobile samples) and the effective response rate is 70.4%.

Popularity of Legislative Councillors

In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan were the top 6 councillors mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Legislative Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Legislative Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[5]:

Date of survey 14-19/3/19 5-8/7/19 21-23/10/19 7-8/1/20 Latest change
Sample size 582-697 514 526 507
Response rate 73.1% 69.1% 63.4% 70.4%
Latest findings[6] Finding Finding Finding Finding & error Recognition rate
Roy Kwong 61.6[8] 59.0{1} 64.3+/-3.2{1} 86.1% +5.3[7]
Lam Cheuk-ting 56.6+/-3.1{2} 88.3%
Tanya Chan 47.4{5} 52.3{2} 56.5+/-3.1{3} 93.5% +4.2
Claudia Mo 44.5{7} 47.4{2} 48.8{3} 54.0+/-3.1{4} 96.1% +5.2[7]
Starry Lee 43.4{8} 33.5{3}[7] 25.3{4}[7] 28.6+/-2.8{5} 95.8% +3.2
Alvin Yeung 49.4[8] 57.4{1}[7] 57.7[8] 56.7+/-3.2[8] 83.9% -0.9
Junius Ho 17.1{5}
Regina Ip 48.3{4} 33.1{4}[7]
Priscilla Leung 38.9{9} 27.1{5}[7]
Michael Tien 55.1{1}
James To 52.1{2}
Eddie Chu 48.7{3}
Paul Tse 45.5{6}
Holden Chow 35.5{10}
Raymond Chan 44.5[8]

[5]     If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[6]     Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.

[7]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[8]     Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.

The latest survey shows that Roy Kwong is the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 64.3 marks, which represent a significant jump of 5.3 marks from the last survey. Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan rank the 2nd and 3rd with 56.6 and 56.5 marks respectively. Claudia Mo and Starry Lee followed behind with 54.0 and 28.6 marks respectively. Among them, the rating of Claudia Mo has increased significantly by 5.2 marks compared with the last survey. In the latest survey, Alvin Yeung obtained a rating of 56.7 marks, but was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. Meanwhile, the ratings of Roy Kwong and Claudia Mo have registered record high since records began in 2016 and 2017 respectively, while that of Tanya Chan has registered record high since 2011.

It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 5” list by design.

Taiwan and Tibetan Issues

People’s latest views towards various Taiwan and Tibetan issues are summarized below:

Date of survey 1-6/2/18 6-9/8/18 7-11/1/19 2-8/7/19 3-8/1/20 Latest change
Sample size 696-786 553-612 505-550 575-648 585-657
Response rate 62.5% 51.2% 55.6% 67.4% 72.0%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Confidence in cross-strait reunification 30%[9] 35% 28%[9] 27% 19+/-3% -7%[9]
No confidence in cross-strait reunification 62% 56%[9] [10] 60% 65% 72+/-4% +7%[9]
Net confidence -32% -22% -33%[9] -38% -53+/-6% -15%[9]
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate 54%[9] 59% 54% 57% 63+/-4% +6%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate 32% 29% 29% 27% 26+/-4%
Net support 22%[9] 30% 25% 31% 36+/-7% +6%
Taiwan independence: Support rate 33% 34% 35% 44%[9] 48+/-4% +4%
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate 54% 54% 50% 44%[9] 39+/-4% -6%[9]
Net support -20% -20% -16% 0%[9] 9+/-7% +10%
Believe “one country, two systems” is applicable to Taiwan 35%[9] 35% 29%[9] 27% 21+/-3% -6%[9]
Believe “one country, two systems” is not applicable to Taiwan 53% 50% 59%[9] 63% 66+/-4% +3%
Net value of applicability -18% -14% -30%[9] -36% -45+/-7% -9%
Tibet independence: Support rate 19% 19% 19% 26%[9] 34+/-4% +8%[9]
Tibet independence: Opposition rate 63% 63% 58% 53% 46+/-4% -7%[9]
Net support -44% -44% -39% -27%[9] -13+/-7% +14%[9]

[9]     The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[10]  The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.

Latest survey revealed that 19% of Hong Kong people interviewed were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait while 72% expressed no confidence. Net confidence has dropped significantly by 15 percentage points to negative 53, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1993. Regarding international space, 63% supported Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations while 26% opposed that. Net support stands at positive 36 percentage points, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993. As for the independence of Taiwan, 48% showed support while 39% opposed it, resulting in net support of positive 9 percentage points, the first time support outnumbers opposition since the question was first asked in 1993. Meanwhile, 21% believed “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan while 66% believed it was not. Net value of applicability stands at negative 45 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1996. Regarding Tibetan issues, 46% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Tibet whereas 34% showed support. Net support has increased significantly by 14 percentage points to negative 13, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 2 to 8 July, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 8 January, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

3/1/20 Wuhan authorities announce an increase of pneumonia cases to 44.
1/1/20 The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally.
31/12/19 Protesting activities occur in multiple districts on New Year’s Eve.
25/12/19 Protesting activities occur in multiple districts during Christmas.
16/12/19 Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing.
11/12/19 All members of the Independent Police Complaints Council International Expert Panel quit.
8/12/19 The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest.
1/12/19 Protesters march along Tsim Sha Tsui.
28/11/19 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
25/11/19 The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils.
17/11/19 The police surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and clash violently with protesters.
16/11/19 The People’s Liberation Army clears roadblocks.
14/11/19 Xi Jinping expresses his views on Hong Kong.
12/11/19 Violent conflicts between protestors and the police occur in the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
11/11/19 A traffic policeman fires three live rounds at a protester.
10/11/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
8/11/19 HKUST student who fell from height in Tseung Kwan O passes away.
23/10/19 Chan Tong-kai is released from prison.
22/10/19 Taiwan requests to send officers to Hong Kong to escort Chan Tong-kai to Taiwan for trial.
30/8/19 Several pro-democracy Legislative Councillors and Demosistō members are arrested.

Data Analysis

Regarding the popularity of Legislative Councillors, Roy Kwong, Claudia Mo, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan are the six councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 64.3 marks, which represent a significant jump of 5.3 marks from the last survey. Lam Cheuk-ting and Tanya Chan rank the 2nd and 3rd with 56.6 and 56.5 marks respectively. Claudia Mo and Starry Lee followed behind with 54.0 and 28.6 marks respectively. Among them, the rating of Claudia Mo has increased significantly by 5.2 marks compared with the last survey. Meanwhile, the ratings of Roy Kwong and Claudia Mo have registered record high since records began in 2016 and 2017 respectively, while that of Tanya Chan has registered record high since 2011.

As for Taiwan and Tibetan issues, Hong Kong people’s net confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait has dropped significantly by 15 percentage points to negative 53, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1993. Regarding international space, net support in Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations stands at positive 36 percentage points, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993. As for the independence of Taiwan, net support stands at positive 9 percentage points, the first time support outnumbers opposition since the question was first asked in 1993. Meanwhile, net value in believing “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan stands at negative 45 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked in 1996. Regarding Tibetan issues, net support in the independence of Tibet has increased significantly by 14 percentage points to negative 13, the highest since the question was first asked in 1993.

Click to access the login or register cheese