POP releases findings of popularity of CE and SAR Government (2019-12-20)

Dec 20, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

POP releases findings of popularity of CE and SAR Government

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. POP’s usual practice is to issue releases before the middle and also the end of each year, under the names of “HKSAR anniversary” and “Year-end” survey series for public consumption. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. The survey results on popularity of CE and SAR Government released today belong to the last of this survey series in 2019.
  3. Tentative release dates of remaining survey topics in 2019 are as follows:

l  December 23 (Monday)         Society’s current conditions and Public Sentiment Index

l  December 30 (Monday)         Year-end review

  1. POP began our Macau studies 28 years ago, including regular surveys and election studies, in order to build up progressively a set of scientific opinion polling mechanisms in the region and to provide data for future comparative studies. After 28 years, we hope to let the civil society decide whether our Macau studies should be continued or not. We have launched a crowdfunding target of $240,000 to let the general public, especially Macau citizens, make the call. If the target is met, we will quickly conduct a new round of survey covering the popularity of Macau CE and SAR Government, Macau people’s ethnic identity, trust towards the local and central governments, confidence in the future and in one country two systems, and so on. In case the funding target is not met, we will spend the funds on other POP survey series. For details of our previous Macau studies and latest crowdfunding scheme, please visit: https://www.pori.hk/macau-annual-survey-index.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,046 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-December. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 68 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 62 percentage points, the net trust value is negative 39 percentage points, figures have not changed much since mid-November. The effective response rate of the survey is 61.6%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 13-18/12/2019
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,046 (including 535 landline and 511 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 61.6%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]    This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]    Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]    All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 16/10/19 17-23/10/19 1-8/11/19 15-21/11/19 28/11-3/12/19 13-18/12/19 Latest change
Sample size 745 1,038 1,016 1,008 1,014 1,046
Response rate 80.0% 63.2% 69.4% 74.1% 63.2% 61.6%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 22.7 20.2 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.6+/-1.8 -0.1
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 15% 11%[4] 11% 11% 10% 12+/-2% +2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 79% 82% 82% 82% 82% 81+/-2% -2%
Net approval rate -64% -71% -71% -72% -72% -68+/-4% +4%

[4]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 17-19/7/19 15-20/8/19 16-19/9/19 17-23/10/19 15-21/11/19 13-18/12/19 Latest change
Sample size 546 635 688 668 591 646
Response rate 59.8% 68.5% 69.5% 63.2% 74.1% 61.6%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] 18% 14% 12% 10% 11% 14+/-3% +3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] 70% 77%[6] 76% 79% 77% 76+/-3% -1%
Net satisfaction rate -52% -63%[6] -63% -69% -66% -62+/-6% +4%
Mean value[5] 2.0 1.8[6] 1.8 1.7[6] 1.7 1.8+/-0.1

[5]    Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[6]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent figures regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 17-20/6/19 17-19/7/19 15-20/8/19 17-23/10/19 15-21/11/19 13-18/12/19 Latest change
Sample size 623 555 632 623 607 618
Response rate 58.7% 59.8% 68.5% 63.2% 74.1% 61.6%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Trust in HKSAR Government[7] 28%[8] 29% 27% 23% 23% 25+/-3% +2%
Distrust in HKSAR Government[7] 60%[8] 60% 64% 68% 64% 63+/-4% -1%
Net trust -32%[8] -31% -37% -44% -41% -39+/-7% +3%
Mean value[7] 2.4[8] 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2+/-0.1

[7]    Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[8]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.6 marks. Her approval rate is 12%, disapproval rate 81%, giving a net popularity of negative 68 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago.

Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 14%, whereas 76% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 62 percentage points. The mean score is 1.8, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 25% of the respondents expressed trust, 63% expressed distrust. The net trust value is negative 39 percentage points. The mean score is 2.2, meaning close to “quite distrust” in general.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the earliest previous survey was conducted from 15 to 21 November, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 13 to 18 December, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures:

16/12/19 Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing.
11/12/19 All members of the Independent Police Complaints Council International Expert Panel quit.
8/12/19 The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest.
4/12/19 The government announces a new round of relief measures.
2/12/19 Financial Secretary Paul Chan forecasts a budget deficit in this fiscal year.
1/12/19 Protesters march along Tsim Sha Tsui.
29/11/19 The police end its siege of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
28/11/19 US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
26/11/19 The Hung Hom Cross-Harbour Tunnel reopens.
25/11/19 The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils.
19/11/19 The police continue to surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
19/11/19 The anti-mask law is ruled to be unconstitutional.
18/11/19 The police continue to surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
17/11/19 The police surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and clash violently with protesters.

Data Analysis

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 68 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 62 percentage points, the net trust value is negative 39 percentage points, figures have not changed much since mid-November.

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