POP releases findings of popularity of CE and the government, Policy Address second follow-up survey and Public Sentiment Index (2019-11-29)

Nov 29, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

 

POP releases findings of popularity of CE and the government,
Policy Address second follow-up survey and Public Sentiment Index

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,008 and 519 Hong Kong residents by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in mid-November. Results show that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.7 marks. Her net popularity is negative 72 percentage points. Her popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago. However, her net popularity has again registered a new record low since she took office and across all CEs in history. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 66 percentage points. The net trust value is negative 41 percentage points. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are negative 37, negative 52 and negative 79 percentage points respectively. The second follow-up survey conducted a month after the Policy Address was delivered shows that people’s appraisal toward the Policy Address is similar to the results of the first follow-up survey conducted a day or two after it was delivered. The net satisfaction rate is negative 66 percentage points while the satisfaction rating is 23.2 marks, both at their lowest since records began in 1997 and 1999 respectively. Meanwhile, people’s appraisal toward CE’s policy direction is also similar to the results of the first follow-up survey that the net satisfaction rate is negative 70 percentage points, again the lowest since record began in 1998. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 54.2, up by 4.0 points from early November. The effective response rates of both surveys are 74.1% and 70.4% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Popularity of CE and
the Government
Policy Address
Second Follow-up Survey
Date of survey : 15-21/11/2019 11-14/11/2019
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size : 1,008 (including 504 landline
and 504 mobile samples)
519 (including 258 landline
and 261 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[1] : 74.1% 70.4%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]    Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[2]    All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and the Government

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 16-19/9/19 30/9-3/10/19 16/10/19 17-23/10/19 1-8/11/19 15-21/11/19 Latest change
Sample size 1,061 1,004 745 1,038 1,016 1,008
Response rate 69.5% 64.5% 80.0% 63.2% 69.4% 74.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Rating of CE Carrie Lam 24.9 22.3 22.7 20.2 19.5 19.7+/-1.8 +0.2
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam 18% 15% 15% 11%[3] 11% 11+/-2% -1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam 74% 80%[3] 79% 82% 82% 82+/-2%
Net approval rate -57% -65%[3] -64% -71% -71% -72+/-4% -1%

[3]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government as well as people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 17-20/6/19 17-19/7/19 15-20/8/19 16-19/9/19 17-23/10/19 15-21/11/19 Latest change
Sample size[4] 1,015 1,002 1,023 1,061 1,038 1,008
Response rate 58.7% 59.8% 68.5% 69.5% 63.2% 74.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] 18%[6] 18% 14% 12% 10% 11+/-3% +1%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] 72%[6] 70% 77%[6] 76% 79% 77+/-3% -2%
Net satisfaction rate -53%[6] -52% -63%[6] -63% -69% -66+/-6% +3%
Mean value[5] 2.0[6] 2.0 1.8[6] 1.8 1.7[6] 1.7+/-0.1
Current economic condition:
Satisfaction rate[5]
31%[6] 28% 25% 19%[6] 19% 20+/-3%
Current economic condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[5]
45% 47% 53%[6] 55% 61%[6] 57+/-3% -4%[6]
Net satisfaction rate -14%[6] -19% -29%[6] -35% -42%[6] -37+/-5% +5%
Mean value[5] 2.7[6] 2.6 2.5[6] 2.4[6] 2.3 2.3+/-0.1
Current livelihood condition:
Satisfaction rate[5]
21%[6] 21% 16%[6] 13% 14% 17+/-2% +3%
Current livelihood condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[5]
62%[6] 64% 69%[6] 70% 71% 69+/-3% -2%
Net satisfaction rate -41%[6] -43% -54%[6] -57% -57% -52+/-5% +5%
Mean value[5] 2.3[6] 2.2 2.1[6] 2.0 2.0 2.1+/-0.1 +0.1[6]
Current political condition:
Satisfaction rate[5]
7%[6] 5% 5% 3%[6] 3% 4+/-1% +1%
Current political condition:
Dissatisfaction rate[5]
81%[6] 87%[6] 88% 85% 88% 83+/-2% -5%[6]
Net satisfaction rate -74%[6] -82%[6] -83% -82% -85% -79+/-3% +6%[6]
Mean value[5] 1.6[6] 1.5[6] 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5+/-0.1 +0.1[6]

[4]    The question on the satisfaction of SARG performance only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned. The sub-sample size for this survey is 668.

[5]    Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[6]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent figures regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey 20-23/5/19 17-20/6/19 17-19/7/19 15-20/8/19 17-23/10/19 15-21/11/19 Latest change
Sample size 686 623 555 632 623 607
Response rate 61.9% 58.7% 59.8% 68.5% 63.2% 74.1%
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding Finding & error
Trust in HKSAR Government[7] 36% 28%[8] 29% 27% 23% 23+/-3% -1%
Distrust in HKSAR Government[7] 50% 60%[8] 60% 64% 68% 64+/-4% -4%
Net trust -14% -32%[8] -31% -37% -44% -41+/-7% +3%
Mean value[7] 2.7 2.4[8] 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2+/-0.1 +0.1

[7]    Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[8]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.7 marks. Her approval rate is 11%, disapproval rate 82%, giving a net popularity of negative 72 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago. However, her net popularity has again registered a new record low since she took office and across all CEs in history.

Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 11%, whereas 77% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 66 percentage points. The mean score is 1.7, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 23% of the respondents expressed trust, 64% expressed distrust. The net trust value is negative 41 percentage points. The mean score is 2.2, meaning close to “quite distrust” in general. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 20%, 17% and 4% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 37, negative 52 and negative 79 percentage points respectively. The mean score of economic condition is 2.3, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general; that of livelihood condition is 2.1, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general; that of political condition is 1.5, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general.

Policy Address Second Follow-up Survey

Results of the Policy Address second follow-up surveys of 2017 to 2019 together with their corresponding instant polls and first follow-up surveys are tabulated below:

Instant poll[9] First
follow-up survey
Second
follow-up survey
Change
2019        
Date of survey 16/10/19 17-18/10/19 11-14/11/19
Sample size 679 512 519
Response rate 80.0% 63.7% 70.4%
Policy Address: Satisfaction rate[10] 17% 11%[11] 9+/-3% -2%
Policy Address: Dissatisfaction rate[10] 65% 73%[11] 75+/-4% +2%
Net satisfaction rate -47% -62%[11] -66+/-6% -4%
Mean value[10] 2.0 1.8[11] 1.7+/-0.1 -0.1
Satisfaction rating of Policy Address 29.7 23.3[11] 23.2+/-2.4 -0.1
Policy direction: Satisfaction rate[10] 11% 9+/-3% -2%
Policy direction: Dissatisfaction rate[10] 78% 79+/-4% +1%
Net satisfaction rate -67% -70+/-5% -3%
Mean value[10] 1.7 1.7+/-0.1
2018        
Date of survey 10/10/18 11-12/10/18 22-24/10/18
Sample size 534 503 1,006
Response rate 65.9% 65.3% 63.4%
Policy Address: Satisfaction rate[10] 33% 32% 30% -2%
Policy Address: Dissatisfaction rate[10] 34% 33% 39% +6%[11]
Net satisfaction rate -1% -1% -9% -8%
Mean value[10] 2.9 2.8 2.8 -0.1
Satisfaction rating of Policy Address 48.5 50.5 49.7 -0.8
Policy direction: Satisfaction rate[10] 42% 39% -3%
Policy direction: Dissatisfaction rate[10] 35% 36% +1%
Net satisfaction rate 7% 2% -5%
Mean value[10] 3.0 2.9
2017        
Date of survey 11/10/17 12-13/10/17 6-7/11/17
Sample size 526 508 501
Response rate 63.5% 60.8% 59.5%
Policy Address: Satisfaction rate[10] 48% 43%[11] 39% -4%
Policy Address: Dissatisfaction rate[10] 14% 24%[11] 32% +8%[11]
Net satisfaction rate 34% 18%[11] 7% -11%[11]
Mean value[10] 3.5 3.3[11] 3.0 -0.3[11]
Satisfaction rating of Policy Address 62.4 60.6 54.2 -6.4[11]
Policy direction: Satisfaction rate[10] 50% 41% -9%[11]
Policy direction: Dissatisfaction rate[10] 22% 30% +8%[11]
Net satisfaction rate 28% 12% -16%[11]
Mean value[10] 3.4 3.1 -0.3[11]

[9]    Questions in instant surveys would exclude respondents who had not heard of / did not have any knowledge of the Policy Address. Figures in the table are subsample sizes.

[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[11] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The second follow-up survey conducted a month after the Policy Address was delivered shows that 9% were satisfied with the Policy Address and 75% were dissatisfied, thus a net satisfaction rate of negative 66 percentage points. The mean value was 1.7, meaning in between “quite dissatisfied / not quite satisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. The satisfaction rating was 23.2 marks. All figures are similar to the results of the first follow-up survey, though the net satisfaction rate and the rating are again at their lowest since records began in 1997 and 1999 respectively.

The survey also shows that 9% were satisfied with Carrie Lam’s policy direction, while 79% expressed dissatisfaction, thus a net satisfaction rate of negative 70 percentage points. All figures are again similar to the results of the first follow-up survey and also at the lowest since record began in 1998. The mean value was 1.7, meaning in between “quite dissatisfied / not quite satisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general.

Public Sentiment Index

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.

The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

Latest figure Public Sentiment Index
(PSI): 54.2 (+4.0)
Government Appraisal
(GA): 51.1 (+1.7)
Society Appraisal
(SA): 59.7 (+5.5)

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

Cut-off date 4/9/19 19/9/19 3/10/19 23/10/19 8/11/19 21/11/19 Latest change
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) 58.5 55.9 54.7 50.5 50.2 54.2 +4.0
Government Appraisal (GA) 57.3 57.3 55.1 49.9 49.4 51.1 +1.7
Rating of CE 25.4 24.9 22.3 20.2 19.5 19.7 +0.2
Net approval rate of CE -55% -57% -65% -71% -71% -72% -1%
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG 1.8[13] 1.8 1.8[13] 1.7 1.7[13] 1.7
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG 2.2[13] 2.2[13] 2.2[13] 2.1 2.1[13] 2.2 +0.1
Society Appraisal (SA) 61.1[13] 56.6 56.6[13] 54.2 54.2[13] 59.7 +5.5
People’s satisfaction with political condition 1.4[13] 1.4 1.4[13] 1.4 1.4[13] 1.5 +0.1
Weighting index of political condition 0.32[13] 0.32[13] 0.32[13] 0.32[13] 0.32[13] 0.32[13]
People’s satisfaction with economic condition 2.5[13] 2.4 2.4[13] 2.3 2.3[13] 2.3
Weighting index of economic condition 0.34[13] 0.34[13] 0.34[13] 0.34[13] 0.34[13] 0.34[13]
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition 2.1[13] 2.0 2.0[13] 2.0 2.0[13] 2.1 +0.1
Weighting index of livelihood condition 0.35[13] 0.35[13] 0.35[13] 0.35[13] 0.35[13] 0.35[13]

[12] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

Score value Percentile Score value Percentile
140-200 Highest 1% 0-60 Lowest 1%
125 Highest 5% 75 Lowest 5%
120 Highest 10% 80 Lowest 10%
110 Highest 25% 90 Lowest 25%
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below

The latest PSI stands at 54.2, up by 4.0 points from early November. It can be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 1.7 points to 51.1, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 5.5 points to 59.7. They can both be considered as among the worst 1%.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the earliest previous survey was conducted from 17 to 18 October, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 15 to 21 November, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures:

20/11/19 The US Senate passes the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
19/11/19 The police continue to surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
19/11/19 The anti-mask law is ruled to be unconstitutional.
18/11/19 The police continue to surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
17/11/19 The police surround the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and clash violently with protesters.
16/11/19 The People’s Liberation Army clears roadblocks.
15/11/19 Protesters stay in the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
14/11/19 Xi Jinping expresses his views on Hong Kong.
13/11/19 The Education Bureau announces that classes will be suspended as conflicts continue.
12/11/19 Violent conflicts between protestors and the police occur in the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
11/11/19 A traffic policeman fires three live rounds at a protester.
10/11/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong.
8/11/19 HKUST student who fell from height in Tseung Kwan O passes away.
6/11/19 Vice Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets with Carrie Lam.
6/11/19 Junius Ho is attacked with a knife.
2/11/19 Protests and conflicts break out on Hong Kong Island.
1/11/19 The press conference on the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Communist Party of China Central Committee is held.
29/10/19 Nomination of Joshua Wong for District Council election is ruled to be invalid.
28/10/19 Journalists protest against police violence targeting journalists during police press conference.
25/10/19 The High Court grants an interim injunction to restrain unlawful publishing of the personal data of police officers and their family members.
23/10/19 Chan Tong-kai is released from prison.
22/10/19 Taiwan requests to send officers to Hong Kong to escort Chan Tong-kai to Taiwan for trial.
20/10/19 Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Kowloon district.

Data Analysis

Our latest survey conducted before the District Council Election shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 19.7 marks. Her net popularity is negative 72 percentage points. Her popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago. However, her net popularity has again registered a new record low since she took office and across all CEs in history. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 66 percentage points. The net trust value is negative 41 percentage points. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are negative 37, negative 52 and negative 79 percentage points respectively.

The second follow-up survey conducted a month after the Policy Address was delivered shows that people’s appraisal toward the Policy Address is similar to the results of the first follow-up survey conducted a day or two after it was delivered. The net satisfaction rate is negative 66 percentage points while the satisfaction rating is 23.2 marks, both at their lowest since records began in 1997 and 1999 respectively. Meanwhile, people’s appraisal toward CE’s policy direction is also similar to the results of the first follow-up survey that the net satisfaction rate is negative 70 percentage points, again the lowest since record began in 1998.

As for the PSI, the latest figure is 54.2, up by 4.0 points from early November.

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